>>> YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS <<<
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 7:06am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 4:18pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 9 hours and 12 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 2:00pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Southwest
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 4:37am tonight
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Southeast
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (13.1%)
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>>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<<
–Mostly cloudy today with a warm front approaching
–Best chance for sunny breaks today is south of the Pike
–Highs will range from 45-50º for most of us this Saturday
–A few sprinkles are possible, but most of us stay dry
–Lows tonight will drop into the 35-40º range with some patchy fog possible as dewpoints increase
–For Sunday morning, any patchy fog burns off and temps soar into the mid to upper 50s for a day ahead of a potent cold front that will be slicing eastward into the northeast U.S.
–First scattered showers likely arrive before noon, say mid to late morning, but main area of heavier rain moves in later afternoon and evening
–Southerly winds will kick up and gust 25-45mph in the afternoon and overnight, with some 50mph gusts possible in the high terrain
–Rain falls heavy at times Sunday night, and starts changing to snow in SVT and far northwest MA in the pre-dawn hours toward dawn
–Through the dawn, we can’t rule out thunder, isolated outages due to wind, and street or river flooding
–Anywhere from 1″-3″ rain is possible, with many in the 2-3″ range, and we can’t rule out some over-3″ amounts
–In addition, if the change to snow happens soon enough, anywhere from 2-6″ of wet snow is possible in the higher elevations of the northern Berkshires, western Franklin County and southern VT, with a coating to 2″ in those sub-regions’ lower elevations
–The storm clears out by noon, with cold westerlies gusting up to 30mph at times, with temps falling around 40º back to the mid 20s
–Scattered snow showers are possible in the afternoon, and it will remain breezy Monday night
–Some lake effect snow showers are possible Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday
–Otherwise we’re cooler, more seasonable with highs 30s to low 40s, and dry Tuesday through Friday with more sunshine, but before we get into the details let’s check a note from our local weekend sponsor, #GerardGhazeyBatesPC, an estate planning law firm in Northampton, MA.
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>>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<<
Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Gerard, Ghazey & Bates, P.C. GGBPC is a Northampton-based law firm regarded as the voice of pragmatic and well-reasoned estate planning, elder law and tax guidance in Western Massachusetts. The firm specializes in estate planning law, and expertly handles other matters such as Elder Law, Tax Law, as well as Real Estate purchase, sales, and refinance transactions. Contact GGBPC today to see how they can help! 

>>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<<
Good morning everybody, not much has changed since yesterday regarding our incoming storm system for Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

Today is mostly dry with a warm front approaching the region from our southwest. Highs will reach the mid to upper 40s for most of us, and it will be mostly cloudy with best chance for sunny breaks the further south you go into southern MA and especially northern CT. Lows will drop to the 35-40º range. A sprinkle is possible today/tonight, but would be isolated.

In the bigger meteorological picture, we have our upper level trough swinging southeast into the western Ohio Valley this morning and as it becomes neutrally oriented to slightly negatively oriented (and I’m not referring to its emotional disposition!).

This will continue into tomorrow, and will help spawn a secondary surface low near the northern Mid-Atlantic region which will track northeast somewhere over the eastern CT to Rhode Island area of southern New England into Monday morning, which will help pull a cold front through our region by that time.

As we kick off Sunday, it will be cloudy and quite mild. Highs are expected to rise into the 55-60º range for a day as strong southerly flow siphoned up the eastern seaboard by our incoming upper level low.

As that system presses east, showers will develop in parts of the WMass region by the late morning, and increase in coverage and intensity into the afternoon, and especially after sunset, when the heaviest rain will fall.

Southerly gusts likely won’t hit that 35-55mph range I’ve been mentioning due to even milder air just aloft preventing the strongest gusts from mixing down, but 25-45mph gusts still seem likely, and some gusts over 45mph are possible in the high terrain.

After midnight, we should see some downpours and some of us could hear some thunder rolling through the region, too.

The heavy rainfall into very early Monday morning could produce street flooding, and even some small stream/river flooding, especially in SVT and northern MA due to a combination of snow melt, runoff, and heavy rain, so we could see some Flood Warnings issued.

HEAVY WET SNOW
Around the early pre-dawn hours time the cold front will be either east of or approaching the MA-VT/NY state line.

This will drop temperatures behind it, and start turning heavy rain to heavy wet snow, which would occur first in southern VT and the northern Berkshires into far western Franklin County.

SNOW BUST POTENTIAL
It is possible that the precip shield will dry slot, and more or less cut off before the coldest air gets here to turn it to accumulating wet snow.

However, I am still concerned for a period of heavy wet snow starting before dawn and ending before noon on Monday with up to 2-6″ of wet snow possible in southern VT and the northern Berkshires into far western Franklin County.

In addition to southerly wind gusts Sunday night, this snow could also cause some isolated power outages into Monday morning, as westerly winds will be kicking up behind the front and gusting up to 30mph at times and blowing into some areas where up to 4-6″ of wet snow is loaded on trees and lines.

By afternoon, the storm is racing away and we’re left with cooling temps into the 30s, westerly wind gusts of 20-30mph, and a few scattered afternoon snow showers, that may last into the evening with lows in the 20s.

Tuesday through Friday will be mostly non-impactful with a few mid-week snow showers possible, otherwise it will be sunnier, calmer, and cooler with highs in the 30s to low 40s for highs into Thursday, and highs in the low to mid 40s by next Friday.

Have a great day and stay tuned for updates on our incoming multi-hazard storm!

>>> BE KIND <<<
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut