Good morning everybody, we have woken up to yet another very muggy morning, and many dew points are already in the upper 60s to mid 70s with warm temps as well!

This unsettled, muggy, warm and wet pattern has been more or less relentless since mid to late June, and the wave starts to break later tonight into tomorrow, with one more day of expected impactful and potentially severe summer weather.

It’s been quite slog for all of us, and devastating for some, especially our farmers who keep us fed with amazing local produce and foods, so if you want to support them generally, you can visit the website to the Massachusetts Farm Resiliency Fund at https://www.unitedwaycm.org/farmfund to learn more.

As for myself, after today and tonight, I am going to take a couple of days away to get some rest, it’s been a long slog and I’m no spring chicken, so I need to get some sleep and turn my brain off for a couple of days, so after tonight, I will return on Tuesday morning based on the calmness of Sunday and Monday’s outlook.

As for today and the pattern-changing event being advertised, OBVIOUSLY we had a fairly false alarm on that last week when it looked like this past week was going to be drier, and we all know how that turned out.

So I’m not going to pretend there’s not a “Boy Who Cried Wolf” piece at play, and I’m also not going to say that we’ll see sunny and dry conditions for 4 days in a row Sunday through Wednesday: there could be a few isolated to scattered showers early week, but in general, it really is looking more solidly nicer, drier, less humid, way less rainy, and with no severe weather expected…unlike today, but before we get into this afternoon’s severe weather details let’s check a note from our local weekend sponsor, #GerardGhazeyBatesPC, an estate planning law firm in Northampton, MA.
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>>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<< Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Gerard, Ghazey & Bates, P.C. GGBPC is a Northampton-based law firm regarded as the voice of pragmatic and well-reasoned estate planning, elder law and tax guidance in Western Massachusetts. The firm specializes in estate planning law, and expertly handles other matters such as Elder Law, Tax Law, as well as Real Estate purchase, sales, and refinance transactions. Contact GGBPC today to see how they can help! Click: https://www.ggbpc.com/ >>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<< We've got a nice start to the day with a partly sunny mix across the region, and if you caught a sweet sunrise pic, please post below! It's very humid, and will be this way through the day and into the midnight hours. Heat Advisories have been hoisted for southern MA into northern CT for heat indices that may push up to the mid 90s, but it's probably more precautionary than anything, as highs today likely hover in the upper 70s to mid 80s with most heat indices not rising above the upper 80s to low 90s, but if some sun pops toward mid day for long enough we could spike up there. Clouds will become more numerous as the day wears on and low pressure pushes east along with a cold frontal boundary. We'll see some showers, or even a few isolated downpours or a thunderstorm scattered about at any point through mid-afternoon, and have some pushing into northwest CT at the 8am hour. These "table setters" could help amplify the flash flood threat for street flooding later, by adding additional water into saturated soils prior to the main clusters and lines of showers, downpours and storms later afternoon into this evening with our cold front. So, some scattered showers or a storm is possible through about 3pm. Then, we'll have a cold frontal boundary and impulse pushing into our region from west-northwest to east-southeast and arriving toward the NY/CT-MA-VT state boundary around 3-5pm, and pushing east from there through our region with clusters of showers, downpours, and thunderstorms some of which are likely to be strong and even severe. The best chance for severe thunderstorms capable of producing straight line wind damage, flash flooding, or even some hail or a weak tornado is generally in a line from Pittsfield to Northampton/Amherst to just north of Worcester and points south down into northern CT. However, anyone could see a strong to severe thunderstorm later this afternoon and evening. Again, main impact timeframe is 4-9pm from west to east, and if we get enough of a dry air flush on the back side, perhaps that ends a bit earlier, and hopefully that's the case. By about 9pm give or take, we should see activity pushing into eastern and southeast MA and RI and out the greater WMass region. The Whooshening will then be upon us as substantially drier and lower humidity air moves in behind the front with lows dropping into the 50s to low 60s by Sunday morning. Sunday will definitely be the pick of the weekend if you ask me, with sunny skies, and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s in the western high terrain, and the 70s to near 80º for the rest of us with dewpoints falling into the 50s, woo hoo! We'll have light northwest flow to thank for that, and lows will be firmly in the 50s.... aaaahhhhhhh.... We may see an isolated shower on Monday, and possibly even Tuesday, but generally we should be dry, mostly sunny, and see highs in the upper 60s to low 70s in the western high terrain and 70s elsewhere with lows in the 50s and continued low humidity, lighter northwest wind, and generally fair weather. This lasts into Wednesday, and possibly even Thursday too!! However, the flow will turn southerly by Thursday and we'll warm up a bit and also see humidity increase with another chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday prior to what looks like the potential for a nice weekend to follow, but that's a long time away, and for now, let's just focus on what's coming today and getting through the exclamation point on a very, very rough and unsettled pattern that has brought flooding, wind damage, structure fires, and even a tornado the other day. We're almost to a local finish line, hang in there, and stay tuned for updates later today! >>> BE KIND <<< “Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you've got to be kind.” --Kurt Vonnegut