A BRIEFLY BALMY AFTERNOON IS ON THE WAY, BUT FIRST WE LIFT ANY PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING, AS SHOWERS MOVE IN BETWEEN 9AM-1PM ROUGHLY… PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP, SOME OF US CREST 60º, AND SW WINDS GUST TO 40MPH OR SO… MORE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, BLUSTERY INTO TUESDAY MORNING… CALM MID WEEK, THEN WE WATCH TWO STORM CHANCES THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND… 8:25AM SUNDAY…
Good morning everybody, I hope you didn’t snore yourself awake, it happens to the best of us! *raises hand*
As for our weather today, we still were seeing patches of dense fog in the Pioneer Valley at Springfield and Hartford at 8am, and also at Orange, MA where visibility was down to a quarter mile, which is the official definition that characterizes “dense fog” (1/4 mile or less).
We have showers working quickly from west to east ahead of a warm frontal boundary down over Pennsylvania which will move northeast with time.
I only see a weak “cold air damming” signature southwest into Maine, but then it dissolves further toward southern New England, so even though this front is kinked SW like that (see attached chaht), it looks like said front and milder air will run right through the WMass region (though that shape always gives me a little pause, as cold/cool air can be tough to scour out of the CT River Valley floor).
Anyway, showers move in between 9am-1pm roughly, and then exit as fast as they entered with a punch of dry air sweeping those little buggers right on out of here, VAMOOSE!
This should allow for some sunny breaks to develop, which in turn will allow for a 2-4 hour period of very mild temps, when highs are expected to spike into the mid 50s to mid 60s.
This will then steepen the lower level lapse rates (i.e. the difference between and resulting gradient of air temperatures from surface to sky) which should allow low-mid level winds to reach the surface, and gust 25-45mph at times out of the southwest.
A brief balmy blast looks to be ours!
It’ll be fleeting though, but if all goes according to plan, there should be a brief window to take a mid or late afternoon walk after the rain is through, but just watch for some of those gusts, especially in the high elevations where they are like to be strongest (lower range of gusts in the valley, higher range at elevation).
For tonight, a cold front moves through between 8-10pm with a few showers possible, with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s under partly cloudy skies.
For Monday, more rain is on the way, but the morning should feature dry conditions with increasing cloudiness.
Our second system will track well northwest of us, and with continued southwest flow, high temps will rise into the low to mid 50s.
This storm should produce two batches of showers: the first batch is more “pre-frontal” in nature, meaning more scattered to widely scattered shower coverage, and mainly north of the Pike for the afternoon.
The second batch is more “frontal” in nature, meaning showers should be more widespread and heavier by evening and through the midnight hour, before breaking up and ending during Tuesday’s pre-dawn hours, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s as another cold front comes through the region.
A thunderstorm is also possible before the front moves through.
During the circum-midnight hours is where areas in SVT may see a change to snow showers, as well some upslope snow showers behind the cold front into Tuesday morning as northwest winds pick and gust over 30mph.
Tuesday looks seasonably cold with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s under mostly sunny skies as high pressure moves in behind the front – a beautiful day on tap, though gusty during its first half.
Tuesday night lows will drop into the low to mid 20s with lighter wind.
For Wednesday, clouds start to build but it still looks dry with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the 20s, dry weather continues.
Then by Thursday, while we will likely have another seasonably cool and fair day, there will likely be a coastal storm that bears watching, because if it lifts north into the region, wet snow might be possible, so stay tuned for updates on that piece.
Then by the weekend we will watching another storm system that at the moment looks like a rain producer, but some guidance is showing a snowy solution, so now we just wait and monitor and I will keep you updated as we get closer.
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