6:45AM-FRI: RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TODAY, LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN FORM OF STRAIGHT LINE WIND OR A WEAK TORNADO… HOWEVER, SUCH A SEVERE STORM IS MOST LIKELY OVER TOLLAND/WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT AND POINTS EAST, AWAY FROM WMASS… WINDY THIS MORNING IN THE BERKSHIRES/SVT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH EARLY… ISOLATED OUTAGES AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE… HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND MOVES THROUGH 11AM-3PM OR SO… ROUND 2 TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON WITH A PUNCH OF RAIN AND DOWNPOURS, AND GUSTY SOUTHERLIES, THEN GUSTY WESTERLIES AS THE STORM RUNS OVER THE WMASS REGION, SOME GRAUPEL, SMALL HAIL, AND SNOW POSSIBLE… COASTAL STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY…
Good morning folks, we’ve got dynamic, active weather for today so be sure to pack your rain gear. Also, another round of rain tomorrow afternoon could be heavy, windy, and some small hail or graupel is possible with lowered freezing levels aloft, plus some snow on the back end, so lots to run through this morning.
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DISCUSSION:
We already have showers that have been moving through parts of the WMass region as moisture increases, and a low level jet streak (i.e. faster river of air a mile up) begins its approach from south to north, which will produce our heaviest rain when it’s overhead by late morning into mid afternoon.
We are cool right now, temps in the 40s which are wedged southwest through WMass and into northern CT but Danbury, CT is already in the low 60s, with highs expected in the WMass region to reach the low to mid 60s.
This warm front will likely penetrate northeast through the WMass region, but it probably doesn’t get too much farther north than the MA/VT-NH line before it gets overtaken by this afternoon’s cold frontal passage (maybe it makes it up to the Rt. 9 corridor in southern VT/NH).
This warmer air will likely eliminate any low level temperature inversions, which will allow the wind aloft in the low level jet streak to be tapped and brought down to the surface, especially in any downpours or thunderstorms that are able to form before sunset.
North Adams was already gusting over 30mph this morning, and wind gusts of 25mph to as high as 45mph is possible in spots out of the south and southeast this late morning into the afternoon, so some isolated power outages are possible.
Rainfall totals again should total in the .75-1.5″ range, but we can’t rule out some areas approaching 2″.
To wrap up today, showers develop and become more numerous and heavier through this morning, with heaviest/steadiest rain and wind 11am to 3pm or so, then ending by this early evening, with lows in the low to mid 30s behind the front with patchy dense fog possible (watch for freezing fog up in southern VT, northwest MA late).
SATURDAY MINI-TEMPEST
For Saturday, a seemingly innocuous day, but nay nay, my friends!
This is one of those quick-hitting storms that you read about from two centuries ago where no one had any idea what was coming, and the weather changed on a time and swept the region with rain, wind, ice, and even snow.
Now, this is a TINY little wave, it’s not going to have big impacts overall, but the quickness and abrupt change in weather conditions is what will be notable about it.
So, Saturday starts off mostly sunny, yahoo! Highs reach the 50s, gloriously seasonable! High pressure rules into the early afternoon, alright alright alright, as Matthew McConaughey likes to say!
However, by early afternoon, clouds will be increasing rapidly, and our little atmospheric bowling ball will be rolling around the southeastern flank of our upper level low over the Great Lakes, and headed right down the lane into southern New England.
This will cause us to become overcast, and then we’ll see rain showers move in around 6-8pm from west to east and last until about midnight with downpours possible, and even a thunderstorm, with small hail or graupel, and a change to snow in the Berkshires, Taconics, western hilltowns and southern VT, with rain and snow mix possible even in the valley at night!
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Southerly wind gusts may blow up to 30mph ahead of this feature, and veer out of the west and gust 30-40mph for a time at night as the pressure gradient gets maximized with high pressure not too far east, and the low passing overhead.
Also, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some coatings up to maybe an inch of snow in the high peaks if things really come together, so stay tuned and I will keep you updated.
After midnight, any rain or snow clears out of here, and lows drop into the upper 20s to low 30s.
Sunday is also mostly sunny to start, but colder, with highs in the 40s.
We then watch to see where and how fast a coastal storm develops and if it can back the precip shield west toward our region to bring more mixed rain and snow showers Sunday night into Monday, so lots going on over the next few days!
More seasonable and sunnier conditions develop in the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe, with highs in the 50s.
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