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TABLE OF CONTENTS
* Daily Celestials (Sun/Moon Data)
* Sponsor Section
* Morning Discussion
* TIP: Scroll to your section, or read all
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YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
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STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:55am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 5:14pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 10 hours and 19 minutes
MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 12:54pm this afternoon
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: Northeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 5:23am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Gibbous (83.0%)
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GGBPC is a Northampton-based law firm and is the area’s premier estate and tax planning provider. The firm specializes in Estate Planning, Elder Law, and Tax Law, so be sure to contact GGBPC today to see how they can help you.
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YOUR MORNING DISCUSSION
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Good morning folks, Winter Storm Warnings have been hoisted by the NWS for moderate to heavy snowfall tonight, bringing a plowable snowfall to the region, deepening our snowpack, and making winter feel like winter again, especially after the past 4-5 years.
I’m going to go into the geeky weather weeds below to explain some pros and cons to this storm performing as currently expected, so if you just want the quick synopsis, here it is: highs reach the upper 20s to mid 30s today with partial sunshine and a few Berkshire flurries prior to clouds increasing late today. Snow moves in between 7:30-9:30pm tonight from west to east, and will fall moderate to heavy, tapering off by early Sunday morning with a few scattered snow showers remaining. Lows will dip to the upper teens to low 20s.
We should see 4-8” across the greater WMass region, with up to 10” possible. There is a lower chance that mid level dry air could introduce snowflake types and/or ice or freezing drizzle and cut down accumulations and bust the above forecast, and if you want more details, please read my discussion below.
BUST POTENTIAL
I do have to say at the outset that I’m slightly skeptical around a couple of potential flies in the ointment that could keep snowfall amounts down to the lower end of my still-expected 4-8” range (with some spots up to 10” or so).
First, there is overall weakness exhibited with this storm system. It’s a wave with some moisture, but there’s not serious cyclogenesis (i.e. a storm deepening and developing), and secondly there are signals that drier air may try to work into the middle levels of the atmosphere, pushing into the back edge / western part of the storm.
DIFFERENT SNOWFLAKE TYPES ACCUMULATE DIFFERENTLY
It’s the second piece that could essentially dry out the region in the cloud that makes the big fluffy dendrite-type snowflakes that really stack up in a matrix and accumulate well.
If that dry air does come to pass, it could produce snowflakes called columns and plates and they are FLATTER in their structure, and you correspondingly need a LOT more precipitation to fall to produce 1” of plates, columns or needles than you do to produce 1” of dendrites.
What also happens, as we saw the other day, is when dry air intrudes at the mid-levels, you can get sleet or freezing rain/drizzle formation.
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THINGS GOING FOR OUR STORM
With those caveats out of the way, I do think that as long as our storm tracks more or less straight west to east off of the southern Jersey shore and heads of the The Benchmark 75 miles south of Nantucket, that should keep any mixing potential south of us, though as of this morning regardless of the dry air intrusion piece, some ice could mix in to areas of northern CT.
It does look like we’ll get some strong banding of snow in that 9pm-3am timeframe when the brunt of the storm moves through the region, and with air plenty cold to support snow at all levels during that time, we should see fluffier snow during the brunt of the storm, and we could see 1” per snow rates, along with a fluffier snow that stacks better.
All in all, no storm is ever “easy”, but I think 4-8” with up to 10” in spots is what I have been saying for days and will stick with given the countervailing factors involved, and I will certainly be updating by this evening before the storm sets in.
For Sunday, we’ll see scattered snow showers by mid to late morning, and some upslope or lake effect may bring a few more new coatings in the Berkshires, hilltowns, Litchfields and SVT with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and lows crashing into the single digits.
For now, our Tuesday system likely stays south of us, but it could bring some light snow to areas south of the Pike, and I will update you if that starts to come north.
Generally, Monday through Wednesday look like fair and seasonably cold weather, with our next bigger winter storm chance now slated for Thursday which may involve snow, ice and rain. There is also the chance for another weekend snowstorm, so the Weather Nut Department continues to busy!
Have a great day and if you’d like to support my work and help keep me in your service, just click the secure link below for available options and thank you.
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