>>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<< --Mostly cloudy, some sunny breaks today with scattered showers or a storm through mid afternoon or so --Then a line of clustered showers, downpours and thunderstorms moves through 5-10pm --Some storms may produce isolated flash flooding, larger hail, and isolated damaging wind gusts --Activity wind down by midnight or so, then we start to clear and dry things out, patchy fog possible --A lovely weekend is head with partly to mostly sunny skies and lower humidity compared to today --Highs upper 70s to low/mid 80s each day, lows 50s to low 60s --Monday looks partly sunny with increasing humidity later in the day as another front approaches --Monday night and especially Tuesday into the evening features scattered showers and thunderstorms --Wednesday and Thursday look like another pair of warm fair weather days with lower humidity, followed by more showers and thunderstorms with a big increase in humidity, but before we talk details let's check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with their newest location in the Stop & Shop Plaza on King Street in Northampton, MA. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<< Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company... No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.

>>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<< Good morning everybody, before we get going, raise your eyebrows without smiling. Now lower them into a furrow for 5 seconds, then raise them again for 5 seconds. You might add a slight smile while raised. Face yoga can be helpful for changing attitudes about life's problems that are you in your control to change of influence, of that I'm a firm believer. As for our weather, *I'm* trying to keep my eyebrows raised today, because as much as I love the weather, I am tired of severe summer weather, and we may get some more of that today, especially if you live in the Berkshires, western hilltowns, western and central Hampshire and Franklin Counties, up into southern VT and southwest NH. Southeast and east of those areas, the threat lessens as late-day showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will weaken as they move east towards EMass. To back it up, we've already seen some showers and thunderstorms this morning with an old Mesoscale Convective Complex that pushed through northern MA, SVT and SWNH earlier this morning, with some lingering showers still about after sunrise, especially east of I-91. The only exception is a fairly strong thunderstorm that will impact Manchester, VT and other northern areas of the two southern VT counties (Bennington and Windham) shortly (post time just after 7am). It is these areas into southwest NH that got around a half inch of rain this morning already that have best chance for flash flooding later today, which is why a Flood Watch has been hoisted for SVT and SWNH. Otherwise, we can expect periods of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms later this morning into mid afternoon with dry periods mixed in as well. Highs will hang in the 70s due to mostly cloudy skies, with a few sunny breaks possible. By 5-10pm, the main line ahead of an incoming cold front brings clusters of showers, downpours and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms. We won't have much surface heating, so why the chance for severe weather? That's because the mid/upper atmosphere is very cold, so instead of low level lapse rates being steep, we'll take advantage of the lift from the cold front, strong mid-level lapse rates, decent enough wind shear and plenty of moisture to produce storms that could produce some larger hail given colder cloud tops, as well as some damaging wind gusts or flash flooding areas due to heavy rainfall with still-moist ground conditions. Everything winds down late tonight, and lows will bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s with patchy fog late. With high pressure moving in behind the front, we clear things up tomorrow morning, and will enjoy a lovely weekend ahead with highs in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s under mostly sunny skies, and lows in the 50s to low 60s. We'll even see lower humidity, to which I say hooray! Monday looks like our transition day with some more clouds building in later in the day, but overall it looks like a dry, partly sunny day with highs in the low to mid 80s with a few showers possible at night. On Tuesday a cold front approaches and brings another round of showers and thunderstorms with more humid air advecting back into the region. Highs should remain in the low 80s, and some storms may be strong. Then we get another pair of winners Wednesday and Thursday with warm temps and partly to mostly sunny skies with reduced humidity, as this new pattern settles in for now. By Friday, another front will be approaching, and humidity will once again be pulled north into our region ahead of that front, which will again produce more showers and thunderstorms. Please stay tuned for updates later today and this evening as I monitor our latest severe weather threat, as I plan to post again by about 2pm and then again around 5pm as our front starts to impact the region. Have a great day! >>> BE KIND <<< “Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you've got to be kind.” --Kurt Vonnegut