SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, SHOWERS AND DOWNPOURS ARE SCATTERING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES, AND LITCHFIELDS AT 7PM…
Good evening everybody, thanks for all the rain totals and reports earlier today, and all through this busy weather week!
We’ve got some more action to work through tonight, and then we should have a much quieter and drier weekend compared to the past week.
It’s still very muggy behind Elsa’s departure, with dewpoint temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s with a decent amount of instability leftover.
As such, we are seeing some ambling, slow-moving small-sized showers, downpours and thunderstorms moving into the southern Berkshires and western Litchfield County and Taconics this evening.
These, because they are slow moving, may drop a decent amount of rain on one area as they track east-southeast through our part of southwestern New England.
They should move through northern CT and southern portions of WMass through midnight, and may survive the trip through southern central MA as well, with a few isolated showers elsewhere.
Aside from some pulse-ups of frequent lightning for a spell, or some briefly gusty winds, I really don’t see these accomplishing much more than producing torrential rain, which may produce one flash flood warning, if any at all (probably none at all).
Lows tonight will only drop into the low to mid 60s with patchy fog late.
This weekend looks nicer, but we can’t rule out a few scattered morning showers on Saturday with drying thereafter. Highs will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s under partly sunny skies, with a late afternoon shower or storm possible. Lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s with some lower humidity air working into the region.
Sunday kinda looks like a repeat of Saturday, except no morning showers.
By Sunday night into Monday a warm front works into the region, and shower chances increase, and humidity increases by early to mid week, along with a heat surge bringing us into the mid 80s or so by mid to late week with instability scattered showers each afternoon, and possibly a thunderstorm.
No severe weather is “surfacing” on my inner radar at the moment, just run of the mill summer stuff, with no heat waves in sight at the moment.
Have a great night, and watch to the west if you’re out and about, you may need to duck inside, especially if along and south of the Pike in the Berkshires or Hampden County, or in northwest CT earlier this evening.
Thanks and take care, Dave
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ass
TROPICAL STORM ELSA TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA BY NOON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TO THE WMASS REGION… WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 30MPH LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME SEEING LITTLE WIND… GUSTS 25-40MPH POSSIBLE NORTHEAST CT, SOUTHERN CMASS AND EASTERNMOST HAMPDEN COUNTY… FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE REGION-WIDE, THOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF I-91 (THOUGH STILL POSSIBLE IN WMASS)… RAINS ENDS 1-3PM FROM WEST TO EAST… SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS TRAILING ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH… NICER WEEKEND AHEAD, WARMER, MORE HUMID AND THUNDERSTORM-Y BY NEXT TUES-WED… 6:45AM FRI…
Good morning everybody, it has been a week in the weather department, hasn’t it? I’m ready for a nap or two this weekend, but we’re not there yet, so peckity peck peck, and typity type type, and clickity clack click go my musical little fingers, knocking out fast rhythmic phrases in an attempt to get impact details you can use to make plans, protect what needs protecting, and prepare for what’s on the way.
Currently, temps are in the low to mid 60s and we have patchy fog around, which will dissipate back into the ethers as Elsa approaches.
Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s today and it will be humid, for obvious reasons.
We have some heavier rainfall in northwest MA, southern VT and southwest NH, and lighter scattered showers southeast of there until you get to Springfield points east and south where lighter stratiform rains are developing, while at the same time heavier rain from Elsa’s northern rain shield is pushing north into northern CT and southern central MA.
Elsa’s center is located east of central NJ and is starting to intensify a bit and track northeast, headed between Montauk Point, LI and Block Island, RI, through southeast MA and into the Gulf of Maine later this afternoon.
A band of subsidence which I was concerned about yesterday in the evening has formed over a good portion of WMass from the southern Berkshires / northernmost Litchfield northeast through the central Pioneer Valley and into eastern Franklin County, with heavier and/or steadier rain northwest of there, and south and southeast of there.
This is where totals from Elsa itself today will likely be less than to the southeast of that line (last night I referred to it as Westfield to Amherst to Athol).
By mid-morning, the influence of the upper level system to our northwest and Elsa’s extratropical transition (meaning a tropical system that transitions from a warm-core through its vertical extent, to a cold core as you rise in height) means the precip shield should expand northward from its center throughout WMass with varying intensities, heaviest along and southeast of that aforementioned line (which is not set in stone, but to be used as an approximation… weather is like driving a boat, folks, it’s fluid and changeable).
RAIN AND FLOODING
So expect heavier rainfall with tropical downpours at times mid morning to very early afternoon, with generally 1-4″ of rainfall expected, with possibly less than an inch in some WMass locations, and possibly over 4″ in northeast CT, southern Worcester County.
The flash flooding risk continues with Flash Flood Watches hoisted across the region, but the most likely area to see Flash Flood Warnings be issued today for active flooding is in north-central and northeast CT, eastern Hampden County and the southern 2/3rds of Worcester County, and points east and southeast of there.
WIND IMPACTS
As Elsa makes its approach into Rhode Island later this morning and early afternoon, wind gusts could pick up to 30-40mph in northeast CT, southern CMass and even easternmost Hampden County as wind fields also tend to expand when storms undergo these ET transitions.
There may even be some 40+ gusts out of the east or northeast by early afternoon in Windham County CT up into southern CMass as the storm pulls away.
TORNADOES POSSIBLE FOR CAPE COD/ISLANDS
I wanted to include a special note for the Cape and Islands including the Rhode Island ocean shore.
With tropical cyclones, there is a LOT of spin produced in the atmosphere, and oftentimes you can get fast-moving, little EF-0 or even EF-1 tornadoes that rip through a region, tend to be rain-wrapped, and can form and dissipate quickly.
So, not only will the Cape and Islands, and much of RI and southeasternmost MA off of the Cape experience wind gusts of 40-60mph late this morning and into the early afternoon as Elsa rips through, but waterspouts that form off shore, could come ashore as tornadoes anywhere along the southern RI coast and Cape and the Islands, so if you are down there, or have friends/family down that way, be sure they are aware of changing weather conditions and today’s potential.
Usually I stick to my coverage area, which is challenging enough for me, and is 50 miles in every direction from Northampton center, but when more impactful weather comes along, I will (at times) expand outward, so just wanted to mention this and that I might post alerts of any Tornado Warnings that may be issued to our southeast today.
ELSA VAMOOSES
So, Elsa will be pulling its rain shield northeastward and out of here between 1-3pm.
We may even see the sunshine for a while this mid to late afternoon which is when our highs in the mid to upper 70s should be reached.
By early this evening, a cold front will be approaching from the west along with trailing energy behind Elsa. There will be enough instabilty and moisture leftover to produce additional scattered showers, downpours and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong, especially south of the Mass Pike in WMass and northwest CT.
Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s with patchy fog possible late.
Saturday looks like the pick of the weekend as high pressure moves in and produces a partly sunny day with tolerable humidity and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with a pop-up shower or t-storm possible in the afternoon. Lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Sunday looks pretty nice too, similar temps, similar sky cover, similar shower potential in the afternoon, but clouds should build late in the afternoon and evening ahead of a warm front pushing in slowly from the southwest.
Humidity should start to increase Sunday night into Monday as showers develop along this frontal boundary after midnight. Lows will be in the low 60s.
Monday looks mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms at times, and highs either side of 80º, and lows in the low to mid 60s with more showers and storms as the warm front pushes through.
Tuesday through Thursday look humid and warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80s, possibly reaching the upper 80s by mid-week, with lows in the 60s
Each day carries the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms, so typical summer time weather with heat building during the day, resulting in afternoon scattered showers and storms.
Have a great day, stay dry best you can, and I will be updating throughout the day, so check back with me even if I don’t magically pop up into the top of your feed.
And please post your condition reports when you can! Thanks!