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Good morning everybody, we’ve got a mostly cloudy Sunday on the way after this super frosty start. While a few sprinkles can’t be ruled out in northwest MA or SVT, it should be dry for today. Highs will reach the upper 40s to low 50s.
After sunset is when things get interesting, to be sure.
Remember that the images I attached come with little mini-explanations, so check those out if you’re interested.
Ok, so what we’re hoping for, is that morning signals of a temperature inversion hold true for tonight.
For background, any wind flow 2500-10000 feet aloft more easily mixes down to the surface when strong low level lapse rates are in place (“lapse rates” refer to significantly warmer surface temps as compared to significantly cooler temps aloft, which is a normal vertical temp profile… temps generally cool as you head out into Space).
Tonight, wind speeds about a mile up are expected to crank at 70-90mph out of the south! And, a narrow band of heavy downpours with possible thunder will be moving through between 8pm-midnight from west to east (8pm near the MA/NY line, midnight in eastern Worcester County/northeast CT).
Sometimes if even with an inversion in place, heavy convective rainfall is enough to overpower it and bring strong wind to the surface.
I think it’s prudent to assume that at least some high terrain locations (especially east of the I-91 corridor as the low level jet increases and stronger winds lower toward the surface as the cold front tracks further east) are going to lose power tonight, given that those folks will likely see wind gusts of 35-55mph, possibly higher.
However, if the inversion becomes a non-issue tonight, then the entire WMass region could see wind gusts of 35-55mph out of the south and southeast, possibly up to 60mph in spots.
Again, the 8pm-midnight timeframe is the one to watch, even though showers may develop earlier than that out in the Berkshires say by 6pm or 7pm, and then head east.
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Lows tonight will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, with westerly winds gusting 20-30mph behind the cold frontal passage.
For Monday, expect a breezy, partly sunny day with west wind gusts over 20mph at times. Highs will be in the 40s with lows in the upper 20s to near freezing. Clouds should build in the high terrain west of the I-91 corridor after midnight as the lake effect machine is reinvigorated by a shortwave that will track into the region on Tuesday.
For Tuesday, highs will reach the upper 30s to mid 40s. A shortwave will track through the region and help bring some lake effect snow showers into the Taconics, Berkshires and southern VT early with a west-northwest track/flow.
Then, as the day wears on, the track will become more northwest and bring some snow showers into the Litchfield hills, southern Taconics, and southern Berkshires. A few coatings are possible, nothing impactful, as it currently looks.
Lows Tuesday night will be cold, down into the low to mid 20s as the departing shortwave pulls the coldest air if the new season into the region for Wednesday.
High pressure builds in on Wednesday, and it will be COLD, with highs only in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and with lows only in the teens! At least we’ll have sunny skies during the day, and it will be clear at night.
The late week period sees moderating temps with continued fair weather with highs 35-40º on Thursday and in the 40s to low 50s Friday and Saturday.
Have a great day, and please stay tuned to this page for updates on tonight’s potentially damaging wind event.
I will keep you up to date, so check back if I don’t appear in your feed, and please note that my 2021 Weather Calendar sale ENDS NEXT SUNDAY, it’s the best batch of local images taken by fans and followers I’ve ever had, so shop safely and locally from home, and if you value my work, it’s a great way to support it while getting some holiday gifts this year, thank you!
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