THIS PAGE REACHED 35,000 FOLLOWERS TODAY SO THANK YOU! THIS COMMITS ME MORE THAN EVER TO PROVIDE YOU WITH RELIABLE, SENSIBLE WEATHER INFO TO HELP YOU TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY… A LONG-DURATION 3-PHASE WINTER STORM WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS… I’M STILL LEAVING SNOW TOTALS ALONE FOR NOW…. SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING… CONCERN FOR PERIOD OF STEADY/HEAVIER SLEET BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN ICY LULL SUNDAY OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING… THEN SIGNS FOR AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERY LIGHT AND AT-TIMES MODERATE SNOW TAPERING OFF TUESDAY MORNING… (5:50pm Saturday)

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Good evening everybody, I though this would be a more comprehensive update, but instead, I will save that for tomorrow morning.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
–Mostly clear with high clouds at times
–Lows 10-15 degrees, super dry air
–Calm winds, ideal radiational cooling
–Sunday morning we see clouds fill in and lower
–Even though some virga will be falling overhead by late morning, most of us won’t see snow reach the ground until between about noon in northwest CT and the southern Berkshires to about 2pm or so in northern Worcester County and eastern portions of Cheshire County, NH
–Snow will fall moderately to heavy at times through sunset and the early evening
–2-5″ looks possible for many of us, maybe some 6″ amounts in the high terrain by about 8pm

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SNOW TOTALS BY TUESDAY MORNING
Let me remind you of the snow totals I posted last night and this morning. The ones I posted yesterday morning were very similar and only slightly less than these:

“I think south of the MassPike (except for Berkshire County and Litchfield County CT) we can expect 4-8″ with some icing Sunday night into Monday morning.

I think north of the MassPike (but including all of Berkshire County and Litchfield County CT) across CMass, WMass, the Taconics of eastern NY, southern VT and southwest NH, we will see 8-12″, with some isolated up-to 15″ amounts, with the best chance of any 12″+ amounts occuring in the western hilltowns, eastern Berkshires, and southernmost Green Mountains along/south of the Rt. 9 corridor in southern VT.”
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I’m going to continue stick with these amounts for now, as I am concerned about A) the potential for a slightly weaker secondary coastal low development on Monday, and B) a bit of a longer sleet/freezing rain/lull period starting between say 8pm-midnight tomorrow night from south to north (changing over from steady, accumulating snow) and then lasting into mid to late morning on Monday before we change back to snow as our secondary coastal low tracks east of our longitude and pulls colder air in aloft and at the surface.

Should this storm develop but not really deepen with any vigor, we could end up with showery, light snow bands, with occasional moderate bursts that don’t accumulate much during the day.

This regime could continue into the evening and overnight hours, with the potential for a heavier band of snow to work northwestward as the low reaches toward Cape Cod, before shipping out of here on Tuesday morning, by which time some light snow is still possible.

This is a complex storm system with multiple parts to it. I want to see final trends before I give a final read on what I think appears to be about to transpire, before just going into observation mode starting at noon tomorrow/Sunday.

I will post morning report as early as I can, so look for that in the morning.

Have a great evening, as it will be dry and cold, but DRY. And if you need one, or need some holiday gift ideas check out my calendars below, and my apparel sale below that, it all helps to support my work, thank you!
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WINTER STORM WARNINGS NOW HOISTED FOR SOUTHERN VT, BERKSHIRES, WESTERN HILLTOWNS, FRANKLIN COUNTY AND NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY FOR OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IN THOSE AREAS… WINTER STORM WATCHES CONTINUE EVERYWHERE ELSE… STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS OUR SECONDARY STORM HASN’T FORMED YET… SHORT REPORT THIS MORNING, COMPREHENSIVE UPDATE THIS EVENING, AND TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE STORM COMMENCES… (8:45am Saturday)

Good morning everybody, I’ve seen a lot of outlets increasing their snow totals from already high amounts yesterday, and I’m not willing to do that just yet.

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These setups when you have an original/parent low that washes out to the west of us over land (generally near PA, eastern Great Lakes, western NY region) as it transfers energy to a developing secondary coastal low more often than not hold surprises.

Out of the gate, let’s revisit my amounts from last night that I am going to stick with until my next update this evening (please check back with me tonight):
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SNOW TOTALS BY TUESDAY MORNING
I think south of the MassPike (except for Berkshire County and Litchfield County CT) we can expect 4-8″ with some icing Sunday night into Monday morning.

I think north of the MassPike (but including all of Berkshire County and Litchfield County CT) across CMass, WMass, the Taconics of eastern NY, southern VT and southwest NH, we will see 8-12″, with some isolated up-to 15″ amounts, with the best chance of any 12″+ amounts occuring in the western hilltowns, eastern Berkshires, and southernmost Green Mountains along/south of the Rt. 9 corridor in southern VT.
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While I’m leaving those alone until my next update, the potential definitely exists for those numbers to go UP…. IF both the warming and drying aloft in the second storm phase is rather limited, and ESPECIALLY if in the third storm phase the secondary low tracks favorably, slows favorably, and strengthens favorably on Monday, ringing out its deformation snow bands (i.e. the quasi-stationary heavy snow bands that form in the NW flanks of strong, mature winter cyclones) over the Berkshires, western hilltowns, Franklin County, northern Worcester and southwest NH.

Yes, this system could turn into a ripping 14-20″ long-duration dumper for those areas if they stay all snow, and if things develop properly – maybe even some 20″+ amounts.

But I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been burned in these situations, so I am cautious to bump up totals this morning just yet.

Alright, so that’s my current hesitation, but regardless of the nitpicky timing, precip type, and snow totals details, the bottom line is we have a major winter storm system with high amounts of impact coming from about Sunday noon into Tuesday morning.

The plows will be coming out, shoveling will be happening with great vim and vigor, neighbors will become reacquainted with their neighbors, and wouldn’t you know, New England will be New Englanding once again, and to that I say YES, YES, YES.

I know, I’m a nutcake, hence the moniker, but storms like this make me feel alive, and if they kill me a little bit each time.

So check back with me tonight for my next updates, but as Marc Maron says, let’s do the show!

SYNOPSIS
–High pressure crests New England today with mostly sunny skies developing, northwest breezes at times, and highs in the low to mid 30s
–Tonight, we are clear early, and high clouds move in late from the west
–Lows will crash into the low to mid teens, creating a perfect overrunning surface for our Phase 1 moisture from the parent storm to run up over and snow tomorrow afternoon
–It will be SUPER dry tomorrow morning, so at first, temps will likely hold steady as the morning as the air mass saturates
–Snow will probably hold off reaching the ground until late morning or even noon or so, then overspread the region west to east
–Generally 2-5″ is expected by after sunset in the early evening across the region as steady light to moderate snow falls all afternoon
–This is the high confidence part of the forecast
–Then some of us will change to sleet and freezing rain/drizzle later Sunday night while others to the north and west remain all snow, albeit lighter in intensity
–Some periods will see very little precip
–As the first surface low dies near the eastern Great Lakes, its upper level component continues to track east toward the coast, while the secondary surface low develops off the Jersey coastline in the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning (remember, the Ls and Hs you see on weather maps refer only to surface systems: there are mid and upper level highs and lows, too)
–As the upper low catches up to and “captures” the secondary surface low east of Jersey, low pressure should slow down, and maybe even stall, wobble, as it also develops and strengthens
–This is the third phase when colder air should come back through the WMass region, turning us back to snow at some point Monday morning or early Monday afternoon, with the heaviest snows being produced during this phase during the afternoon, evening and overnight, and tapering by early Tuesday morning

Remember that northerly and northeasterly winds will be gusting on Monday and Monday night over 30mph at times.

All in all, a serious multi-day and complex Nor’easter is on the way for the WMass region.

I love these storms, I live for these storms, and I lose hair during them, but I wouldn’t have it any other way.

I will update you tonight, tomorrow morning, and at points throughout the entire event.

It is my audience that keeps me focused, and my supporters that truly allow me to keep this work as my life’s priority, so I thank you all very much! Stay tuned!

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