TABLE OF CONTENTS
* Daily Celestials (Sun/Moon Data)
* Weekly Weather Nutshell
* Morning Discussion
* TIP: Scroll below for sections, or read all
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
STAR:
–OUR STAR WILL RISE AT: 6:52am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 5:17pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 10 hours and 25 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 7:38pm this evening
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 8:30am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (3.8%)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<<
Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons, and Gerard, Ghazey & Bates, P.C. GGBPC is a Northampton-based law firm regarded as the voice of pragmatic and well-reasoned estate planning, elder law and tax guidance in Western Massachusetts. The firm specializes in estate planning law, and expertly handles other matters such as Elder Law, Tax Law, as well as Real Estate purchase, sales, and refinance transactions. Contact GGBPC today to see how they can help! Click: https://www.ggbpc.com/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
YOUR WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
–36 hours of peaceful, above-seasonable conditions ahead
–Both days see highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s
–Both nights dip into the mid 20s or so for lows
–Partly sunny today, mostly sunny tomorrow, and peaceful with light wind as high pressure builds through the region
–Clouds increase late Monday and Monday night
–Snow arrives after midnight, may be a mix briefly at first, but should be snowing everywhere by sunrise with light accumulations underway
–Highs Tuesday in the upper 20s to mid 30s with snow, heavy at times, snow rates of 1-2″ per hour expected
–Travel will become hazardous as our storm tracks ENE off of the southern NJ coastline and deepens rapidly, passing south of Nantucket by afternoon/evening
–Tuesday morning commute negatively impacted, and evening commute could be problematic as well especially east of the I-91 corridor
–A widespread 6-12″ of snow is likely at this point, with 4-8″ in northern parts of SVT and SWNH further away from the storm
–Northeast wind gusts of 20-35mph expected with our mid-February nor’easter
–Snow winds down Tuesday evening, lows in the mid to upper teens
–Wednesday and Thursday looks wintry, blustery and cold with highs in the mid to upper 20s Wed, and upper 20s to mid 30s on Thurs, with lows in the teens both nights
–Northwest winds behind the storm may gust 25-40mph at times, driving wind chills below zero at night
–By Thursday night into Friday an Alberta Clipper system may bring additional light snow to the region, with more snow showers possible Saturday, and another winter storm by the following Tuesday
–Winter is biting back, so stay tuned for updates through the back half of Feb!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
YOUR MORNING DISCUSSION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Good morning everybody, Winter Storm Watches have expanded into the western hilltowns, northern Berkshires, SVT and SWNH, and continue for the rest of the greater WMass region.

The only saving grace for this storm for folks who don’t like winter weather, is that it is a progressive system that will have a more zonal track (i.e. west to east) vs. meridional (i.e. south to north), and without anything east of it to slow it down or stall it (including no massive upper trough “capturing” it and closing it off at all levels) it will keep on trucking right out to sea just south of the Cape and Islands.

Regardless, this will be a juicy southern stream system that will deliver either side of an inch of liquid precipitation to our region that will fall in the form of moderate to heavy snow and is expected to negatively impact the Tuesday morning commute and travel all day on Tuesday into the early evening before tapering off.

And trust me when I say, whatever snow falls is sticking around for a while and looks to be added to into next week with a couple of more snowfall potentials.

STORM SETUP
Our storm system in question is still over the southwest U.S. and will sweep through Texas and into the Tennessee Valley by tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Meanwhile weak but cold-enough high pressure will move into southeast Canada, and will provide plenty of cold aloft and enough cold at the surface to allow snow to fall on Tuesday as our storm redevelops off of the Mid-Atlantic coast and tracks east-northeast toward The Benchmark south of Nantucket.

Our storm will be deepening rapidly, which will help produce northwest-pivoting heavier snow bands possibly producing 1-2″ per hour snowfall rates, along with gusty northeast winds, as our nor’easter tracks south of southern New England, keeping us on its cold and snowy side.

The storm’s associated upper level trough will be just west of it and tilting negatively as it reaches our regioin, so that should help draw heavier snow into the region.

Finally, the storm’s 700mb low (i.e. the low pressure center at 2 miles aloft) will pass along the south coast, and just north and west of that is where the heaviest snow tends to fall in nor’easters (low pressure systems are VERTICAL and at various heights are offset from where the surface low center is, which is the one that gets talked about usually).

Unless something drastic happens, there is likely not going to be a snow/rain line with which to contend, though we do have to watch northern CT if the storm track bobs further north than expected as we close in on Tuesday, and I will keep you updated.

TIMING
Snow could start off as a brief mix just after midnight, but quickly turn to all snow with quite cold temps just aloft, and it should be accumulating everywhere by 6am.

Snow falls moderately to heavily during the day, with the brunt in the later morning to early/mid afternoon before tapering off in the evening.

AMOUNTS
Given the current storm track expectation, amounts should be a widespread 6-12″ across the region, with some areas seeing up to 14″ of snow, and more of a 4-8″ snow range in northern parts of SVT and SWNH.

If the storm track shifts, these amounts could shift, but this is how I believe it will play out as of this writing.

WIND
This storm will be deepening pretty rapidly as it tracks from the DelMarVa Peninsula to south of Nantucket, and will already be pretty potent when it hits the coast, so I do expect northeast wind gusts of 20-35mph at times on Tuesday.

OUTAGES
Some isolated outages are possible, and right now I would put that area parts of central MA and far northeast CT where snow may be wetter than areas west and north of there.

BUST POTENTIAL
Some guidance continues to show a more southerly track for this storm, but said guidance is trending north now. Still, we can’t rule out a more widespread moderate snowfall with lowered amounts if the storm tracks more south of us, but I don’t think that will happen at this time.

WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES
After Tuesday’s storm, fair weather develops with strong northwesterly flow will sweep in behind our departing system, and set up blustery northwesterlies gusting 25-40mph at times Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 20s on Wednesday and upper 20s to low/mid 30s on Thursday, with lows in the teens, and wind chills possibly near or below zero at night.

Not only that, but we could see an Alberta Clipper bring more light snow by Friday or Saturday, and then another winter storm signal exists for next Tuesday as cold temps remain in place.

All this to say, winter is biting back as the later February into March timeframe has been when many seasonal forecasters have felt the main winter pattern could setup.

That remains to be seen, but it sure is looking like it as of today. Have a great day, and stay tuned for an afternoon update today, and updates throughout Monday and Tuesday!

>>> BE KIND <<<
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut