ALERT: THIS STORM MAY OVERPERFORM FOR THE BERKSHIRES, WESTERN HILLTOWNS AND SVT… AIR IS VERY DRY AND COLD TO START… HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL IN THE EASTERN BERKSHIRES AND WESTERN HILLTOWNS UP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BE POWDERY INITIALLY… SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3″/HOUR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT… SOME MAY SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS WITH SE WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH BY MORNING… ISOLATED OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE… WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE… SNOW ARRIVES 9PM TO MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE… 6:35PM SUNDAY…
Good evening everybody, I hope you had a lovely day. It was quite nice as far as mid-January goes, though a bit chilly out there with highs in the 20s as high clouds worked into the region by late afternoon.
We’ve talked about this storm for days now, and it’s finally arriving tonight with clouds thickening and lowering this evening, and snow set to move into northwest CT by about 9pm-10pm and then tracking northeast into SVT and SWNH by midnight, give or take.
The air is VERY dry at the moment, with the difference between air temps and dewpoint temps as much as 20º! This is also known as the “dewpoint depression” and tends to mean that when precipitation first falls into such surface air, it will dry up and evaporate, a/k/a “virga”.
This process cools and moistens the surface atmosphere at the same time, and tonight will set the stage for snow to fall at first, and the snow will stick rapidly, and snow will being accumulating almost immediately.
Driving between midnight and about 5am is not going to be fun if you must travel (hopefully you don’t have to), and treacherous travel conditions will extend well into the daylight morning hours in the western hilltowns, Berkshires, northernmost Litchfield Hills, and SVT into SWNH.
As we move past midnight, a powerful river of air about a half to full mile above our heads (a/k/a a low level jet streak) will be blasting moist, ocean air from southeast to northwest into the greater WMass region like a firehose.
This air will be forced to rise by both the colder, denser air already in place at the surface, as well as by the presence of the east-facing hills and mountains of our region.
This creates heavier precipitation and more snow during the pre-dawn hours in the eastern Berkshires, western hilltowns, southern Greens, and northern Worcester Hills up into eastern Cheshire County around Mt. Monadnock.
Conversely, on the western sides and valleys of these mountains (the Pioneer Valley as well as the Housatonic and Walloomsac River Valleys in western Berkshire and southwest Bennington Counties (and ultimately the Hudson River Valley in eastern NY) will see lighter precipitation as that formerly-rising air falls on the other side.
This creates lighter precipitation and lighter snow totals in these areas.
Even though the storm will track to our west, it will be far enough to the south of us as this river of precipitation is jettisoned into our region which will produce a front-end thump of snow across the region
AMOUNTS
As I mentioned, this heavier snow will be maximized over the eastern Berkshires, western hilltowns, and the southern Greens of VT where a major snowfall looks more likely to occur overnight into Monday morning, where 6-12″ now looks to fall (up from 5-10″), and possibly over a foot in some spots, especially in NE Berkshires, NW Franklin up into the spine of the southern Greens on east-facing slopes. I am including eastern Cheshire County NH and Mt. Monadnock in this range.
These heavier amounts are due to the continuing model signals and pattern recognition that a strong low level jet will produce such intense rising air and resultant heavy precipitation that it will dynamically cool the air from above, which will keep the milder SE air that will flip the valley to sleet and then rain at bay for longer.
However, even in these areas, some ice will mix in by mid to late morning, but snow should last longer until about 8-10am. I am not sure now if you even go to rain, might just stay as ice (sleet or freezing rain).
An “orographically-induced echo” of a more moderate snowfall should occur over the Litchfield Hills of NW.CT given that you’re further south and will mix more quickly, as well as further east where the low level jet will cause air to rise less intensely given the comparatively shorter hills there.
This includes the high terrain of central and eastern Franklin County (including Leyden, Bernardston, Northfield) into the northern Worcester hills of CMass, on up into eastern parts of Cheshire County NH with more like 4-8″ of snow there (up from 3-7″). I would also include eastern Windham VT and western Cheshire NH in this range, as you’ll be further north and stay colder for longer, though all of these areas should flip to sleet and/or rain by 7am or so.
Areas in the CT River Valley (the lower elevation towns of central/eastern Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties), down into north-central and northeast CT into southern CMass should see more of a 2-5″ snowfall (up from 1-4″), with a few sub-2″ amounts possible in the immediate Springfield Metro are south and east to Hartford and lower elevations of north-central/northeast CT, but more like the higher half of that range in the higher terrain of eastern Hampden, southwest Worcester and northeast CT.
The bottom line in these low-terrain areas is that we should flip to sleet and rain before dawn, and then any snow that has fallen will start to be washed away, with improving road conditions as the morning wears on.
Basically I raised the snow or ranges by about an inch or two, and outlined the potential for over a foot parts of far northwest MA east of North Adams and well west of Greenfield and north of Rt. 2 up into the spine of the southern Green Mountains.
Remember that the majority of our snowfall hits the ground between 11pm and 5am to 6am, except for western hilltowns, eastern Berkshires, eastern Bennington and western Windham Counties which will likely remain snow into the mid morning or so.
WIND
Southeast winds will gust 30-50mph (higher range at elevation) and some isolated outages are possible in the morning.
If you’re on the Cape and Islands or southeast MA, you’re going to see wind damage and outages with gusts 50-75mph between 7-10am down that way.
As the storm passes our latitude by noon and continues in northern NY and VT, winds will veer around from southeast to south (pushing highs into the mid 30s to low 40s for a bit) then southwest where the colder air and additional snow showers will be coming from as the upper level low sweeps northeast.
An additional 1-4″ of upslope snow over west-facing slopes will impact the Berkshires, western hilltowns, Litchfields, Taconics, and SVT overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning.
The rest of us in the valley and points east will see mixed rain and snow showers later Monday afternoon.
It’ll be cold Monday night with lows in the teens, so any standing snow or slush or ice will freeze solid so be sure to clear it if the rain hasn’t washed it away by nightfall.
Have a great night, and I will probably briefly update before I hit the hay at about 9 or 10pm and will be up around 2:30 or 3am to continue updating until the storm is through the region tomorrow.
No! Sleep! ‘Til Tuesday!
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WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE BERKSHIRES, NORTHERN LITCHFIELDS, WESTERN HILLTOWNS, SOUTHERN VT, SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHERN CMASS… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE REST OF WMASS, CMASS, AND NORTHERN CT… SNOW, ICE, RAIN AND WIND IS ON THE WAY, WITH HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10″ IN THE WARNED AREAS, AND OVER 10″ POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS IN WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY, NORTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY UP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS FOR EAST-FACING SLOPES… WRAPAROUND, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT FOR WEST-FACING SLOPES IN WMASS, E.NY, AND S.VT… 8:05am Sunday…
Good morning everybody, I hope you enjoy slop storms, because we’ve got one on the way, and instead of resisting, detesting it, hating it, worrying about it, I say we embrace it, love it, open to it, receive it and be with it.
How’s that for your morning #HippieCast? I am a hippie at heart encrusted with the suffering of life, apparently… kind of like a good grilled cheese with tomato sandwich!!
“What’s Dave talking about, is he on drugs? I think we should have someone do a wellness check on him! Maybe he needs some vitamins or a protein bar? Has he been hitting that organic cough syrup again?” (said in comedian Jim Gaffigan’s side voice).
PLEASANT JANUARY SUNDAY
We start the day very cold with temps below zero and up into the low single digits with dewpoints down near 20 below zero in some cases – an exceedingly dry and cold air mass.
It’s hard to believe we’re going to flip to ice and rain by early morning with temps reaching 35-40º by tomorrow noon, but that’s what’s happening.
Our very cold morning is due to strong high pressure working east through the region this morning. This will produce a sunny Sunday, and with our flow turning southeasterly as the high pulls east, temps will rise into the low to mid 20s.
Clouds will build late as our low pressure system now over western Georgia will track north-northeast up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains destined to past just west of us, near the Hudson River Valley of eastern NY, crossing into western VT by Monday late morning.
Lows tonight will not drop to as cold a level as originally thought due to clouds increasing and southerly flow, bottoming out into the mid teens to low 20s before slowly rising after midnight.
SNOW THUMP ARRIVES
Between 10pm and 1am, snow will arrive across the region. Southeasterly moist flow will be pushing moist air up and over our cold and dry dome at the surface, and snow should stick immediately and begin accumulating rapidly, with moderate to heavy snow at times around or just after midnight, so if you must travel, be aware of deteriorating conditions on the way.
A powerful southeasterly low level jet streak gusting 80-100mph a half mile to a mile above our heads will continue to develop and move north, eventually pushing over our region during the later pre-dawn hours into the post-dawn hours of Monday morning, increasing SE winds across our region from 20-40mph in the valleys, and 30-50mph in the higher terrain.
JUICY STORM
This storm system is already juiced up, having developed in the Deep South by drawing on Gulf of Mexico moisture. It will also draw on western Atlantic moisture, and drive that moisture northwest into the east-facing slopes of the Berkshires, northern Litchfields, western hilltowns, southern Greens of VT, and into Monadnock and northernmost Worcester County highlands.
WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN
This will cause orographic uplift, producing heavier precip over the mountains, and will correspondingly cause downsloping, which is also known as shadowing and subsidence, where air sinks and dries into valleys to the west of these mountains, leading to less/lighter precipitation.
In terms of liquid precipitation (melted snow, sleet, ice, and including rain) we should end up with half to three-quarters of an inch in the Pioneer Valley and the lower terrain in the western Berkshires and southwestern Bennington County, and up to 1.5″ or so in the high terrain.
WET SNOW/ISOLATED OUTAGES
Because we have very mild air that will be flooding the region aloft, any snow that starts off dry will become wetter with time, and cling to trees and power lines in the eastern Berkshires, western hilltowns up into SVT where the heaviest snow is expected.
This could produce some isolated power outages by morning when combined with some higher wind gusts over 40mph.
CHANGEOVER/TIMING
Snow will change to sleet and rain quickly before dawn in the Pioneer Valley from Greenfield south to Hartford and all of northern CT and the Mass Pike corridor from Westfield east to Worcester. 1-4″ of snow there, then it’s done.
In the high terrain, a change to sleet, freezing rain and rain may be a little more prolonged, but by 9am or 10am, everywhere from SVT And SWNH down through MA and CT should over to rain or maybe some pockets of freezing rain the high terrain.
SUMMARY INCLUDING AMOUNTS
–Snow starts 10pm to 1am
–Snow changes to sleet and rain in the valley before dawn
–Snow lasts a little longer in the high terrain before changing over to ice and rain everywhere
–Storms ends by noon-ish
–Southeast winds gust 20-40mph in the valleys, 30-50mph in high terrain
–1-4″ of snow/sleet in central Franklin County, central/eastern Hampshire & Hampden Counties, as well as southern CMass and most of northern CT
–3-7″ of snow/sleet in N. Litchfield County, southern Berkshires, western Berkshires, Taconics, eastern Franklin County, northern Worcester County, western Bennington County VT, eastern Windham VT and western Cheshire NH
–5-10″ of snow/sleet in the eastern Berkshires, western hilltowns (though maybe sub-5″ in western Hampden), eastern Bennington and western Windham VT, eastern Cheshire NH
–Possible over 10″ in the spine of the southern Greens of VT down into northwestern Franklin County MA along north of Rt. 2
–Wraparound snow showers as the upper low lifts northeast into western New England produces upslope (southwesterly) flow by afternoon and evening on Monday, creating light snow accumulations on west-facing slopes in the Taconics, Litchfields, Berkshires, western hills and SVT
–Southwest and west winds gust over 30mph at times with lows Monday night in the teens
TUESDAY AND BEYOND
–Cold, sunny and blustery Tuesday with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits
–Cloudier Wednesday with a Clipper system passing to our north, a few snow showers possible along/north of Rt. 2 with highs in the 30s with southwest flow
–Cold front by Wednesday night with lows in the teens, and highs Thursday and Friday in the 20s, fair
–Next storm system potential is Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning with possible coastal winter storm
Unless something drastic happens, my next update will be this evening, so stay tuned for updates, and have a great day!