Good morning folks, I just want to lay in some of the changes in thinking that developed from data observed overnight.
The main story here is that whenever you have a southern stream system and an upper level northern stream system each rounding the bend and attempting to coalesce into one rapidly developing storm on the east side of a split flow in the jet stream, there is a lot of uncertainty that is produced.
TOUGH TO GET BIG SNOW IN WMASS IN THIS SETUP
–We don’t have a lot of cold air in place ahead of time
–There’s not a lot of cold air to be tapped, with no Arctic high pressure moving into position north of Montreal
–In order to get substantial snow in WMass from a storm that is only really starting to wind up as it hits the coast, you need RAPID cyclogenesis (i.e storm development)
–You also need a slower storm track closer to the coastline to allow the precip shield to become heavy enough to pull down colder air to the surface via dynamic cooling
Based on what I’m seeing, it appears more likely than not that the storm will track east-northeast for a while and pass about 50 miles south of Nantucket, and around that time, THEN turn northeast into the Gulf of Maine to crush Maine and New Brunswick, Canada with over a foot of snow in spots.
If this track holds true, even with rapid development from the phasing southern and northern stream systems, I believe we’ll see a light to moderate snowfall at best in WMass, northwest CT and even southern VT, with the heaviest snows in northeast CT, Worcester County and possibly nicking both eastern Cheshire County and eastern Hampden County.
I will produce a comprehensive report early this evening, but for now here’s the details below.
SUMMARY
–Highs today in the mid to upper 40s with a few light rain showers possible early this morning, maybe mixing with snow in SVT, little to no impact
–Showers of rain start to spread into northern CT, and areas south of the Pike after sunset, and that SLOWLY spreads north into southern portions of WMass overnight
–Saturday is stormy and inclement, good day to be inside and make soup or read.
–Rain Saturday morning mixes with and changes to snow in the Berkshires, western hills, SVT before noon, and this should also occur in the high terrain of eastern Franklin County, eastern Hampden and Worcester County down into northeast CT
–By afternoon, most of us should be snowing and accumulating snow as the storm winds up to our south, tracking east-northeast
–A heavy band of snow is likely to push into Worcester County, northeast CT and possibly easternmost Hampden Cty in MA and Cheshire County in SW.NH (though it may stay southeast of Cheshire)
–This could produce 1-2″ snowfall rates per hour in the afternoon before this thing winds down everywhere after sunset
–1-3″ looks to be reasonable for the Pioneer Valley from Brattleboro down through Greenfield, Northampton, Springfield and Hartford
–2-5″ looks to be reasonable for the Berkshires, western hilltowns, southern VT, Litchfield Hills of NW.CT and eastern Franklin County into southwest NH
–4-8″, with some 10″ amounts for Worcester County, northeast CT and eastern Hampden County
Ok that does it for now, the only other thing ot mention is gusty northwest winds Saturday evening and night could blow 30-40mph hour as colder air comes in behind the storm, so it will be a wintry Saturday night ahead even if your area only has a light amount of snow on the ground.
Thanks for reading, stay tuned for this evening’s update, and if my reports are helpful to you in any way, please consider getting some of my comfy cold weather clothing items at my online Bonfire store, sale ends THIS Sunday (link below)
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