WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION… SNOW ARRIVES BETWEEN 1-3PM THIS AFTERNOON, FALLING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, CHANGING TO SLEET SOUTH OF THE PIKE BETWEEN 7-10PM MOST LIKELY… SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, FREEZING DRIZZLE FALL OVERNIGHT, NUDGING NORTH TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE PIKE AND ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR… PRECIP LULLS/LIGHTENS BY AND LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OF NJ COAST AND TRACKS EAST… WE CHANGE BACK TO LIGHT/INTERMITTENT SNOW BY MONDAY LATE AM/EARLY PM… THEN WE WATCH TO SEE IF WE GET A FINAL SET OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW BANDS MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OR IT FIZZLES OVER US… SNOW ENDS TUESDAY MORNING…EXTRA 2020 CALENDARS AVAILABLE, DHTWN SHIRT SALE ENDS TONIGHT… (9:05AM SUNDAY)
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Good morning everybody, I’ve been putting a lot of though into this report, which will be mainly centered around snow totals and timing.
Lows got down into the teens overnight, and it’s very dry out. Highs will only reach the 26-32 degree range, and lows will pretty much hold steady.
STORM PHASE 1
By now and through my previous reports over the past several days (which you can scroll below, find and read), you know we have an upper low pushing east into OH, PA and NY today, which is spreading eastward a band of accumulating, warm advection snowfall (i.e. the initial band of precip that pushes into, up and over cold dense surface air, causing the classic front-end thump of light to moderate accumulations).
STORM PHASE 2
We know that then warmer air and ultimately drier air at the mid levels will work north (the exact extent to which is unknown but is believe to be somewhere between the latitude of the MassPike and say the Rt. 2 corridor). This will bring a change to sleet, freezing rain/drizzle, and even lulls in the action at times from later tonight through Monday morning or so.
STORM PHASE 3
We know that the secondary low will redevelop off the NJ coast and track east-northeast toward Nantucket Island, and slow down as it does so, and that our upper low will interact it with in some way, which will be the key to whether we see the amounts I’m thinking we’ll see vs. possibly higher amounts.
STORM WINDS
We also know that we can expect east to northeast winds tonight and early tomorrow, shifting to the north, which should gust 20-35mph at times during our long-duration storm system, which begins this afternoon and ends Tuesday morning.
REFINED SNOW TOTALS BY TUESDAY AM
I’ve pretty much kept my thinking the same throughout over the past few days on totals that begin this afternoon and end Tuesday morning. However, I have tried to refine things a bit more for you by using general zones of my coverage area, so please read below, and please know the county where you live and your local major routes (Route 2, I-90, in this case).
***SOUTH AND EAST ZONE***
I think south of the MassPike (except for Berkshire County and Litchfield County CT) we can expect 4-8″ with some sleet and freezing rain and/or a lull in precip tonight into the first half of Monday when precip is likely to be showery, spotty, intermittent, and lighter.
The Highest amounts of that range should be seen in central/eastern Hampden County and southern Worcester County, while the lower to middle range in north-central and northeast CT.
***MID/LOWER VALLEY ZONES***
(Connecticut & Housatonic Rivers)
I think north of the MassPike and south of the Rt. 2 corridor in WMass (Excluding the western hilltowns) and CMass as well as Litchfield County in northwest CT and the southern Berkshires from about Pittsfield south will see in the 8-12″ range with a few outlier amounts just below or just above those end range totals (towns like Otis might see 13″ whereas southern Litchfield might see 7″, for example).
***NORTH AND WEST ZONE (HIGH TERRAIN)***
I think that the northern half of Litchfield County, Berkshire County, the western hilltowns, the parts of Franklin and northern Worcester Counties that are north of Rt. 2, southern VT and southwest NH, as well as most of the Taconics in eastern NY should see 10-16″ of snow where little if any mixing takes place, and where orographic processes (i.e. where mountains cause more snow to fall due to forcing air to rise by their mere presence). A few foot and half totals are possible there, too.
BUST POTENTIAL
In closing, I believe that there could be a bust to higher amounts of snow.
Any icing, lulls, and lighter snows Monday morning into part of Monday afternoon has the potential to give way to moderate to heavy snow by late Monday afternoon into Monday night and very early Tuesday morning.
This will all hinge on how our upper low interacts with the surface low that will be tracking south of the region, and how much lift will be generated.
The areas that could bust higher toward more of a 15-25″ snowfall would be the northern half of Berkshire County, the central/northern Taconics, SVT, and the western hilltowns of WMass.
If this heavy snow banding develops (which I’m questioning currently), then that would of course allows us to see the higher end of ranges I posted above (which would mean a general 8-16″ snowfall across the entire region).
I don’t believe that is going to transpire, but there’s a low chance that it could.
While we’re here, I want to welcome all the new followers! Thanks for giving my page a chance, and I hope my daily reporting info and mid-storm coverage of every storm all year long is helpful to you and yours (and please note that my ALL CAPS headlines are not me yelling at you, they are my only headline-formatting option).
I also will say to the new folks that I do sell some merch and ask for support at times during the year (like my 2020 weather calendars on sale now, my 2019 Shirt/Merch Sale which ends tonight, and my annual winter support drive that launches in Feb), so if that bugs you at any point, you’re free to take off if that doesn’t work for you, no worries. I work hard here, and finally feel ok about asking for help, given that I work hard at this all year round.
To that end please check out my calendar and merch offers at the bottom of this post, and stay tuned for later afternoon update at the snow begins to fly.
I will, of course, be updating you at periods all throughout this bout of wintry inclement weather moving into the region this afternoon and lasting through Tuesday morning.
Safe travels to all, and stay warm!!! Thank you, Dave
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