>>>POST SECTIONS<<< --DHTWN's Reminder (Shelter) --Weekly Nutshell (Overall impact list) --Sponsor Note (Tandem Bagel Co.) --NWS Alerts (Advisories, Warnings, Watches) --Celestial Data (Sun/Moon info) --Regional Summaries (Local expectations) --Morning Discussion (Detailed Weather Story) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> DHTWN REMINDER <<< If you have a roof over your head and a set of walls to enclose you in a structure that protects you from the elements, it's hard to put into words the level of good fortune you possess - be grateful for and thank your shelter for keeping you dry, warm, safe, and protected. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<< --Mostly sunny start for today, temps quickly rise into the 70s to near 80º --Clouds build in toward mid-day, high ones first, lower ones later --A squall line of showers, downpours and thunderstorms pushes into the Litchfields, Taconics and Berkshires by early afternoon --Some isolated damaging straight line wind gusts are possible of 40-60mph --Heavy rain, frequent lightning and hail are also threats --After about 6-8pm only isolated showers or storms remain and quit by 10pm --Mostly cloudy overnight with partly sunny skies expected Thursday with a few afternoon showers possible --More showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday, a threat I will explore more starting tomorrow --High temps past today should in the upper 60s to mid 70s range --Sunday through Tuesday look like a mixed of sun and clouds with afternoon showers scattered about each day, but for now let's check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with their newest location in the Stop & Shop Plaza on King Street in Northampton, MA. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<< Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company... No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.

>>> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALERTS <<< --None but Patchy Dense Fog is observed this morning, and strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon >>> YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS <<< STAR: --OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:13am this morning --OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 8:27pm this evening --TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 15 hours and 14 minutes --PEAK LIGHT IS CRESTING NEXT TWO WEEKS!!! MOON: --OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 5:10pm this afternoon --OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 3:13am tomorrow morning --MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest --MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast --MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (14.3%) >>> YOUR DAILY TERRESTRIALS <<< ZONE 1 - Northern Region (Southern VT, Southwest NH) --High Temps (Today): Low to Mid 70s --Low Temps (Tonight): Low to Mid 50s --High Temps (Tomorrow): Low to Mid 70s --Winds: Light southerly today but strong/severe storms may cause gusts 40-60mph... light northwest wind Thursday --Sky Cover: Mostly Sunny early, then clouds increase this afternoon, partly sunny Thursday --Precipitation: Dry until afternoon when scattered showers and thunderstorms move through 2-8pm, quitting by 10pm... drier tomorrow but isolated afternoon showers --NWS Alerts / Nut Notes: Patchy fog possible this morning ZONE 2 - Central Region (Western MA, North-Central MA, Northern Litchfield CT) --High Temps (Today): Mid to Upper 70s --Low Temps (Tonight): Low to Mid 50s --High Temps (Tomorrow): Mid to Upper 70s --Winds: Light southerly today but strong/severe storms may cause gusts 40-60mph... light northwest wind Thursday --Sky Cover: Mostly Sunny early, then clouds increase this afternoon, partly sunny Thursday --Precipitation: Dry until afternoon when scattered showers and thunderstorms move through 2-8pm, quitting by 10pm... drier tomorrow but isolated afternoon showers --NWS Alerts / Nut Notes: Patchy fog possible this morning ZONE 3 - Southern Region (South-Central MA, Northern CT) --High Temps (Today): Mid to Upper 70s --Low Temps (Tonight): Low to Mid 50s --High Temps (Tomorrow): Mid to Upper 70s --Winds: Light southerly today but strong/severe storms may cause gusts 40-60mph... light northwest wind Thursday --Sky Cover: Mostly Sunny early, then clouds increase this afternoon, partly sunny Thursday --Precipitation: Dry until afternoon when scattered showers and thunderstorms move through 2-8pm, quitting by 10pm... drier tomorrow but isolated afternoon showers --NWS Alerts / Nut Notes: Patchy fog possible this morning >>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<< Good morning folks, believe it or not we're STILL hurtling through the Cosmos at the rate of about 12 million miles per day, so even though you wake up in the same bed, it's not in the same point in Space as it was yesterday as we travel roughly the distance from Earth to our star every 8 days #TheMoreYouKnow. As for more earthly and regionally-relevant concerns, we're starting off with some patchy dense fog, but for those without, it's a gorgeously sunny morning. Temps should come up quick, which is an important piece to solving the puzzle of how strong or severe t-storms could be this afternoon. We'll need the surface to heat up towards 80º along with dewpoints rising toward 65º to maximize our severe weather threat (not that we WANT that), as it is the low-level lapse rates and instability that could push some of these storms into severe levels of strength. This is because wind shear (the difference in wind speed and/or direction with height) will be decent but not super strong to contribute to storm organization, and the mid-levels won't be very unstable, so there's a few "dings" against the severe weather threat, but nonetheless, a Level 1 out of 5 alert is up for isolated severe storms today. The main threat would be damaging straight line wind gusts, with hail or street flooding as secondary threats. I will be updating you all around noon, prior to the onset of this anticipated squall line. Highs reach the mid to upper 70s, and while southerly winds should be lighter, any storm-related gusts could reach 40-60mph, which is enough to knock down branches or even some trees, so a few outages are also possible. The main timing is 2-8pm, starting in northwest CT and into the southern Berkshires, and spreading northeast from there, with the valley getting into it more towards later afternoon. Everything winds down before midnight with lows in the 50s, which sets us up for a calmer Thursday. Thursday is a bit of a lull as some drier air and higher pressures moves in providing us with a partly to mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with a few afternoon showers possible. Lows drop to the low to mid 50s. For Friday, another wave swings around our old Great Lakes upper low and brings more showers and thunderstorms into the region. These showers could last through Friday night and fire again on Saturday, so at this point I would say Sunday is the weekend pick. Still, we can't rule out afternoon showers from Sunday through Tuesday, but I will need more time to parse out finer details. Still, our upper low should be moving out of here during this period, and I don't see any big warm-ups behind it. Please stay tuned to my page today as I will be updating all day long as I go into storm coverage mode starting around noon or so until the threat has passed us, and follow me on Twitter at https://twitter.com/DHTheWeatherNut Thanks, and have a great day! >>> BE KIND <<< “Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you've got to be kind.” --Kurt Vonnegut