>>> YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS <<<
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 7:07am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 4:18pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 9 hours and 11 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 2:26pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Southwest
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 5:49am tonight
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Southeast
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (6.9%)
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>>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<<
–Patchy dense fog this morning, burns off by late morning
–Scattered showers arrive late morning into early afternoon or so
–Southerly breezes kick up, highs make it into the upper 40s to 50s
–Temperature inversion (warmer aloft, cooler on the ground) keeps winds lighter in the Pioneer Valley compared to hills and points east
–As such winds gust 15-35mph valley, 30-50mph high terrain and in northeast CT and CMass
–As upper low swings closer tonight, air diverges aloft, causes upward vacuum, and rapidly rising air condenses into heavy rain at times
–Thunderstorms possible, with downpours, street and river flooding expected in a few spots, highest chance east of I-91
–Anywhere from 2-5″ of rain expected
–Cold front swings into the Berkshires and southwest VT before midnight, and slows down as it tracks east
–Rain changes to sleet and heavy wet snow toward dawn in Taconics, Berkshires southern Greens
–2-6″ snow in many of these areas, though SVT may see up to 5-10″, with Coating to 3″ in southern Berkshires western hilltowns (though far western Franklin Cty is in 2-6″ range)
–Precipitation will end before colder air makes it into the Pioneer Valley to produce any snow accumulations, most likely
–Rain and snow shut down by mid day Monday for most of us, but upslope snow showers may continue in the Berkshires and SVT with additional light accumulations possible
–The rest of the week is chilly and fair, and we’ll get to that by tomorrow sometime, so before we get into the storm details let’s check a note from our local weekend sponsor, #GerardGhazeyBatesPC, an estate planning law firm in Northampton, MA.
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>>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<<
Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Gerard, Ghazey & Bates, P.C. GGBPC is a Northampton-based law firm regarded as the voice of pragmatic and well-reasoned estate planning, elder law and tax guidance in Western Massachusetts. The firm specializes in estate planning law, and expertly handles other matters such as Elder Law, Tax Law, as well as Real Estate purchase, sales, and refinance transactions. Contact GGBPC today to see how they can help! 

>>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<<
Good morning everybody, we’ve got a big storm on the way, there is no doubt about it, and it will bring multiple hazards such as strong gusty winds, heavy rain, thunderstorms, street and/or river flooding potential, isolated power outages, heavy wet snow, slippery high terrain Monday morning travel, and mild temps in the 50s today, so let’s jump in.

STORM SETUP
Sandwiched between high pressure over the central U.S. and high pressure over the western Atlantic, a positively tilted trough is cyclonically tracking east and as it does so its axis is changing from north-northeast to south-southwest (positive tilt) to north to south (a neutral tilt).

This more neutral tilt as it approaches our region is what is causing the secondary low that will form near the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight to track more easterly than earlier guidance from several days ago.

This is also what is pushing the strongest wind gusts more east into eastern WMass, eastern CT and CMass, along with pulling the colder air in sooner, and causing a likely increase in heavy wet snow production and accumulations in the central to northern Berkshires and Taconics, far western Hampshire and Franklin Counties, and much of Bennington County VT into far western Windham County VT.

RAIN AND WIND: JUICY, DYNAMIC SYSTEM
Our storm system is directly tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and will then tap western Atlantic moisture as it swings to the eastern seaboard and develops the secondary low center which will track northeast into somewhere between far eastern CT and the Cape Cod Canal, with a likely track over Rhode Island.

If you’ll remember, this secondary was going to originally track over WMass, so that’s why it’s important to keep checking in with forecast changes, rarely is much set in stone re: the weather before it transpires in New England!

TIMING OF WEATHER IMPACTS
–Patchy dense fog will hang around until mid to late morning
–First showers arrive around late morning to early-mid afternoon
–Heavier and steadier rain moves in after sunset into this evening
–Southerly wind gusts pick up in these heavier rain periods, and especially increases east of the I-91 corridor between 8pm-Midnight into the pre-dawn hours
–Thunder is possible this evening
–Areas of street and/or river flooding is possible if the max rainfall amounts come to pass, which while I think we’ll see 1.5-4″ of rain, some areas may see isolated areas of 4-6″
–Cold front arrives between 9pm-midnight southwest VT and Berkshire County and far northwest CT
–This may slow down as the secondary low develops, so this is a *total wild card* in terms of how snow develops in northwest MA and southern VT
–Assuming the front continues to move east, rain starts to changing to heavy wet snow and sleet around and after midnight in Bennington County, the Taconics, and the northern Berkshires
–Snow falls heavily at times towards dawn in these areas, and rain should mix with and change to snow for a briefer period Monday morning in all western hilltowns above 1000 feet, the central and southern Berkshires, and western Windham County VT
–As westerlies gust to 30mph or so Monday morning into the afternoon, the storm departs before noon but upslope snow showers may continue in these areas with additional light fluffier accumulations

SNOW AMOUNTS
Bennington County, western Windham County VT, the central Berkshires (Pittsfield east to Windsor) on north through north county, and into far western Franklin County should see 2-6″ of heavy wet snow, with some higher elevations in these zones getting more like 4-10″ depending on elevation.

The southern Berkshires, far northern Litchfield County, the rest of the western hilltowns, and maybe a few high terrain spots in southwest NH should see a slushy coating to 2 or 3″ of wet snow, with just rain elsewhere in the WMass, CMass, and northern CT regions.

POWER OUTAGES
There will be two outage areas, I believe, one due to strong southerly winds gusts of 30-50mph that precede the cold frontal passage tonight, that being far eastern parts of WMass (especially eastern Hampshire/Hampden counties), northeast CT and CMass, and a second area of outages due to snow loading in the northern Berkshires, western Franklin County and especially the southern Green Mountains of VT and Taconics of eastern NY.

In snow zones, where 4-6″+ of wet snow falls and conincides with cooler westerlies gusting tomorrow morning, outages are possible due to snow loading of trees and lines.

The rest of the week is looking cooler and drier, and we’ll get to that later, but right now, I’m focusing on this multi-hazard storm system, and I will update by this evening as our storm really sets in with an update.

Have a great day!

>>> BE KIND <<<
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut