*ALERT* FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION STARTING MIDNIGHT AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ELSA’S TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING… BEFORE THAT, A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD BE COME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WMASS AND NORTHWEST CT THIS AFTERNOON, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS LITCHFIELD AND FAIRFIELD COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS… HEAVY, TROPICAL RAINS OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE 2-4″+ RAINFALL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON… COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS… WEEKEND IS LOOKING NICER IN COMPARISON… WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK NEXT WEEK BY TUESDAY… 7:15AM THURS…
Good morning everybody, for those who read my 2am post about the overnight thunderstorms, do you think I should continue to refer to Hartford as Fartford?
Maybe I should use my reading glasses for middle-of-the-night posts?
That one even made me LOL! For those who don’t appreciate scatalogical humor, my apologies, but I’m still a 12 year old somewhere down in there.
That was some serious rockin’ and rollin’ last night as another frontal boundary wound through the region.
As for today, we have some morning fog to burn through, then we are essentially in the clouds for the day.
We have a frontal boundary stalled to our south, and we are in the cold air damming flow from higher pressures to our north, which will allow for most of us to remain in the low to mid 70s for highs, with a few scattered showers at times into the early afternoon.
Now, at the same time, Elsa’s burgeoning influence from the south as it tracks north-northeast, and a shortwave moving in from the west, will cause a kink in that stalled front to our south to return northeast as warm front, pushing into southeast NY, northwest CT and possibly into southwest MA.
Temps in these areas may rise a bit by later in the day, but the main result will be a much more unstable atmosphere in this area, which will contribute to stronger wind shear, and the potential for not only isolated strong to severe thunderstorms into southwest MA, northwest CT and the southern Taconics, but also an isolated tornado or two, so be alert today!
After that threat generally wanes by 6-8pm, the heavy rains from Elsa’s northern shield as it interacts with an incoming upper level jet and mid level low to our northwest will develop across the region from southwest to northeast overnight.
Rain will fall heavily at times overnight, especially after midnight and through Friday morning.
Flash flooding will be possible across the region, as anywhere from about 2-5″ of rain falls onto already-saturated soils and ground from previous copious rainfall events that transpired over the previous few weeks.
Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s and the moistness factor will be pinned into the red.
For tomorrow morning, heavy rains continue, and some southeasterly wind gusts between 25-40mph may reach northeast CT and southeast Worcester County, whereas tropical storm force gusts will push 40-60mph over Rhode Island, southeast MA, the Cape and Islands where Tropical Storm Warnings have been hoisted, and wind damage and outages are expected to be scattered about that part of the world.
Gusts in the WMass region should be somewhere between 15-30mph, no big deal, generally speaking.
By mid-afternoon, Elsa will have tracked northeastward through either eastern CT or RI and will be lifting rapidly away from the region, with a cutoff in heavy rainfall expected between 1-3pm from west to east.
Highs tomorrow will reach the 75-80º range and skies should brighten later in the afternoon.
A cold front will still need to track eastward through the region during the evening, so expect additional scattered showers at times, and maybe a thunderstorm or two as that features sweeps the region. Lows will be in the low 60s.
The weekend features a drier, more relaxed weather pattern with northwesterly flow behind Elsa working into the region.
Both days should be partly sunny on average with highs 75-80º and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s with an afternoon pop-up shower or storm possible, though most of us stay dry I think.
Humidity and warmth build back into the region early to mid next week with highs slowly working back into the low to mid 80s by Wednesday with afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Have a great day, and I will update you later on any severe storm or tornadic threat west of the I-91 corridor, as well as our incoming tropical system which will be mainly a heavy rain and potential flood producer for the WMass region.
Stay dry!