THE SOAKENING RETURNS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT… POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE SUB-REGION OF THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELD COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS POINTS SOUTH AND WEST FROM THERE… FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE REGION-WIDE SOUTH OF THE MA/-VT-NH BORDER… FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS LIKELY IN SPOTS TONIGHT WITH SOAKED SOILS… 1-4″ OF RAIN POSSIBLE BY MONDAY… SUNDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MONDAY… MORE SUNSHINE NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL SHOWERY/STORMY AT TIMES… LATE WEEK IS OUR HOPE FOR PATTERN SHIFT… 7:25AM SAT…

Good morning everybody, I’ve set up a Discussion below followed by a quick Nutshell section, so if you want the deets or the gist, go on and get it, I say.

INTRO
We’re waking up to continued humid conditions with partly to mostly cloud skies. We’ll get some sunshine here and there this morning mixed in with some scattered showers currently tracking east-northeast thorugh the region.

If we’re lucky, some sunny breaks will perhaps last into early afternoon but the trend is not our friend, and will lead to increasing clouds, with some occasional showers.

DISCUSSION
We have a front draped zonally across southern New England. This front will drift a bit today, but will generally stick around and serve to guide low pressure areas to track east along it.

This frontal feature will combine with an approaching mid-level jet streak to produce abundant atmospheric lift, resulting first in scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and downpours by mid to late afternoon into the early evening, but then transforming into a soaking, heavy rainfall for many of us overnight.

Highs today will reach the mid 70s to low 80s, and dewpoints will be in the 60s to low 70s, which will provide plenty of moisture to the surface atmosphere. This plus some sunny breaks will translate into an unstable surface, which will help generate storms between 4-7pm from southwest to northeast, generally speaking.

Damaging localized wind gusts, torrential rain with street flooding risks, frequent lightning, and even a chance for an isolated tornado are the potential impacts by this evening.

The tornado risk is LOW, but the flash flooding risk is moderately high, and both coincide generally in the southwestern part of MA (southern/central Berkshires into the western hilltowns of Hampden and Hampshire Counties), Litchfield County CT, and the central and southern Taconics in eastern Columbia and Dutchess Counties in NY (the Route 22 corridor).

NUTSHELL
So in a nutshell, scattered showers with sunny breaks this morning into mid afternoon turns to overcast with scattered strong to severe storms with severe impacts possible in spots, which turns to heavy soaking rain and flash flooding concerns overnight, lasting into early Sunday morning with lows in the mid to upper 60s with patchy fog late.

There is a chance if the front draped over our region bobs north enough, that northern CT west into the southern/central Taconics could rise WELL into the 80s, and if that happens, it would increase the severe weather potential there, where the SPC has raised the chance for severe storms this later afternoon.

SUNDAY
After The Soakening exits to the east after dropping 1″ to as much as 4″ of rainfall over the region, we get into a cooler, calmer zone for Sunday, but atmospheric inclemency will continue to rule the roost.

This is due to an upper low over the Midwest spinning its way east toward NY and PA, and providing a more diffuse, general lift over the region.

What this means is that highs will only be in the low to mid 70s, and we can expect overcast skies, and periods of showers or a thunderstorm at times, especially in the afternoon.

The coverage of this activity will be more scattered compared to this evening and tonight. Showers will be possible Sunday night as well with lows in the low to mid 60s.

CAVEAT
There is a potential Sunday afternoon and evening’s activity becomes heavier and more pronounced, so I will update you on this potential tonight and tomorrow.

NEXT WEEK
The Monday through Wednesday period features showers at times, with maybe a thunderstorm, but the upper low starts to loosen its grip on the WMass region Monday, with some remnant scattered showers at times, and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday seems like the first half of the week pick with mostly sunny skies, and a few showers or storms in the afternoon after the heating of the day gets the air rising. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s, and lows will dip into the low to mid 60s with a few showers at night.

Wednesday should feature an incoming cold front with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. Skies should be partly sunny with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s with showers at night, clearing late.

Thursday looks like the overall pick of the week (just like this past week) with mostly sunny skies, drier conditions, and highs in the 75-80º range with lows near 60º.

Friday looks sunny at times, but a few showers are possible late. Next weekend the hope is that the ridge which has been plaguing the western U.S. with horrible heat will drift and re-establish itself over the central U.S., which would drive our streamflows out of Canada with drier northwesterly flow, which would mean a temporary vanquishing of the high humidity we have been experiencing.

I will keep you updated on that score, and all the other scores, and we’ll keep score, and I’ll write scores more posts, so if you like to read about the weather, even if you hate it, SCORE!

Have a great day!