TABLE OF CONTENTS
* Daily Celestials (Sun/Moon Data)
* Weekly Weather Nutshell
* Morning Discussion
* TIP: Scroll below for sections, or read all
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YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
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STAR:
–OUR STAR WILL RISE AT: 7:08am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 4:58pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 9 hours and 50 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 6:54pm this evening
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 8:49am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Waning Gibbous (97.1%)
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YOUR WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL
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–Very tricky call for the CT River Valley from Greenfield south to Hartford where more rain, sleet or mixed snow/sleet/rain should fall for the bulk of the day
–Rain, sleet and snow develop this morning from southwest to northeast between 7-11am (sooner SW, later NE)
–This storm will happen in two bursts of precip, first is later morning into early afternoon
–If heavy and steady enough, much of the region could flip to snow for a time later morning into early afternoon as it’s cold aloft, with some early-storm accumulations
–More snow at elevation, less in the valleys (Housatonic, Connecticut, Hoosic, Walloomsac, Hudson)
–This first burst should be followed by lighter precip with a flip back to mostly rain or mix in the valley through dinner time, with light snow above 1000 feet (assuming we flip to steadier snow for a time into mid-day)
–Highs in the mid 30s
–Colder air begins to work into the region as the storm tracks east-northeast toward The Benchmark between 6pm-Midnight
–Everyone turns to snow by this time, with snow or snow showers into Monday morning before it quits
–How much back end snow banding develops will determine whether this is mostly a bust (meaning little wintry accumulations in the valley)
–The 9pm Sunday to 9am Monday time period will make or break this as a widespread light to modreate snowstorm, or just an elevation snowstorm with more messy mix, lighter impact valley impacts in terms of snow/sleet accumulations
–I’m leaning toward the latter, but can’t rule out the former
–Snow amounts will range in my region from a coating to an inch in/around Hartford up to 8″ or so (see discussion for amounts section)
–Northeast winds gust 15-25mph Sunday night into Monday
–Storm quits Monday by mid day, with cold and fair conditions into mid week, then milder and fair conditions through late week
–Colder air with snow showers arrives Saturday or Sunday, with colder weather the following week
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YOUR MORNING DISCUSSION
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Good morning everybody, we have a very tricky and marginal storm moving into the the greater WMass region this morning.

From what I can see, the Pioneer Valley of WMass down into north-central CT will have a hard time maintaining accumulating snow today, aside from a potential burst later this morning into mid-day period.

This is an elevation-dependent snowfall through tomorrow mroning for sure, but generally all points east of I-91, and then south of I-90 will likely be even more elevation dependent in terms of who sees snow or mix/rain.

This is due to many reasons, which I will bullet out below in the bust potential section:

BUST POTENTIAL IS GREAT
–Most of us did not drop to the upper 20s overnight for lows, so it’s a bit milder than forecast
–The storm is not going to deepen as quickly or as close to our region which should lower precip amounts in general
–The precip shield during the afternoon will likely be less strong as a result and allow for any morning snow to flip back to rain or a mix in the valley / low elevations
–While we may see a morning burst of heavier precip flipping many of us to snow for a time, the overall lack of heavier/steadier precip through the afternoon will prevent dynamic cooling
–High pressure in Quebec that you need to help provide colder air to intensify a coastal storm is too far north and not very strong
–Ground temps are milder as a result of recent mild temps
–All of this makes accumulation tougher to achieve in lower elevations and the Pioneer Valley floor and down south of the Pike
–Snow totals offered below could bust due to a combination of any or all of these factors

OVERALL SETUP
We are essentially seeing the warm advection burst of the primary low center this morning, which is not really related to the secondary low formation, as the energy transfer from the primary to secondary low center is just getting started near western Maryland.

High elevation snow/sleet, and low elevation rain/mix will continue to push into our region through mid day.

While it’s more likely than not that we see snow develop in the high terrain west of the I-91 corridor in northwestern CT, the eastern Berkshire, western hilltowns, and SVT into SWNH (as well as northern CMass), we may see a burst of snow mid to late morning everywhere generally along and north of the Pike as this first heavier preicp band passes through and draws colder air just aloft down to the ground for a time.

This is going to come down to a one or two degree difference, which is what we mean by the term “marginal” or “marginal temps”.

Then we should see a lighter period of precip during the afternoon witth light rain/mix in the valley, and light snow/sleet in the high terrain.

As our secondary develops south of us this evening, colder air gets pulled south through the greater WMass region between 6pm-Midnight, turning us all back to snow.

How much banding we get on the back edge / northwestern flank of this developing low between 9pm tonight and 9am tomorrow will make or break snow totals offered below to some degree.

SNOW AMOUNTS
>>> C-3″ <<<
-Northern CT (except Litchfield County)
-Central Hampshire and Hampden Counties (the central and lower Pioneer Valley)

>>> 2-5″ <<<
-Central Franklin County (northern Pioneer Valley)
-Eastern Hampshire/Hampden Counties
-Southern CMass
-Northern Litchfield County
-Southern Berkshires
-Hoosic River Valley in northern Berkshire County
-Walloomsac River Valley in southwest VT near Bennington
-Easternmost Windham County VT

>>> 4-8″ <<<
-Northern Berkshires
-Western Hilltowns (higher range further north you go)
-Eastern Franklin County
-Northern CMass
-Eastern Bennington / western Windham County VT
-SWNH

That’s my update for now, I will be monitoring all day, noon and night with updated reports through the next 24 hours, so please stay tuned to this page/resource, and let me know what you’re seeing during the day in your town!

Have a great day!

>>> BE KIND <<<
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut