MAJOR 7PM ALERT: FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE UP FOR NORTHWEST CT IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS… FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE… TORNADO WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR SOUTHERN CT… VERY HEAVY, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARRIVES BETWEEN 8PM-4AM… 1-2″ PER HOUR POSSIBLE… MAJOR FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PARTS OF WMASS, CMASS AND ALL OF CT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE… UP TO 8″ POSSIBLE… THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION…
Good evening everybody, the rainfall we are about to endure overnight will be torrential at times, and will cause flash flooding and some road washouts.
Wind by tomorrow morning will be less of an impact, but some isolated outages will occur to due to rain-soaked ground giving up tree root systems as they topple on to some power lines due to up to 40mph wind gusts.
Major flooding won’t happen in every town, obviously.
However, and I need you to hear this…… this has the potential to be life threatening and highly impactful, so please stay tuned to your local authorities such as the appropriate town/city offices, radio and news outlets, and this page for updates.
Flash Flood Warnings have already been hoisted across northwest CT and points west into southeast NY as 1-2″ of rain have fallen there, and an additional 2-4″ are expected overnight. More Flash Flood Warnings will be posted overnight.
HEAVY RAIN SETUP
This a powerful, heavy rainfall producing setup, with a mid-level warm front pushing north into anomalously-tropical amounts of moisture over New England which contains within it a deep warm layer that historically produces super heavy rainfall, aided by a jet stream nearby that is causing air to rise rapidly, set within the context of high pressure northwest of us and low pressure south us, both causing converging air that is forced to rise skyward, producing even more heavy rain.
This is a flood maker if I ever saw one.
Again, while everyone will not see flash flooding tonight or even street flooding, I believe many will, AND I AM HOPE I AM WRONG about that, but I don’t like the look of this storm system.
As it stands, the Housatonic River from Falls Village down to Gaylordsville, CT in western Litchfield County will achieve minor to moderate flooding by tomorrow morning, which will likely be handled by NWS-issued Flood Warnings at a later time, which is *different* than the Flash Flood Warnings that will be posted in spots later on tonight.
WHAT-ABOUT-MY-HOUSE QUESTIONS
Folks, I honestly try hard to answer as many of these as I can, but I just can’t tonight – those are on hold for the evening. I don’t know exactly where the heaviest rains will lay down (though I think somewhere south of the Pike will be the jackpot, probably southern halves of northern CT counties into parts of southern CT), and I won’t know where exactly one town will flood, and where another won’t, so if you get crickets in response to such questions, please accept my apologies, I will be too busy monitoring conditions and trying to prepare updates later.
SUPER CELL IN WESTERN NJ
This storm highlighted in the attached infrared satellite shot dropped a destructive, large tornado in eastern PA near Warrington earlier, and that cell is going to be merging with the already heavy regional rainfall developing, which will enhance rain totals in some places.
Because of this supercell, Tornado Watches have been hoisted for southern CT, and we can’t rule a weaker EF-0 or EF-1 tornado or two out in north-central or even northeast CT, or even southeastern portions of WMass east of I-91 in Hampden County into southern Worcester County, down through southeast MA overnight.
THIS STORM MIGHT OVERPERFORM
Some pieces of guidance are outputting 6-10″ of rainfall across CT! This would be horrible, and while I don’t know that we’ll see that much, I’m still thinking we at least see 2-5″ across the entire WMass, CMass, and northern CT region, with 1-3″ (maybe 4″?) north of the Rt. 2 corridor into SVT and SWNH, and some jackpot areas along/south of the Pike hitting 5-8″ of rainfall.
In fact, a Flash Flood Emergency has been issued in eastern PA, and this heavy rainfall still has to move northeast through the WMass region.
The trend has been increasing for heavier amounts of rain, so this thing could overperform overnight folks, it’s not something to take lightly, I hope I am impressing this upon you.
WE IMPROVE TOMORROW, 12 HOURS TO GO
Lows drop into the mid to upper 50s overnight, and the rain is out of here by early to mid morning with improving conditions in the afternoon.
The morning does look breezy/windy, with northeast, to north, to northwest gusts (a “backing” wind) up to 20-40mph possible, higher in southeast MA. Some isolated outages will be possible.
Ida sure is doing plenty of damage on its way out of the building, and hopefully the major flooding will some how not come to pass, but that potential is real, and it’s upon us, so let your people know, and I will update later this evening after I get some dinner in me.
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ALERT: MAJOR FLOODING EVENT POSSIBLE… FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE, HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WMASS AND NORTHERN CT AND THE ADJACENT TACONICS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON… 1-2″ PER HOUR POSSIBLE… LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO IN EASTERN CT, RI AND SOUTHEAST MA… 1:40pm Wed…
Good afternoon everybody, I wanted to provide an update to you as I am seeing words from the NWS such as “deadly” and “damaging” regarding the flooding potential tonight across southern New England, and you don’t see that very often.
I was already concerned, but am even more so now, and am watching a large area of heavy rainfall developing over PA, MD and the Mid-Atlantic lifting northeast toward New England.
Currently, rain has overspread the region, and will continue to become heavier as a mid-level warm front lifts northeast out of the Mid-Atlantic and toward southern New England this afternoon, which will focus an area of rising air and heavier rains.
Instability will also be increasing aiding in this heavy rain production. In addition, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms has been moved northward to include isolated severe storm potential overnight in northeast CT and southern CMass.
This is a potentially very serious situation developing and I would encourage you to let your area friends and family know about this potential.
Rain increases in intensity this afternoon and early evening, and then the heaviest rain, which may fall in a complete deluge, arrives tonight between 8pm and 4am, with 1-2″ per hour rainfall rates, with some thunderstorms embedded south of the Pike.
A low risk of tornadoes is possible the further south and east you go away from western MA.
Winds are still expected to gust to 20-40mph out of the northeast tonight, and then back out of the north and northwest by tomorrow morning. With a soaked ground, some outages are likely to occur.
Road washouts are still possible tonight, and 2-5″ is still expected along and south of the MA/VT-NH state line, with 5-7″ possible somewhere in that large area, and 1-3″ further north in SVT and SWNH, though some 3″+ amounts are possible in the highest terrain up that way, like the southern Greens.
I will update you on this storm and flooding potential by late afternoon or early evening, stay safe and do not drive through flooded road ways, should you encounter any.
Thank you all…
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7:10A-WED: FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS… FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE EXPANDED INTO OUR ENTIRE REGION, NOW INCLUDING SVT AND SWNH… SHOWERS ARRIVE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE PIKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING, THEN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE WMASS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON… TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS… WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHEST 20-40MPH EXPECTED… ROAD WASHOUTS POSSIBLE IN HARDEST HIT AREAS… OVER 6″ MAY FALL IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT GENERALLY 2-5″ REGION-WIDE…
Good morning everybody, I’m going to rip into double-dash mode today after a message from our wonderful sponsor, Tandem Bagel Co., as there’s a lot of info to get to you. I will be updating during the day and tonight as this relatively short-duration but high impact storm runs through the region. That’s the saving grace – it’s speed. It will hit and leave, instead of linger. If it were the latter, we’d be dealing with a MAJOR flooding event, region-wide. As it stands, this storm looks like it will produce moderate to major flooding in our region where the heaviest rain bands are generated. If you live in flood prone areas, you must prepare, especially if you live south of the Rt. 2 corridor.
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SYNOPSIS
–Ida’s remnant low is centered over West Virginia this morning
–The storm is forecast to track through NYC metro area
–It’s already raining in parts of western CT at 7am
–Showers will spread northeast into northern CT and WMass during the morning
–Rain will become steadier in the afternoon, and heavy at times in bursts
–Highs will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s
–In a winter type setup, an upper level warm front will lift north into the region, and combine with a part of the jet stream to produce intense lift (i.e. rising air)
–This intensely rising air with very strong vertical velocity will combine anomalous moisture present for the first day of Meteorological Autumn (Happy September?) to produce absolutely torrential rainfall at times tonight and especially between about 9pm to 5am
–This is when the greatest chance for flash flooding will be
–Some thunderstorms embedded are possible, but only along the south coast are we concerned for potential tornadoes and stronger storms
–Northeast winds will kick up and gust 20-40mph, though strongest wind should remain aloft. Still, some isolated outages are possible
–Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 50s
–Essentially, with higher pressure to our northwest and Ida tracking along the south coast or even into southern CT and southeast MA, the intense tropical moisture overhead is going to get rung out over our region, and flash flooding WILL occur in spots, we just don’t know exactly where
–While heaviest rainfall of over 5″ in spots is expected along and south of the MA pike, that area may bob/jog north more into WMass/CMass
–Generally, 2-5″ is expected, with outlier 5-7″ amounts possible, and generally 1-3″ along and north of the Rt. 2 corridor, but that is not set in stone
–Rain quits Thursday morning, likely fairly early, and a partly sunny day will result, with some back-side northwesterly winds gusting to 25mph as the storm pulls away and highs Thursday in the upper 60s to low 70s
–TASTE OF FALL Thursday night, with lows in the low to mid 50s
–Friday and Saturday are a pair of early Autumnal winners, highs 70-75, lows 50-55, dry, sunny, clear, nice
–Some showers possible Sunday into early next week, but highs in the 70s, and not a washout expected
Stay tuned for updates on today and especially tonight’s expected flash flooding setup, and remember to TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN if you come up to a flood road way.
I am most concerned for washout potential in the southeast Berkshires and western Hampden and western Hampshire Counties, down into the Litchfields and high terrain of northwest CT.
More later, stay tuned…