>>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<< --A few scattered lighter showers in northwest MA and SVT this morning, with a few others as times goes on --Fairly relaxed activity until we get to mid-day --Heat Advisories are up for highs upper 80s to low 90s combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s --This will produce head indices into the mid to upper 90s --Periods of sun and clouds, mixed sky morning into early afternoon --A mid-level system will be racing into northern New England, and keep us in the warm/humid sector --Strong low level wind shear (a changing with wind speed and direction with height in the low levels) will overspread the region by early to mid afternoon --Showers, downpours and thunderstorms will form in this environment, and be isolated to scattered early afternoon --Low-level turning of the air may help spawn either a tornado or two, and/or produce strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging straight-line wind gusts in isolated pockets --By mid to later afternoon, isolated supercellular storms likely congeal into clusters or lines of downpours and storms that likely produce a couple of areas of flash flooding before/by early evening --Activity should wind down by or even before sunset, with a few showers possible that linger after sunset --Friday is hot and very humid, peak heat with highs upper 80s to mid 90s with sunshine --Saturday features a strong cold front moving into the region by afternoon and evening, which will bring a chance for more strong to severe thunderstorms, heat and humidity continues --Sunday behind the front is much nicer, cooler, drier, isolated shower possible --This new air mass continues into the early part of next week and while it's likely not 100% dry, any showers should be isolated to widely scattered with more pleasant temps and lower humidity levels, but before we talk details let's check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with their newest location in the Stop & Shop Plaza on King Street in Northampton, MA. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<< Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company... No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.

>>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<< Good morning everybody, we've got a potential severe weather day ahead of us. As we know, not everybody is going to see a strong to severe thunderstorm, or a tornado, or a flash flood, but all of those threats are possible this afternoon anywhere in the greater WMass region which includes WMass, CMass, northern CT, southern VT and southwest NH. This morning is calm with a few scattered showers in spots, mainly northwest MA into SVT/SWNH early on. We've got a decent amount of cloudiness moving into the region related to the old Mesoscale Convective Complex that emanated from Lake Michigan yesterday (an MCC is just an old t-storm cluster that loosely holds together as it travels east overnight when conditions aren't as ripe for storm development). This will help to prevent surface heating from maximizing this morning, but some sunny breaks are expected to contribute to growing surface instability by late morning into early afternoon. If we're "lucky" (in terms wind damage threats), clouds will win out and we'll end up with showers, downpours and thunderstorms this afternoon with flash flooding being the main concern -- that's horrible enough, but it'd be nice to avoid wind issues, and tornadoes kinda suck the last time I checked. However, we do have a low-level wind shear moving into the region late morning into the mid afternoon, and it is this 1-4pm portion of our impact timeframe (mainly 1pm-6pm or maybe 7pm) when this low level turning of the wind would combine with other parameters and produce a tornado or two, or a few thunderstorms capable of delivering strong straight line wind gusts of 40-65mph in bursts that could down some trees and knock out power for some. I will provide another update around mid-day so watch for that. In addition, it will be very warm to hot, and very humid, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, and dewpoints in the low to miid 70s, and Heat Advisories have been hoisted. Flood Watches are also up, and it is the latter half of the impact period (3-7pm) where flash flooding may become the predominant threat as downpours and storms lay out in a west-southwest to east-northeast axis, tracking/training over the same areas. I "think" that could be more likely to set up along or north of the Route 9 corridor in MA (northern Hampshire or Franklin County) but it could happen anywhere, really. All of this activity dies down by/around sunset and lows will only dip into the upper 60s to low 70s. Friday is the hottest day of this stretch as an upper high pressure ridge moves east into the region, and bakes us out, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with high humidity, and heat indices pushing to 100º or a little more tomorrow, but at least it will be rain-free. Lows will provide no relief, only hanging in the low to mid 70s and very humid Friday night. Saturday is the last severe weather potential day for while it appears, as we will have a cold front slicing into the region. Timing looks to be later in the afternoon and early evening with strong to severe thunderstorms possible, and highs in the 80s to low 90s for one last hot and humid day. Behind the front, we cool down into northwest flow with highs ini the 70s to low 80s, with much lower humidity: I'm calling it The Calmening after what has become yet another busy and impactful weather week. While not rain-free 100% of the time for all of us, only a few isolated showers look possible Monday into Wednesday, and it should generally be a calmer weather pattern before the chance for more showers and storms by next Thursday. Stay weather aware today, and I will update again mid-day, more then... >>> BE KIND <<< “Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you've got to be kind.” --Kurt Vonnegut