Good evening everybody, man is it cold out!! The cold just keeps getting colder as you get older, so if you’re one of the “young’ins” or in top condition, may your juicy metabolisms serve you well, because Winter has arrived, my friends.
The cloud deck is filled in, and snow is already approaching from southeastern NY and western CT, headed northeast.
SNOW ONSET
It’s still very dry at the surface throughout the WMass region. This may prevent snow from reaching the ground until about 8pm in westernmost CT and MA, but regardless, it’s going to start between 7-10pm (in other words, imminently), and with the super cold surface, it will accumulate quickly on road ways and all surfaces.
SNOWFALL RATES
As I mentioned, we should see snowfall rates of 1″ per hour to as high as 3″ per hour overnight (midnight to 6am is the heaviest snow for this entire storm, so if you love snow, you’ll have to stay up like I’m going to, at least until my body shuts me down).
WHERE DOES HEAVIEST SNOW FALL?
And as I also mentioned, a secondary deformation band will set up, and as of now, that looks to be over Berkshire County, the western hilltowns of Hampshire County, all of Franklin County and southeastern Bennington County into much of Windham County, and possibly even the Monadnock Region of southwest NH down into northernmost Worcester County along and north of Rt. 2.
After the initial snow thump for all of us, these are the areas that could get additional heavy snowfall, while the rest of us start to see light to moderate periods of snow around or after 6am until about noon or so, when the storm winds down.
WHERE DO LIGHTER AMOUNTS FALL?
I am particularly interested in seeing if subsidence takes place over central/eastern Hampden County, eastern Hampshire County into southwestern Worcester County.
Again, next to these heavy snow bands you get sinking air, which lightens up the snow shield, leading to *comparatively* lighter snow totals.
In addition, there’s a low chance for sleet to BRIEFLY mix in over northeast CT and possibly graze southeasternmost Hampden County (the CT border towns from Monson eastward to Sturbridge) and southwestern most Worcester County.
THE BOTTOM LINE
We’re likely going to see a widespread 10-18″ ” of snowfall with this storm.
Could those “subsident areas” I mentioned see more like 8-12″? Yes.
Could those “banding areas” I mentioned see more like 16-20″? Yes.
Could some folks even see 2 feet in those banded areas? Yes, especially on east-facing high terrain slopes/areas.
Either way, whatever your town actually sees, or your part of town (remember, snow doesn’t fall in town-sized shapes, it varies across town and across the region, because it’s amorphously organic, which is the title of my new book, I’m kidding!!), the plows are coming out, the driving is going to be lousy, the sounds of life are going to be muted and padded, our hills and dales are going to turn blindingly white, and we’ll all be digging out together tomorrow morning.
We will live through another New England snowstorm, and for that, I am most grateful to experience one more.
SNOW TOTALS
Again, 10-18″ for most of us in northern CT, WMass, CMass, SVT and SWNH, with higher amounts possible up to 16-20″ or so under that secondary snow band likely to affect northwest MA, SVT and possibly southwest NH down into northern Worcester County, with some more 8-12″ amounts in eastern Hampshire/Hampden, southwest Worcester and northeast CT if sleet mixes and/or we get some lighter snow bands in that area.
WIND
Northeast winds should gust 20-30mph overnight, but may reach up to 40mph at times, and if that is the case, blizzard conditions (not an actual blizzard) are possible, which is visibility under 1/4 mile in falling or blowing snow, with winds frequently gusting to 35mph.
OUTAGES
Some isolated outages in (I imagine) high terrain locations are possible if enough 40s blow out of the northeast in your ‘hood, and I pray that doesn’t happen to you, because it’s wicked cold, with lows tonight in the teens to near 20º, with wind chills down near 0º, and highs tomorrow in the low to mid 20s.
SHOVELING
Regarding shoveling, even though this will be a powdery snow (although maybe a bit more wet/heavier in northeast CT) it will be a lot, so take your time out there tomorrow morning.
Most of the snow falls overnight and into the break of dawn. However, we will still have accumulating snow tomorrow through the morning, so it’s up to you whether you want to do two passes or one big one. Either way, take it easy.
STAY TUNED
I will be updating again around 10pm or so, and so please visit the page again tonight (or at any time of year, really), as I will be here. I plan on staying up as long as I can to see it snow heavily, and may file reports in the pre-dawn hours, and will certainly be up early to update you in the morning, and will post a report hopefully between 6-7am, and will be with you through tomorrow morning and until the storm is done, with a wrap-up evening report as well.
PLEASE SEND REPORTS/PICS/VIDS/AMOUNTS
Please let me know when it starts snowing at your place tonight! Also send pics, vids, amounts, conditions at any time, under any of these posts so as a community we can all see the “ground truth” if what’s transpiring out there with this snowstorm.
SUPPORT
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Thanks very much for reading, thanks very much for supporting if you feel so moved, and let the cornucopia of falling dendritic crystalline structures begin!
Again, let me know what’s going in your neck of the woods tonight and tomorrow…