>>>POST SECTIONS<<< --DHTWN's Reminder ('Brows Raisin') --Weekly Nutshell (Overall impact list) --Sponsor Note (Tandem Bagel Co.) --NWS Alerts (Advisories, Warnings, Watches) --Celestial Data (Sun/Moon info) --Regional Summaries (Local expectations) --Morning Discussion (Detailed Weather Story) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> DHTWN REMINDER <<< I get that we're going through a rough weather patch, and that you may be really struggling in your own life as well, but I always find that if I can remember when I wake up to raise my eyebrows as I first look around my bedroom and think about the day, and put a small simple smile "on", it helps set a more positive, or at least hopeful tone to the outlook of the day. What if it ends up only giving you 5-10 minutes of a better mood than you otherwise would have had? I call that progress, a win, a good thing. Life is rough mostly, but we have some relative control in our response to what we face. Hang in there. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<< --Patchy dense fog at Pittsfield, Chicopee, Orange MA and other spots lifts by mid morning --Very warm temps today, well into the 80s to near 90º under partly sunny skies, quite humid --Light southerly wind may gust up to 20mph this afternoon ahead of an incoming cold front that will track northwest to southeast overnight --A few showers can't be ruled out this morning, or this early to mid afternoon --The main action comes tonight and into the pre-dawn hours, so dog owners have your protocols ready to go --A squall line of showers, downpours, and thunderstorms, some strong to even severe (the strongest are west of I-91) will sweep through 9pm-5am --Small hail, strong straight line winds, and even a tornado is possible --The main issue will be renewed flash flooding with downpours and heavy rain expected --Flood Watches are up for SVT and SWNH, and may be expanded south into WMass --More showers and storms are expected Friday, in scattered coverage, but may cause additional flooding, just what we do NOT need --The whole period from Friday into early next week is mainly 80s for highs, 60s for lows, quite warm and very humid throughout --Saturday is a lull, but still with some showers and storms scattered about --Sunday into Monday looks like another shortwave or two bring increased chance for showers and thunderstorms and flooding potential --We may see a break in the action by Wednesday/Thursday with drier air moving in, but now signals show a move back to more unsettled conditions, but before we talk details let's check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with their newest location in the Stop & Shop Plaza on King Street in Northampton, MA. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<< Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company... No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.

>>> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALERTS <<< --Flood Watches are up for southern VT and southwest NH tonight into tomorrow, that may be expanded south into WMass >>> YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS <<< STAR: --OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:26am this morning --OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 8:25pm this evening --TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 59 minutes MOON: --OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 5:20pm this afternoon --MOON SET DIRECTION: Northwest --OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 2:21am tomorrow morning --MOON RISE DIRECTION: Northeast --MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (17.3%) >>> YOUR DAILY TERRESTRIALS <<< ZONE 1 - Northern Region  (Southern VT, Southwest NH)  --High Temps (Today): Mid to Upper 80s --Low Temps (Tonight): Mid to Upper 60s --High Temps (Tomorrow): Upper 70s to Low 80s --Winds: Southerly gusts up to 20mph possible --Sky Cover: Partly sunny today, mostly cloudy tonight, mostly cloudy tomorrow --Precipitation: Isolated shower possible this afternoon, line of strong to severe thunderstorms and downpours tonight may renew flash flooding in spots... we cannot rule out a tornado overnight... more showers/storms tomorrow --NWS Alerts / Nut Notes: Flood Watches are up for SVT and SWNH for more flash flooding potential over the next 36 hours ZONE 2 - Central Region  (Western MA, North-Central MA, Northern Litchfield CT) --High Temps (Today): Upper 80s to 90º --Low Temps (Tonight): Upper 60s to 70º --High Temps (Tomorrow): Low to Mid 80s --Winds: Southerly gusts up to 20mph possible --Sky Cover: Partly sunny today, mostly cloudy tonight, mostly cloudy tomorrow --Precipitation: Isolated shower possible this afternoon, line of strong to severe thunderstorms and downpours tonight may renew flash flooding in spots... we cannot rule out a tornado overnight... more showers/storms tomorrow --NWS Alerts / Nut Notes: None, but Flood Watches may be hoisted later, and I'm concerned for some additional flash flooding in our western hilltowns overnight ZONE 3 - Southern Region  (South-Central MA, Northern CT)  --High Temps (Today): Upper 80s to 90º --Low Temps (Tonight): Upper 60s to low 70s --High Temps (Tomorrow): Low to Mid 80s --Winds: Southerly gusts up to 20mph possible --Sky Cover: Partly sunny today, mostly cloudy tonight, mostly cloudy tomorrow --Precipitation: Isolated shower possible this afternoon, line of thunderstorms and downpours tonight, isolated street flooding possible... more showers/storms tomorrow --NWS Alerts / Nut Notes: Flood Warnings continue for the CT River as it recedes today...  new street flooding is possible overnight into tomorrow >>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<< Good morning everybody, there's no question we're in a rough patch weather-wise. I do not know when this pattern is going to fully shift, but from some folks that I follow, read, and signals I am seeing, the end of the month is the next REAL chance for a lasting shift. Until then, I would expect we'll see brief 2-day drying periods with sunshine, followed by more wet, unsettled summer weather, and with saturated ground, that means the chance for flash flooding is going to be present at least into next week. The next real chance is overnight into tomorrow, and I don't see how some folks in southern and central VT down into northwest MA don't experience additional flash flooding of streets and some streams into Friday morning. The reason for this is we have very moist air in place, and upper level low in central Canada acting as the Voldemort at the center of this recent weather pattern (yes, I'm a Harry Potter freakazoid), and a surface low related to it being hurled northeast up the St. Lawrence River Valley. This low will drag a cold front through our region tonight, and it will have some wind shear associated with it, which refers to stronger winds aloft, but mostly in the lower levels. There will also be some spin in the lower atmosphere as this squall line presses into the region. So, after morning patchy fog lifts and we rise into the 85-90º range with humid conditions and a few showers of the day flit about, this cold front will be tracking into our region around sunset, and some southerly winds may gust up to 20mph as it does so. There will be plenty of instability present as well from the heating of the day, and this should help form a squall line with heavy downpours, thunderstorms, all of which could generate some strong gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning, and even a tornado or two given the low-level spin moving into the region. This tornado threat, while very low, would be most likely to form over northwest MA into SVT. Northern CT may see a weakening of this squall line as it gets to you, but I still expect showers and/or storms overnight. The other issue, of course, is flash flooding, and I expected Flash Flood Warnings will be needed overnight in parts of WMass, VT and NH. Our active night moves through, and then leads to.... another active Friday with periods of showers, downpours and thunderstorms as more energy moves through the region with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. More flash flooding is possible, but it is tonight that the peak of this recent threat exists. Saturday looks like a lull with isolated to scattered showers/storms under partly sunny skies, but another set of shortwaves pivot through the region Sunday into early next week with more chances for showers, downpours, thunderstorms, and flash flooding as the main threat. Only by mid week can we reasonably expect to get a decent fair weather break, but I'm not sure how long it will last so stay tuned for updates over the coming days, and stay with me today here and on Twitter as I will keep you updated into tonight regarding out severe weather threat... one round at a time, folks! I wish you well in all of the storms of your life. >>> BE KIND <<< “Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you've got to be kind.” --Kurt Vonnegut