[ALERT] LIKELIHOOD FOR A POTENT, CLASSIC SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NOR’EASTER IS INCREASING THIS EVENING… IF TRENDS CONTINUE, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR FOLKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER IN MA, CT AND RI… ALL SNOW FOR THE WMASS REGION… WE ARE STILL 78-84 HOURS FROM ONSET, AND UPPER / SURFACE LOW TRACKS *NOT* SET IN STONE, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES… DOUBLE-DIGIT SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE IN WMASS… FULL DISCUSSION BELOW, READER’S DIGEST AT THE BOTTOM FOR THE TL;DR PEOPLE… 6:55PM TUES…

Good evening everybody, I am admittedly doing all I can to pull my excitement back like a horse that wants to rip out of its restraints and gallop wildly in every direction into an open field, but I must say, the ingredients are steadily trending together to increase the potential for some of us (especially east of the I-91 corridor) to see a major snowstorm on Saturday and Saturday night, and even blizzard conditions (1/4 mile or less visibility with gusts of 35mph or greater simultaneously).

Major pieces of guidance are slowly coalescing on a storm track somewhere between Block Island and The Benchmark, which is located at 40ºN / 70ºW (about 80 miles due south of Nantucket).

The western envelope of this potential track (i.e. near Block Island) would drop 10-20″ on a larger part of the greater WMass region, but if it’s more east (i.e. south of Nantucket), amounts would come down under 10″, with that 10-20″ sliding east over EMass and RI.

At this stage of the process, it’s about narrowing down upper, mid and surface low center tracks/paths, watching trends in guidance, observations, etc.

I am going to list out the salient points for our weather through Friday morning below, and then move into Saturday’s storm potential.

Again, scroll to the bottom if you only have a minute or so to get the quick Saturday storm scoop.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING
–After some unexpected snow showers this afternoon, the Taconics or Berkshires might see a flurry, and lows will drop into the single digits as we clear out overnight with westerly breezes
–For Wednesday, a gorgeous but cold, sunny day with highs in the mid to upper teens, with lows crashing into the single digits below zero with light to calm wind
–For Thursday, a mostly sunny day arrives with highs in the low to mid 20s and lows in the mid teens as clouds increase
–On Friday highs will crest into the upper 20s to low 30s as a frontal boundary works east through the region bringing some snow showers, or periods of light snow by afternoon
–Lows are expected to drop into the low to mid teens as the storm’s snow shield tracks north toward New England, arriving around or after midnight

STORM SETUP
We have a lot of atmospheric players on the field for this one, so let’s jump in.

Setting the table will be the aforementioned cold frontal passage on Friday as a super deep upper low continues to track east and through central Quebec toward Labrador, Canada, creating a giant cyclonic (i.e. counterclockwise) flow around it and through much of eastern North America.

This will help to produce broad but light lift in the WMass region and sweep our surface cold front east toward Boston, consequently producing some snow showers Friday afternoon and evening.

This will also serve to re-establish the cold air at all levels of the atmosphere before our storm arrives around midnight into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning, and act to create divergence at the jet stream level, which will serve as an upper level vacuum, sucking air up, out and away from the western Atlantic Ocean and eastern seaboard.

This is what will help low pressure undergo bombogenesis during the day on Saturday as it turns north toward New England.

UPPER LOW AND SURFACE DISTURBANCE
Next up is our upper low which will be diving southeast out of Manitoba, Canada, through the upper Mississippi Valley and toward the western Ohio Valley.

Earlier today this piece of energy looked like it would be flatter and serve to push our developing surface low more easterly, giving the WMass region a more moderate snowfall, and possibly even light the farther west you went, however that may be starting to change now.

If trends continue, this upper low will likely dive southeast while a surface disturbance and area of copious moisture down near the Deep South extends east of Georgia and South Carolina into the Atlantic, just to the southeast of the incoming upper low.

MAY THE PHASE BE WITH YOU
These two pieces will phase and cause the trough (a large area of lower than average pressures aloft) just west of them to align north/south from the eastern Great lakes down into the central Appalachians, and start to orient itself negatively (more northwest to southeast in its axis), and draw the developing surface low north up the coast, causing it to develop rapidly and undergo bombogenesis as it comes north (meaning, a rapid pressure fall of 24 millibars or more in 24 hours or less… this could do that in TWELVE hours!).

However, EXACTLY where this phasing occurs (how far west or east along the eastern U.S.) will be the key in determining whether the WMass region sees a light to moderate snowfall, or a major nor’easter with double-digits fluffy totals.

VERTICALLY-STACKED LOWS SLOW
In addition, if the surface low deepens rapidly and low enough, all of the low centers (remember, low pressure systems have centers at all the levels of our atmosphere, just not the surface), could “stack” and align vertically, causing the storm to slow down, pull more west, produce very heavy snow bands, wrap in dry air, do a loop, and all sorts of hard to predict atmospheric acrobatics.

In other words, a rapid deepening could be favorable for a heavier snowstorm in the WMass region.

It will be powerful either way, but if it tracks more east of Nantucket, it will blast the Cape, RI, easternmost CT and EMass into southern CMass, and be more of a light to moderate snowstorm, sparing us the worst here in WMass and points north in SVT and SWNH.

CHECK IN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, FOLKS
Anyway, I just wanted to peek under the hood a bit more and show you want I’m seeing this evening. You can click through the graphics as well for more information.

This is a developing winter storm, and changes and refinements will likely need to be made.

Honestly, some of the guidance is printing out data I haven’t seen before since starting this page over 10 years ago, so I’m a bit worked up.

I am a weather nut, at heart.

But I’m not trying to be a hype-head here. However, it’s my job to raise the alert level if I see something in my digital periscope that raises my neck hairs a little bit, and this is doing just that, so please stay tuned through the rest of the week with me.

REPORT SCHEDULE
I will be posting a morning and evening report tomorrow, then a morning, noon and evening report Thursday and Friday, and likely a late Friday night update, then I’m with you from 4am through the entire event on Saturday and Saturday evening.

I will post more details with my morning update, and please message me if you want any of my leftover 2022 Weather Wall Calendars, I’m selling them at a discount, just message me and I’ll get back to you. See you in the morning, thanks for reading, and check the RD version below, thanks!

READER’S DIGEST VERSION
–Light snow showers Friday afternoon with cold front
–These continue at night, steadier snow moves in after midnight
–Storm track still not set in stone, but guidance is honing in on a more westerly track somewhere between Block Island and south of Nantucket
–The further west it tracks, the more likely we will see heavy snow, gusty winds, isolated to scattered outages (due to wind, not snow weight, it’ll be fluffy)
–The further east it tracks, more of a light to moderate snowstorm for WMass region
–Brunt of storm is Saturday morning and afternoon into early evening
–Storm could last up to 18 hours or more if it slows, stalls, or loops south of southeast MA
–Blizzard conditions are possible east of the I-91 corridor, and a verified Blizzard of 2022 could materialize from Willimantic, CT to Worcester, MA south and east
–Coastal flooding on the Cape and Islands probable regardless of track
–Wind gusts of 30-50mph possible in WMass, and 50-70mph possible over the Cape and Islands
–Storm is gone by Sunday

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6:55AM-TUES: HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM STILL POSSIBLE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON… BY TOMORROW MORNING CLARITY SHOULD BE SHARPENING REGARDING IMPACTS FOR THE WMASS REGION… WATCH OUT FOR SLICK SPOTS THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MA/SVT… AFTER A MILD TUESDAY, IT WILL BECOME VERY COLD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING… THEN, WE STAND WATCH…

Good morning folks, we’ve got some slick spots out there this morning with many folks getting a little burst of snow overnight that produced a coating to an inch or so, with some folks in northern CT getting over an inch.

How much did you get? Let me know.

We’ve got a Mildening, a Coldening, and then a potential blizzard for some late Friday night into Saturday afternoon, but before we expand on those details below, I’ve got a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with a new location in West Springfield, MA.
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DISCUSSION:
Good morning everybody, whether things are kind of working, working well, or barely working in your life, at least we’re still here and if we’re still here, we have a chance, no matter how small, that things could either turn our way or continue in the right direction…. so there’s that!

There’s also a fresh light blanket of snow on the ground for most of us, which has made the place pretty, to be sure.

It’s also produced some slippery road surfaces mainly on secondary and tertiary roads, so watch for slick spots and/or black ice this morning.

We also have a few more snow showers that will possibly move through by 9am, mainly in the central/northern Berkshires and Taconics into the NW hilltowns and up into SVT.

For the rest of the day, clouds will be decreasing late morning into the afternoon as a cold front works through the region. We’ll enjoy highs into the upper 20s to mid 30s from SVT down into WMass/CMass/N.CT, but temps will start falling late, and northwest winds will gust up to 20mph at times.

Lows tonight will bottom out into the mid to high single digits under mostly clear skies.

For Wednesday, high pressure will be building from northwest to southeast through the region, producing mostly sunny skies, lighter winds with time, and highs only in the 15-20º range. Fortunately for us, winds will become light Wednesday night which will help temps to crash into the single digits below zero, but wind chill issues won’t be adding to our wintry misery.

Thursday mildens back up with highs into the mid to upper 20s under mostly sunny skies, with lows in the teens as partly cloudy skies develop.

By Friday to Saturday, we turn our attention west and south.

We’ll be watching a southern branch system develop in the Deep South and push toward the Carolina coast, while upper level energy is direct southeast out of the Plains and toward the central and southern Appalachians as rounds the northeastern bend of a big ridge in the western U.S.

Does this upper level energy dive straight southeast (pushing the storm more east of the Cape) or does it track a bit more south of southeast, and help guide the storm closer into the coast, nailing the WMass region with major nor’easter?

This will make the difference in a light to moderate snowfall in the WMass region, and a raging heavy snowstorm with blizzard conditions for some (east of I-91 in MA and CT), strong winds, scattered outages, and coastal flooding.

The European guidance is showing some scary surface pressure numbers in its ensemble mean forecast (ensemble models will take initial conditions upstream from our region and alter those variables a little bit to produce multiple low center locations downstream, where we are).

To be honest, I’ve never seen ensemble models output so many deep and powerful low pressure center potentials in my life, so I’m glued to this storm potential, and so should you.

But, we’re still too far away to have levels of certainty to talk about timing of onset, departure, snow totals, etc. at this stage.

I will say that if it really hits WMass, it could become an 8-16″ type snowfall. I’m not saying that’s how much we’re getting, but that’s the potential.

Also, if you have a weather app that’s showing you changing snowfall accumulations for Friday and Saturday, don’t pay any attention to it – it’s not a forecast, it’s just model output made to look like a forecast, so stop thinking that’s useful information.

It isn’t.

I will keep you updated the whole way with morning and evening reports today, tomorrow, Thursday, and then at least 3 reports Friday, and will be with you multiple times all the way through the storm, no matter its impact here.

Ok, that’s enough for now, stay tuned, have a great day, and I hope things go your way today!

P.S. I am running a clearance sale through end of this month for some leftover 2022 Weather Wall Calendars I have in stock, so if you’ve already sent payment I am shipping those today and tomorrow, but if you haven’t reached out and are interested, just shoot me a private message and we’ll be in touch about it today, thanks.