7:05A-THURS: RAINY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, THOUGH UNLIKELY… SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED BY LATER MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, T-STORM POSSIBLE… FRIDAY IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION, WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING… HURRICANE HENRI MAY MAKE LANDFALL ON CAPE COD AND CAUSE DAMAGE DOWN THAT WAY, BUT STILL TIME FOR TRACK CHANGES… FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE UNTL 8PM TONIGHT FOR SVT/SWNH…
Good morning everybody, it’s not often we’re talking about back to back potential impacts from two tropical systems in New England, but here we are, so let’s rise and cloud, lovelies, and get down to business!
QUICK STORY
–We have spin in the lower atmosphere this morning, and we can’t rule out a weak tornado as this heavy band of rain moves through, though it’s UNLIKELY
–Rain varies in intensity, and some thunderstorms possible through mid to late morning
–We get a lull by late morning, and move into a more scattered shower/storm threat through the day and into the evening
–Street flooding is possible in localized spots, a general 1-4″ should fall, with some sub-1″ areas possible
–Lull on Friday, with a resumption of scattered showers and storms Saturday and Saturday night
–Hurricane Henri tracks north toward southeast New England Sunday afternoon and night into Monday, with possible wind damage and flooding issues, but coastal and otherwise, stay tuned for updates
–Humid, warm and semi-inclement conditions (today’s new band name) for next week in Henri’s wake
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DISCUSSION
A period of heavy rain early this morning is working through the southern Berkshires and western CT, into north-central CT and will then punch north-northeast into the central and southern Pioneer Valley and spread northeast into eastern portions of WMass, CMass and northeast CT as the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred (now located over central NY) tracks northeast into central New England this Thursday.
As is normally the case with cyclones of tropical origins, there is some spin in the lower atmosphere, and there were some radar-based Tornado Warnings issued earlier in southeast NY, and there still looks like a little spin over the Hudson Valley, but for the moment, we’re in the clear.
Regardless, a weak spin-up could occur at any time today through about early afternoon, but they are unlikely.
What is more likely is a rainy morning, followed by more scattered showers and thunderstorms with many areas seeing breaks in activity from late morning through the evening.
Highs will rise into the mid 70s to low 80s and it will be of course very humid. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 60s with a few showers around.
For Friday, we get a break between systems, so expect a partly sunny to mostly cloudy day thanks to some subsidence between lows, with highs in the low to mid 80s, and only a spot shower or storm in the afternoon possible. Lows will be in the 65-70º range.
Then we turn to the Saturday to Monday period which could be quite impactful for the southern New England region at large.
We’re going to be watching several atmospheric players in the wake of the remnants of T.S. Fred to see how they ultimately help guide the track of what will become Hurricane Henri.
Fortunately Henri will likely only remain a Category 1 hurricane, but it’s still a hurricane with a sustained wind core of 74-95mph, so a formidable and dangerous storm under any analysis.
On Saturday, another very warm day will visit us with highs in the low to mid 80s, with perhaps upper 70s in northwesternmost MA and SVT/SWNH. Lows will be in the 60s to near 70º.
A low center will be approaching from the west as it moves into western NY and PA, and this will help provide enough lift to combine with copious moisture/humidity to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Our northeastern low center tracks east and closer to our region, while high pressure may weaken just south of New England, as what is called a “downstream ridge” develops northeast of Hurricane Henri, partially in response to the low pressure of Henri over the western Atlantic.
These three aspects will likely help guide Henri to track due north toward the Cape and Islands on Sunday morning.
By Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, conditions may deteriorate rapidly in southeast MA and eastern RI.
Beyond that, it’s hard to yet know what if any impacts we’d feel here in the WMass region, though certainly if you live in southern Worcester County or northeast CT (the southeastern extent of my main coverage area), and points southeast of there, I would be paying VERY close attention to future updates.
Highs on Sunday will be in the 75-80º range, and it will be mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s.
After Henri passes and does what it does, we remain most of next week in a soupy, humid, very warm, scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon type of pattern, to which I say BLECH.
But, that’s the way the cookie crumbles, and we’ll muddle through because we have to, end of story.
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