Good morning everybody, while we all know the weather can change during the day after a morning prognostication, I feel it important to restate that it’s always important to not listen to a forecast a day, two days, or four days out and stay stuck on it.

It’s the weather, energy and elements interacting within a fluid known as “air” or our Troposphere, and it changes, and as of now, it looks like the weekend has taken a positive change in relation to outdoor plans.

Will it be quite humid? Yes.

Will it be warmer? Yes.

Will a good number of us see showers, downpours or a thunderstorm at some point? Yes.

Will it be raining the whole time and be a washout? No.

And this is the message for this weekend. Yes, at any point we could get wet, but other than perhaps Saturday morning I do not anticipate washout periods as of this writing.

We’ll talk more about next week, but let’s pick through the nutshells to pull out the details below.
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>>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<< --Overall partly sunny today with periods of sun and clouds (clouds more late in the day) with humidity increasing --A few showers are possible later in the afternoon and evening, but may stay south of the Pike --Quite muggy overnight and through the weekend --Clouds increase later tonight and a period of showers, downpours and thunderstorms likely move northeast through the greater WMass region --Rain could fall heavily at times Saturday morning with downpours and thunderstorms possible, decreasing by early afternoon --Then each weekend day should feature scattered showers or thunderstorms as the normal part of a muggy, warm afternoon cycle with less showers by Saturday early evening into Sunday morning --By next week, we start it all over again with a new upper level low that brings periods of showers, downpours and thunderstorms, with severe storms possible Monday night into Tuesday --Warm and muggy conditions, with some signs of a lessening of shower activity by Thursday, but for now let's check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with their newest location in the Stop & Shop Plaza on King Street in Northampton, MA. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<< Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company... No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.
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>>> WEATHER DISCUSSION <<< To start, I hope things go your way today and that you feel some love in your life in some way. I attended the Michael Franti concert last night, and feel a renewed commitment to keep my heart more open during my days and nights, because just as he talks about his struggles in life, I have mine too, and his love vibe was and is so infectious. I'm very grateful to that man this morn. Moving on to our weather, like I intimated and explained a bit above, we're looking at a mixed weekend, but an improved weather picture as of this morning. We have departing high pressure moving away from New England, though a bit more slowly which should help turn today into a mostly dry day with some scattered showers possible late, but those may stay shunted south of the Pike, we'll see how it plays out. Regardless of the slower timing, the march and surge of more humid air will not be denied this weekend, and we should see higher dewpoints and muggier air across much of our region by this evening. Skies should average partly sunny with highs reaching the 75-80º range today, and with lows in the low to mid 60s, again with a few showers possible this evening. As we move through tonight, it does appear that a wave of low pressure will press into this very muggy air and produce a period of showers, downpours and a few thunderstorms overnight tonight into Saturday morning, with heavy rain for some (see attached potential radar depiction). This cluster of inclement conditions should move through by early afternoon tomorrow, with improving conditions and less showers (though still possible) by mid to late afternoon into Saturday night and Sunday morning. Highs tomorrow will reach the mid to upper 70s, which will be the cooler of the two weekend days, with continued very humid conditions. Lows will be in the 60s. For Sunday, it looks warmer, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s with a few sunny breaks possible. Despite a few morning showers it should start off drier, and then with the peak heat of the day, instability will be maximized and we'll see some scattered showers, downpours and thunderstorms develop, but focus on the word "scattered". I will be updating during the weekend to adjust for any changes, but this is how things look to shake out now. This is better news for Green River Fest attendees or those thinking of going, though you'll still need to have some rain gear/prep in place, that's all. Our upper low in the eastern U.S. and Midwest moves through this weekend with these expected weather results, and then another upper low drops south into the Great Lakes and tracks east, bringing the chance for more showers and storms early to middle of next week. Monday looks quite warm with highs similar to Sunday in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and scattered showers will be possible again. But it is the Monday night into Tuesday timeframe that features the best chance for heavier weather, including strong to severe thunderstorms, so stay tuned for updates on that period as we get closer. Really, at any point during next week we should see scattered showers or a thunderstorm at any point as we will be locked into this new humid air mass regime for the time being, but temps should tamp down into the 70s toward the second half of the week. I will keep you updated this weekend, and about next week as we get closer, so for now, have a great day and be nice to somebody, it ripples outward. <3