Good morning everybody, Tropical Storm Fay has increased in strength slightly with sustained winds to 50mph with higher gusts.
However, this remains a poorly organized tropical system. It will not produce widespread damaging effects, but there is the risk of isolated wind damage overnight and flash flooding in the form of street flooding and/or small stream flooding.
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
There are two ways we could see isolated wind damage from this even, and that is A) southeasterly wind gusts in the high terrain reaching speeds briefly over 40mph, and B) from the low chance of a quick spin-up/tornado which would track south-southeast to north-northwest. The best chance of seeing a tornado in this low risk event is over north-central and northwest CT into western Hampden County, the southern Berkshires and southern Taconics of eastern NY.
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL
I do believe the risk for this remains quite low over much of the WMass region, though with any torrential and tropical downpours, even if they are isolated, they can cause problems in very isolated areas.
In other words, that risk is there for anywhere in WMass, northern CT and eastern NY.
However, the higher risk would be west of the I-91 corridor, mainly from the east-facing slopes of the Berkshires and Litchfields and points west into eastern NY and the Hudson River Valley region, including the Catskills who will get hit hardest by flooding rains from this system.
In fact, if you know anyone out in the Catskills, those folks will get hammered with torrential rain of 4-8″, not going to be pretty out there.
For us in the WMass region, expect generally half an inch to an inch of rain through Saturday noon, with 1-3″ possible west of the I-91 corridor in CT, MA and VT (especially southern halves of Bennington and Windham Counties) with isolated 3″+ amounts.
TIMING
Scattered showers, downpours and thunderstorms (which may be WIDELY scattered at first, especially east of the I-91 corridor) will arrive in northern CT by early to mid afternoon, and then in WMass/CMass and points north and west by mid to late afternoon.
Some showers will be light, others will be torrential, as a tropical air mass begins to invade the region overnight. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible.
Showers and rain will be most numerous and with highest coverage tonight and into early tomorrow morning before waning by late morning.
WINDS
The peak of the shower and storm activity occurs overnight, which is when the highest wind gusts will move through. However, by “highest” I mean 20-40mph out of the southeast. As Matt Noyes from NBC Boston points out, we don’t get a lot of strong southeasterly winds in our region, which means that trees have not had to historically brace against that wind direction, so a few outages could result even from a 40mph gusts in the high terrain on the east-facing slopes of the Berkshires, Litchfields and Taconics tonight.
Again, a very low risk of a weak/brief tornado exists east of landfalling tropical systems in New England, so I will be watching radar tonight for as long as I can keep my eyes open and will update here if I see anything twisty.
TEMPS AND HUMDIDITY (#MASHReference)
–It will be quite muggy throughout this period into Tuesday, then we get a brief break
–Dewpoints will peak in the low to mid 70s for Saturday, which will help fuel some strong to severe thunderstorms after Fay’s departure
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–High temps in the low to mid 80s today
–Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s tonight
–Highs in the mid 80s tomorrow
–Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow tonight
–Highs in the mid to upper 80s Sunday
–Highs in the low to mid 80s Monday and Tuesday (and beyond)
AFTERNOON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
After Fay passes to our north, a lobe of energy will be swinging from west to east, and moving into warm, unstable, and super moist air. This will set the stage for a line of showers, downpours and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into the night, and some could be strong to severe with hail and damaging wind gusts, so stay tuned for more on that.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND
Sunday is the pick of the weekend with partly sunny skies and very warm temps well into the 80s, and approaching 90 degrees in some spots like the Springfield/Hartford corridor and points east of there in the lowlands.
Still, isolated showers or thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and evening.
In addition, Monday is looking like a stronger chance for strong/severe thunderstorms as a piece of energy swings through the region, and behind THAT, we should get slightly drier air and more settled conditions by the middle of next week before the heat and humidity reloads and pushes back into the region by late week.
Gonna be a hot and humid July, folks.
Ok, that does it for now, stay tuned for updates to this page this afternoon, evening and night and tomorrow.
Again, if you’re wondering what the weather is doing, just bookmark this page and stop on over, I’ll be here.
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Have a good day…