>>> YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS <<< STAR: --OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:54am this morning --OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 7:55pm this evening --TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 1 minute MOON: --OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 6:12pm this afternoon --MOON SET DIRECTION: Northwest --OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 6:46am tomorrow morning --MOON RISE DIRECTION: Northeast --MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (13.4%) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<< --A lovely first half of our Saturday with sunshine early, and then partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies developing toward and through afternoon --A warm front approaches from the west tonight along with a mid-level wave, isolated showers are possible anytime after 4pm or so --Highs will reach the mid 70s to low/mid 80s hills to valley --Humidity will increase later today and tonight --Showers and thunderstorms, in scattered fashion, will move in after 6pm, and possibly hold off until after 9pm when best parameters line up --This is after peak heating, so hopefully this means showers and storms, while heavy rain producers for some, may have "the wind blown out of them", with only small hail potential --Still, we cannot rule out a severe storm or two capable of isolated damaging wind gusts or larger hail --I think any tornadic threat remains west of our region, though far western CT or far SW Berkshires and adjacent Taconics have a VERY LOW chance --Activity moves through overnight, with lows in the low to mid 60s --Any morning clouds or a few showers east of the I-91 corridor wane, and sunshine develops by noon tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with drying westerly flow --Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 50s under partly cloudy skies, followed by a mostly sunny Monday with highs mid 70s to low 80s --Humidity increases again Monday night with a few showers, then Tuesday is the next day to watch for wet weather including severe storm potential, very humid --Fair weather resumes Wednesday and Thursday, and we'll have to see if Friday produces another stormy frontal passage, but before we get into this afternoon's severe weather details let's check a note from our local weekend sponsor, #GerardGhazeyBatesPC, an estate planning law firm in Northampton, MA. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<< Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Gerard, Ghazey & Bates, P.C. GGBPC is a Northampton-based law firm regarded as the voice of pragmatic and well-reasoned estate planning, elder law and tax guidance in Western Massachusetts. The firm specializes in estate planning law, and expertly handles other matters such as Elder Law, Tax Law, as well as Real Estate purchase, sales, and refinance transactions. Click here to Contact GGBPC today to see how they can help!

>>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<< Good morning everybody, the severe weather threat for this afternoon and tonight looks reduced, even though the SPC still has most of us in a Level 2 out of 5 severe thunderstorm risk. I need to start out of the gate by saying I have a long-planned rock show I'm playing tonight with my very old and dear friends in the band Colorway - it's our reunion show at Luthier's Coop in Easthampton from 9:30pm-11:00pm (come out!), so regardless of what the weather is doing at that time, I won't be available, but will endeavor to update before dinner time around 5pm, and then a brief update again before I go on stage. Thankfully overall (and thankfully for me personally) it looks like the severe weather threat is tamped down due to a later arrival of the best parameters (strongest low level winds, position of warm front, etc.) which means the atmosphere can't "take advantage" of the peak surface heating of the day to produce more widespread severe weather. It's not a cold front coming through, it's a warm front, and the latter usually doesn't provide the kind of intense forced lifting you need (generally, speaking) to overcome the waning instability that will be developing in our region after sunset. Still, this is not to say we can't see an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm tonight with localized wind damage or larger hail, or even localized flash flooding, but it seems to me less of a threat for those results based on what I'm seeing this morning. I think if anyone were to receive such conditions, it would be areas south of the Pike in far southwest MA and especially more so in far western CT in Litchfield and Fairfield Counties and adjacent southeast NY, with the very low potential for a tornado down in those areas, though that's even a stretch. Isolated shower/storm activity is possible between 4-9pm, with most of the scattered showers and storms moving through between 9pm-2am tonight. We're sunny and drier this morning, and then muggier and cloudier this afternoon with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, wiht lows in the 60s tonight. Sunday morning features some clouds and possibly a shower or two east of the I-91 corridor in WMass/CMass/NE.CT, but then sunshine will be developing, earlier in the west, later to the east, with similar highs to today, and lows 55-60º. Monday looks lovely with high pressure building into the region and again highs mid 70s to low 80s with lower humidity, but clouds are likely to build into our region by night time with a few showers possible as a warm front tries to make another run at us into Tuesday. How far north that gets remains to be seen, and will play a big role into whether we get either just periods of scattered showers on Tuesday, or a larger rain threat with potential for flash flooding and strong to severe thunderstorms. After that system moves through, we've got clearing and sunny conditions expected for at least Wednesday and Thursday. Another frontal boundary may move through on Friday with more showers/storms but it's way far off at this point, but here's hoping we can make that potential vanish and get a REAL fair weather stretch so we can string several days of nice weather together - we surely deserve it after this summer! Have a great day! >>> BE KIND <<< “Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you've got to be kind.” --Kurt Vonnegut