Good morning everybody, our #GrinchStorm2020 is on the way, so we’ll have to Grin(ch) and bear it, get it? See what I did there? I’ll be here all week, try the chicken parm special, tip your bartender, check out my matinee at 2pm, and if you’re vegetarian, the eggplant parm is out of this world.
The bottom line is we have a high impact Christmas Eve/Day storm on the way, with timing and impacts that couldn’t be worse for folks who are celebrating. Wind Advisories, High Wind Warnings, and Flood Watches are all in effect for the entire region.
TODAY
–We should see temps slowly rise through the 40s and into the 50s by this evening, along with a rise in dewpoints into the 50s
–Scattered light showers arrive by mid to late afternoon, and pick up in intensity toward midnight
–Southerly to southeasterly gusts blow over 20mph starting this afternoon, and gust up to 40mph later in the night
FOG/VISIBILITY
–Widespread dense fog will form this evening and during the first part of the night as much milder air, rainfall, and higher dewpoint temps combine to evaporate the snow pack overnight
–This will cause visibilities to drop below 1/4 mile, and I expect the NWS will issue Dense Fog Advisories tonight for the region
–If you are traveling tonight, give yourself extra time due to dense fog
FLOODING/RAINFALL
–While much of the pre-midnight hours should feature mainly scattered light to moderate showers, intensity and number of showers will pick up toward and certainly after midnight as the squall line begins its approach for Christmas morning
–Rain will fall heavily at times during the later pre-dawn hours and into Christmas morning
–Thunderstorms are possible, and this convection may help to bring down the strongest wind gusts
–The snow pack has 1-3″ of water tied up in it, and 1.5-4″ of rain are expected to fall from this storm system
–This will combine to produce street flooding, basement flooding for those prone to that sort of situation, and river flooding later on Christmas Day, with moderate flooding expected along the CT River in spots
–Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings are expected in spots tomorrow
–Due to southeasterly wind, I am particularly concerned for heavy rain and flooding over the eastern slopes of the Berkshires into the western hilltowns, as well as the northern Litchfield Hills
WIND/DAMAGE/OUTAGES
–Southeast VT, southwest NH, Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties as well as northern Worcester County are expected to see a little less wind intensity due to cooler temps at surface with wind gusts 40-55mph possible
–Berkshires, Taconics, Litchfields, and especially northern CT, southern CMass and EMass and RI are expected to get brunt of wind intensity, with wind gusts 50-70mph possible
–More likely than not, if your temperature crests the 60º mark during the later pre-dawn hours into the early daylight hours of Christmas morning and coincides with when the heavy squall/convection line of most intense downpours and potential thunderstorms comes through, strong wind gusts of 60mph or more may visit your ‘hood, and could knock out power
–Despite more isolated power outages the further north you go in our region, most of us in WMass, CMass, northern CT and eastern NY are expected to have scattered to possibly widespread power outages, with pockets of tree and property damage
–Secure loose outdoor objects, charge your devices, get gas for the car and generator, and prepare to endure XMas Day without power.
–Then, if you keep your power, you’ve got good preparation planning under your belt, and life will be easier than you thought it would be
–Of course, not everybody is going to lose power, but many likely will, especially south of the Pike and east of I-91
STORM’S EXIT
The worst of the wind and heavy rain should be through much of the region from west to east by late morning to early afternoon.
Highs will reach the upper 50s to low 60s tomorrow, and then start to fall through the 50s and 40s tomorrow afternoon.
As lows wind up in the low to mid 20s, some lake effect snow showers will be possible in the Berkshires, western hilltowns, Litchfields, Taconics, and southern Greens on Christmas night as colder air spills in behind the cold frontal passage responsible for focusing all this rain and wind into our region.
The weekend looks mostly sunny, fair and cold, with some more rain/snow showers by Monday/Tuesday possible. Fair weather for much of the rest of next week, with yet another storm possible New Year’s Eve.
2020 is going out with a bang. Good riddance.
Have a great day, and I will update again this early evening, Dave