Western Mass Regional Weather for November 15, 2022


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DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL
–Sun early today, increasing clouds with time
–Snow, sleet or rain arrives between 9pm-Midnight west to east
–Precip should go over to mostly snow (except southern areas of northern CT) into the pre-dawn hours
–This is when most accumulation blankets the ground
–Generally Coating to 2″ in the valley north of the Pike up to the MA/VT state line and points east into CMass
–1-4″ in the western hilltowns, Berkshires, northern Litchfields, Taconics, southwest NH and valley areas of southeast VT and southwest VT
–3-6″ in the southern Greens of VT
–Slush to nothing near Springfield points east and south with snow and ice quickly changing to rain before dawn
–Some freezing rain and icing above 1000 feet in the high elevations west of the I-91 corridor after snow changes over
–Rain showers and any left over icing quit by early afternoon Wednesday
–Fair and cool weather Thursday through Monday with plenty of sunshine
–NOTE: It’s the first winter weather event: everybody forgets how to drive in it by about 10%, so practice caution on snow and ice covered roads overnight into early Wednesday morning, signed, Uncle Dave

Before we jump into the weather discussion/details below, let’s check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with their newest location in West Springfield, MA.
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
DHTWN Is Sponsored by Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company: No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.
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***DHTWN DAILY WEATHER REPORT***
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NWS ALERTS
–Winter Weather Advisories are up for the Berkshires, the Litchfields, the Taconics, Hartford County CT, the western hilltowns in WMass, Franklin County, northern Worcester County, southern VT and southwest NH for overnight into Wednesday morning for varying amounts of snow and ice.

DHTWN REMINDER
–The odds of being a human is 1 in 400,000 billion… make it count, even in a small way (see Kurt Vonnegut quote at end of post)

DAILY CELESTIAL (STAR):
–OUR STAR RISES AT: 6:40am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 4:28pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 9 hours and 48 minutes

DAILY CELESTIAL (MOON):
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 10:26pm tonight
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 1:15pm tomorrow afternoon
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Waning Gibbous (60.4%)
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DAILY TERRESTRIAL (ZoneCast)
ZONE 1 (Northern Region)
Southern VT, Southwest NH, N. Taconics NY
–High Temps: Upper 30s to Low 40s
–Low Temps: Upper 20s
–Wind: Calm to Light
–Skies: Sunny early, then increasing clouds
–Precipitation: None today, snow arrives between 10pm-Midnight

ZONE 2 (Central Region)
WMass, N. CMass, N. Litchfield County, C./S. Taconics NY
–High Temps: Low to Mid 40s
–Low Temps: Upper 20s to Low 30s
–Wind: Calm to Light
–Skies: Sunny early, then increasing clouds
–Precipitation: None today, snow, possibly starting as rain or sleet, arrives between 9pm-11pm

ZONE 3 (Southern Region)
S. CMass, S. Litchfield County, NC.CT, & NE.CT
–High Temps: Low to Mid 40s
–Low Temps: Low 30s
–Wind: Calm to Light
–Skies: Sunny early, then increasing clouds
–Precipitation: None today, then snow, sleet or rain (depending on elevation and how far west or east you are), arrives between 9pm-11pm.
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MORNING DISCUSSION
Good morning everybody, I try to put as much summary detail into the tops of these reports, so I hope you find that useful. As for the discussion below, I’ll talk more about some of the uncertainties with tonight’s system, and will do so via my Famous-Since-1931-Double–Dash–Delivery–System

–We’ve got high pressure moving east of us today, which will produce southeasterly flow tonight: not ideal for a full on snowstorm
–However, for today, we’ll start off with some sunshine and go to increasing clouds, with an anticipated silvery snow sky which gets a mention in one of the Haikus in my 2023 Weather Calendar this year (the sale for which ends *this* Sunday, so I hope you’ll pick up a copy or more for holiday gifts *Wink* and *Link* above and below)
–Meanwhile, our clouds are increasing because we have low pressure tracking northeast into the eastern Great Lakes with an associated upper trough
–Secondary cyclogenesis (cyclo means storm, genesis mean birth, or “storm birth”) occurs along the Mid-Atlantic coast and lifts northeast tonight to somewhere between eastern Long Island and Narragansett Bay RI
–This is a “coastal hugger” track, and with a high to our east-northeast, will send milder, above-freezing air surging northward about a mile above our heads after midnight
–This means snow will change to ice for folks above 1000 feet and rain for valley folks, likely before or around dawn, sooner to the south over northern CT, later to the north near and north of the MA/VT-NH state line
–Highs today will reach the upper 30s to mid 40s with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s overnight, which will then rise during Wednesday morning
–Precipitation arrives between 9pm and Midnight most likely, and even though it may be mixed at first, it should change to all snow for 2-6 hours as evaporative cooling cools the surface air
–It is roughly a Midnight to 4am time span when accumulating snow will occur before we mix or change to ice or rain
–Generally I think Springfield south and east sees a slushy coating to nothing with mostly rain when all is said and done
–Central and northern valley, northern Worcester County, southwest NH, Brattleboro and Bennington “metro” areas, the western hilltowns, northern Litchfields and Berkshires should see a coating to 3″ of snow with some ice above 1000 feet
–The southern Greens, perhaps down into northeasternmost Berkshires and westernmost Franklin County in higher peaks 2-5″ with ice on top, maybe someone hits 6″
–Everyone turns to ice at elevation and rain in the valleys Wednesday morning, but we can expect slippery travel in the areas that get snow and ice, so give yourself extra time in the morning
–Any precip ships out of here by early to mid afternoon Wednesday with highs either side of 40º and lows in the 20s as we clear out
–Thursday through Monday looks cold and fair with plenty of sun and highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s

That does it for now, have a great day, and remember that there’s only 6 days left to Order my Educational, Practical, WMass-centric, and highly Gift-able Weather Wall Calendar, so be sure to order or get more info today (link below):

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AND REMEMBER…
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut

By |2022-11-15T07:14:23-05:00November 15, 2022|Current Forecast|

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