Good evening everybody, at the moment our severe weather threat continues for northwest CT, southwest MA, and southeastern NY.
Northeast of those areas (the Pioneer Valley north and east, and including the northern Berkshires and northwest hilltowns of western Franklin County and northwestern Hampshire County) is in question, because the warm frontal boundary responsible for laying the groundwork for severe weather may not penetrate that far northeast.
The front is expected to stall out somewhere across southwest MA and northwest CT, but exactly where, remains to be seen, and will be crucial as to who is more likely to see severe weather vs. run of the mill scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Where supercell thunderstorms are allowed to blossom skyward, and where the lift of the incoming cold front combines and clashes with the soupy, warmer, moisture-rich air to the southwest of the warm frontal boundary, is where hail the size of golf balls to tennis balls, and wind gusts as high as 75mph could impact the region, along with a tornado or two.
And remember that we’ll also see some morning showers and maybe a thunderstorm west of I-91 as the warm front approaches the region… that is not the severe weather threat… Timeframe of potential severe weather impact is between 2-7pm.
***This severe weather potential deserves your attention… stay with me tomorrow, as I’ll be here all morning, noon and night until the threat passes us by***
Now, we’ve all lived long enough to see a severe weather outbreak forming a day out, only to see the brunt of impacts track much further away, or fizzle like it did yesterday, and though a few of us were rocked and rolled.
In other words, this isn’t set in stone, but it’s looking more likely than not to occur in the areas listed above, and I would urge you to check in with me first thing tomorrow morning when I will post my morning report by 7am with an update with the latest information at that time.
It’s not often we get an “Enhanced” level severe thunderstorm threat in our region from the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK, so this one bears watching.
Please do check in with your family, friends and neighbors if you live in, near, or know folks in the areas listed above, and please let them know about this online weather community resource.
Thank you, and let’s hope the potential that is being seen today doesn’t materialize tomorrow.
Trust me, it’s nothing any of us want to see, even if we love a good thunderstorm… Have a good evening and enjoy the lovely, peaceful, and and truly calm-before-the-storm weather we’re having tonight.
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[A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS… GREATEST THREAT EXISTS OVER SOUTHWEST MA, NORTHWEST CT, AND SOUTHEAST NY (LITCHFIELDS INTO WESTERN HARTFORD COUNTY, SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS OF NY, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN HILLTOWNS OF WESTERN HAMPSHIRE/HAMPDEN COUNTIES)… SUBSTANTIAL RAIN POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE LAURA TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH BUT COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEND SOME RAIN TO OUR MODERATE/MAJOR DROUGHT… TODAY IS GORGEOUS, DRY, COOL…FRIDAY IS PLEASANT, AND NEXT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK LOVELY… 7:10AM WED]
Good morning everybody, before I jump into our severe weather potential tomorrow, I will start by saying today looks lovely. Northwest winds should kick up and gust over 20mph at times, but it will be super dry, sunny, and lovely, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Remember that most of us are in a moderate to major drought, so fire spread potential will be elevated this afternoon with plenty of ground fuels, some wind gusts, and dry conditions, so this something to be aware of.
Tonight, lows will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s under mostly clear skies early, but building clouds around or after midnight.
POTENTIALLY PROBLEMATIC SETUP TOMORROW
Overnight, an MCS (MCS = Mesoscale Convective System, of the type we experienced in southwestern Worcester County into southeastern portions of WMass this past Sunday, which is a cluster of thunderstorms that form a self-sustaining more-or-less cohesive convection system) will be tracking southeast through NY state and heading for western New England on Thursday morning.
This will likely produce a cloudy start for tomorrow, along with some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. However, that storm cluster should be weakening on approach.
After that, we will be watching a storm system passing to our north as it floats its warm front northeast into southwestern New England.
How far northeast does this warm front penetrate? This is the BIG issue, as southwest of that front, it will be warm, very humid, and very unstable.
With an incoming, southeasterly-tracking cold front later on Thursday on the heels of our northeasterly- tracking warm front, there will be turning of the air in the low levels.
With strong wind shear aloft, this could produce a couple of tornadoes southwest of the warm front.
Northeast of the warm front it will be much more stable, a bit cooler, less humid, and while some showers and thunderstorms should be present across the WMass region tomorrow, severe weather would be much less likely in that sector.
So that’s the question, and we don’t know the answer right now, but the best chance for severe weather in the form of damaging straight line wind gusts, large hail, torrential rain, frequent lightning and a couple of tornadoes is in northwest CT, the southern/central Taconics, the southern/central Berkshires, and the southwestern hilltowns in western Hampden County and western Hampshire County, on southwestward down into southeastern NY and northeast PA.
Storms in the form of supercells earlier on during this potential outbreak could lead to more of a squall line with bow echoes (outward bulges in the line where damaging straight-line wind gusts maximize) as the front moves through.
Timing of these strong/severe storms would be about 3-8pm Thursday afternoon.
Highs should reach the 75-80º range and lows will be near 60º.
For Friday, another very nice day lies ahead with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s under partly sunny skies, and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s as clouds thicken once again.
Another storm will track to our north on Saturday, and this time the remnants of Hurricane Laura will be paralleling its track to our south off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline during the afternoon and at night.
Laura may even lean its track northeast a bit toward Nantucket as it heads out to sea, and this looks to enhance our rainy-looking Saturday with the potential for showers, downpours, and even a few thunderstorms, some of which may become strong.
If we’re lucky, we’ll see an actual rain shield form that could bring well over an inch of sky water to the ground of the WMass region, and that would be most welcome, though some street flooding could be possible in spots.
Highs will be in the 70s on Saturday with lows near 60 degrees. No wind impact is expected on Saturday or Saturday night.
The Sunday-through-Tuesday timeframe looks Autumnal and lovely with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the low 50s with much drier air moving into the region.
Here’s hoping that tomorrow’s severe weather threat (with a lower chance on Saturday) are the last in this exhausting line of unsavory summer weather.
HURRICANE LAURA
If you know folks who live along the coast in southwestern Louisiana or southeasternmost Texas, they need to get the heck out of there, as Laura is likely to be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall, and the storm surge will be destructive in spots, along with very high wind and very heavy rain as the hurricane punches northward inland, and tracks over the eastern 50 miles of TX along the LA border, then up into Arkansas, Missouri, and then hooking east into the Ohio Valley and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday.
Because the storm will have high wind and moving at a good pace, hurricane force wind gusts could extend well inland, especially on the east side of the storm center, which would impact western Louisiana the most.
Enjoy this gorgeous day and savor it, folks, because tomorrow may not be so savory. I hope none of it comes to pass.