[7:12AM TUE 7/16/24] HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING TO OR OVER 100º… STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-91 CORRIDOR… TANGLEWOOD SHOULD BE ON NOTICE FOR THE PRETENDERS SHOW… IMPACT TIME RANGE IS 6-10PM FROM BERKSHIRES TO WORCESTER METRO… RINSE AND REPEAT TOMORROW WITH HIGH HEAT/HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ONSET WITH BETTER PARAMETERS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS… COLD FRONT SWEEPS AT NIGHT, WE DRY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR SENDS THIS PAST MUGGY MONTH SEAWARD AND INTO THE MOLD-BIN OF HISTORY…
TABLE OF CONTENTS
* Daily Celestials (Sun/Moon Data)
* Sponsor Note
* Join My Newsletter (& get my Top12WMassStorms ebook!)
* Morning Discussion
* TIP: Scroll below for sections, or read all
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YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
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STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:29am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 8:23pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 54 minutes
MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 4:17pm this afternoon
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Southeast
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 1:26am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Southwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Gibbous (73.5%)
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR
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Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons, and Tandem Bagel Company… No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With *New Pizza Bagels(!)*, along with bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go.
You can either A) visit them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and/or West Springfield, B) hire them to cater your next event, or C) use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website and clicking the “Catering” or “Order Online” links.
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DAVE’S WEEKLY NEWSLETTER (Top 12 WMass Storms)
DAVE’S MOBILE APP (Late 2024 Release)
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YOUR MORNING DISCUSSION
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Good morning everybody, we are getting closer and closer to our pattern change and highly anticipated air mass replacement event (HAAMRE), and this writer couldn’t be more thrilled, especially since I’ve fallen into a funk and I can’t get up – come on 50s dewpoints!
Yes, we know it’s going to be hot and humid today and tomorrow with highs in the 90s, and heat indices in the mid 90s to mid 100s (not 150, but 105…), and that should not be minimized in terms of staying hydrated, taking cooling breaks, and staying indoors if possible if you have infirmities.
However, I expect another round of showers, downpours and thunderstorms in the form of a squall line to push through this evening as a another shortwave swings into the region and acts on the instability and moisture in place ahead of its arrival.
The timing of this is about 6-10pm, so while that’s good (later arrival means less surface heating, and less instability than if they arrived earlier), but storms should be more potent as they come into the Berkshires, which could impact The Pretenders concert at Tanglewood.
The hope for any of us, is that this will be in the form a line that hits and leaves, and doesn’t keep regenerating a bunch of downpours and strong storms like yesterday or other days we’ve seen in this 4-week long heat, humid, and stormy stretch.
Still, if any bow echoes form in the line as it moves, we could see a few pockets of wind damage from strong gusts 40-60mph, along with a few outages.
This line should keep on trucking east, and slowly weaken as it does so, and is over the Pioneer Valley either side of 8pm the way it looks now.
After that activity passes, lows will drop to either side of 70º as humidity continues overnight.
Wednesday represents not only the last day of this current heat wave, but also the last day of a month-long heat and humidity pattern that produced many downpours and strong to severe thunderstorms through that time period with multiple wind damage reports and at least one tornado during that time.
Highs will again reach the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat indices cresting toward or over 100º, but this time a strong cold front will be pushing into the region late on Wednesday.
Ahead of that, areas of showers, downpours and thunderstorms will be developing through the help of even higher instability than today, plenty of moisture, stronger wind shear aloft, and forcing from the cold front.
All of this will give us a more widespread chance for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, street flooding, frequent lightning and larger hail between about 2-9pm.
It won’t be stormy for everyone for those 7 hours, but cells will be scattered and possible across the greater WMass region at any time during that timeframe.
The front passes through tomorrow night with lows in the mid to upper 60s, and after a few Thursday morning showers, drier air will be filtering into the region, along with more sunshine by Thursday afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Thursday night will bottom out in the 55-60º range with much drier air sweeping into the region, so open up those windows!
Friday through the weekend (and possibly into early next week) looks to feature abundant sunshine, highs in the low to mid 80s, and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s witih mostly clear skies
In other words, once we get through these next two days of hot, humid, and stormy weather, we’ll be turning the corner to cooler, calmer and drier conditions, and to that I say praise be.
I will update by mid-afternoon regarding thunderstorm potential for tonight.
Have a great day!
“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell