Northwest winds gust 30-50mph today.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS:
–Weekly Nutshell (Quick impact list)
–Sponsor Note (Tandem Bagel Co.)
–NWS Alerts (Advisories, Warnings, Watches)
–Celestial Data (Sun/Moon info)
–Regional Summaries (quick in and out details)
–Morning Discussion (Longer-form explanation)
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DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL
–Very icy this morning, watch for slick spots after last night’s freezing rain and sleet
–Partly sunny on average today, as Arctic cold front swings through the region
–A few snow showers are possible with the frontal passage, especially west of the CT River
–Northwest winds will gust 30-50mph, and some outages are possible as ice-encased trees are downed (western hills / eastern Berkshires highest chance)
–Wind slacken a bit tonight, but still gust to 20mph at times, with lows in the single digits to low teens
–Wind chills will be in the single digits to low as 15 below zero!
–Saturday is cold, highs upper teens to mid 20s, mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers in the afternoon, coatings possible
–Milder Sunday, highs in the 30s, scattered snow showers again but likely in northern MA, SVT and SWNH, rain/snow mix in the valley
–Monday is sunny and seasonably cold, clouding up late
–A substantial snowstorm continues to be signaled for Monday night through Tuesday night with a complex storm system, and the potential for more snow next Thursday and another storm on Saturday will keep me very busy, but before we jump into the weather discussion/details below, let’s check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with their newest location in West Springfield, MA.
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company… No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.
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***DHTWN DAILY WEATHER REPORT***
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALERTS
–Wind Advisories are up for WMass, CMass and northern CT
DHTWN REMINDER
–It doesn’t take much to do a nice thing for somebody that you don’t know.
DAILY CELESTIAL (STAR):
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:33am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 5:34pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 11 hours and 1 minute
NIGHTLY CELESTIAL (MOON):
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 11:01pm tonight
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 9:18am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (22.3%)
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DAILY TERRESTRIAL
ZONE 1 – Northern Region
(Southern VT, Southwest NH)
–High Temps: CURRENT, as temps drop from this morning
–Low Temps: Single digits below zero
–Winds: Northwest gust 25-40mph, slacken tonight
–Sky Cover: Partly sunny, periods of clouds
–Precipitation: Morning scattered snow showers, then drying
ZONE 2 – Central Region
(Western MA, North-Central MA, Northern Litchfield CT)
–High Temps: CURRENT, as temps drop from this morning
–Low Temps: Single digits above zero
–Winds: Northwest gust 30-50mph, slacken tonight
–Sky Cover: Partly sunny, periods of clouds
–Precipitation: Morning scattered snow showers, then drying
ZONE 3 – Southern Region
(South-Central MA, Northern CT)
–High Temps: CURRENT, as temps drop from this morning
–Low Temps: Single digits above to low teens
–Winds: Northwest gust 30-50mph, slacken tonight
–Sky Cover: Partly sunny, periods of clouds
–Precipitation: Morning scattered snow showers, then drying
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MORNING DISCUSSION
Good morning everybody, it is VERY icy out there, so take it slow on your walking or driving surfaces, and especially on the roads until you’re assured it’s well treated, don’t just assume it is. You know what they say about assumptions!
Luckily temps came up in the pre-dawn hours behind that final batch of freezing rain which brought a fairly soft thunderstorm through Hampshire County that produced like 4 feathered claps, at least to my ears.
That’s behind us now, and what’s in front of us is a windy and blustery day with dropping temperatures from our current morning highs.
Temps will drop into the 20s afternoon and down into the teens by evening, and landing in the single digits above and below zero overnight.
Northwest winds will gust 30-50mph across the region, with those high gusts realized in the Berkshires and western hilltowns, where ice-encased trees and lines may come down and produce some isolated outages, so be on the lookout hardy hilltowners!
It’ll be a mixed sun and cloud day, and tonight our wind should slacken down to 10-20mph gusts under partly cloudy skies, with wind chills between 5 above and -15 below zero! Cold!
For the weekend, a couple of weaker disturbances will move through New England, bringing scattered snow showers in the afternoon on Saturday with highs in the upper teens to mid 20s, with some coatings possible. Lows will be in the teens.
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On Sunday, we’re milder with highs in the mid to upper 30s, and an Alberta Clipper will be diving southeast through northern New England with the potential for more snow showers mainly along and north of the Rt. 2 corridor in SVT and SWNH, and especially in northern CMass into southern NH, with some rain/snow mix or just rain showers in the valley with weaker activity the further south you go. Lows will be in the 20s.
On Monday, it’s the calm before the storm as brief high pressure nudges through and gives us a mostly sunny day with highs in the low to mid 30s.
However, clouds will build in late, and then we’ll be watching a potent low pressure system that pushes northeast into the eastern Great Lakes, then spawning a secondary low off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline with a trough connecting the two.
This is not a lock at all, as we “need” the parent low to weaken faster and the secondary coastal storm to strengthen faster, but it’s not clear that will happen with strong dynamics with the parent storm still be being signaled.
This makes me think a rain/snow line could set up somewhere near the MA/CT state line. In addition, setups like this rarely produce consistent, expected precipitation shields, so there’s lots to figure out between now and then.
Regardless, this could be a plowable, substantial snowstorm in the greater WMass region Monday night into Tuesday night, with some folks hitting double-digit totals.
Not only that, but another winter storm is possible next Thursday, and then a THIRD coastal storm possible for next weekend, so folks, I would ask that you stay tuned over the coming 7-10 days as busy times appear to be ahead in the weather department!
Have a great day, be careful with icy surfaces this morning, and if you appreciate and value my work, please consider supporting it via my 2023 Member/Support Drive… any monthly or one-time amount is helpful, thank you:
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AND REMEMBER…
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut