Good evening everybody, I was hoping to report earlier but have been bouncing around on Twitter, sometimes I wish I could clone myself!
I want to start by saying how much I appreciate your readership, support, and your trust that some of you have put into my reporting over the past almost decade #Gulp.
I don’t take it lightly at all. I do make mistakes, I do always try to admit them, and I made more today… welcome to Life on Earth.
I LEARNED A LOT TODAY
What I learned today is that I am going to generally tend to underplay snow events for elevations in our region under 1000 feet when the following factors are at play (either all or some):
A) there is no antecedent cold air mass
B) there is no Arctic air ready to be tapped and drained into our region’s surface in a widespread manner
C) we have a setup where the storm is literally forming OVER our region
D) said storm needs to dynamically cool the surface by dragging cold air via heavy precip from a few miles up down to the surface, in order to produce snow.
I don’t believe I overplayed this storm, but the fact is, in these situations, they become all-or-nothing events, and I’m starting to catch the pattern now.
They tend to deal with these marginal temp situations (marginal meaning temps are above yet close to freezing, but not squarely sub-freezing), and they tend to involve heavy wet snow in terms of snowflake consistency.
You remember some in the past.
“The weather folks said it wasn’t going to be much, but I got 8 inches!”
THOSE events.
Or, the opposite occurs.
Now, I didn’t call for 8″ in the valleys (Connecticut and Housatonic), I called for 1-3″ and said this storm could underperform from there in the valleys, which it did, except for folks east and south from Amherst in eastern Hampshire down into eastern Hampden and Worcester County (and of course southwestern Worcester County, as well as northern areas of CMass got 6-10″ with some higher amounts).
I also called for 4-8″ in extreme eastern Franklin County and Hampshire County and some folks like Shutesbury and other areas hit or even exceeded those amounts, while some got very little at the lower elevations.
I called for 8-14″ in eastern Hampshire and Worcester County, and that was true for some whereas other areas of CMass got more like 5-8″.
I also said that west of the CT River folks in the hills and high terrain could see 2-5″, and while that happened for some, it didn’t for others.
For example, I have had reports of no snow in Charlemont over 1200 feet. No snow in Shelburne. No snow in Conway.
This part was very surprising, but to take a minute or two to wrap this up and move on to the evening report (which is below), the bottom line is that I am fully aware of these types of situations now, and while I don’t think I bombed too badly (though I certainly did for some areas), what this has done that is good going forward, is that it has given me clarity about HOW I need to communicate these types of winter events going forward.
Anyway, I just wanted to get that off my chest.
For folks who have followed me for years, this post is NOT like my past/annual meltdowns, as I’m largely past those, I believe, but I do want to be transparent with you from time to time.
And I also get that I’m not for everybody.
I get it.
There’s plenty of apps or other outlets out there if I’m not floating your boat.
The bottom line is that my intentions are good, I put a lot of time into this, I try to learn, I try to do a good job, I try to answer as many questions as I can, and sometimes it doesn’t work out.
Anyways, I appreciate you, and I thank you for your support, encouragement, and criticisms.
MOVING ON
For the rest of the night, our snow band that looked like it was going to hang over the eastern half of Worcester County into the evening has collapsed south and east.
We are left with light rain and snow across the region, which is elevation dependent.
Not much additional accumulation is expected, except for some coatings across northwest CT and maybe the northern Berkshires into the northwest hills up into SVT mountains.
As our storm crosses our latitude, northwest winds now gusting 15-30mph should increase to 20-40mph tonight.
BLACK ICE AND PATCHY FOG
Lows will drop into the mid 20s tonight, and while some of the wind will help to dry surfaces, we have areas that got a lot of rain today and are very wet still, as well areas especially east of I-91 that are snow and slush covered, and while those will likely be treated and plowed, some icy areas will develop (secondary and tertiary roads, I’m looking at you), so watch out for that if you are out late or early tomorrow morning. Some patchy fog is possible too.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND
Sunday will be cold, blustery and wintry, with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s from high terrain to low and northwest winds will gust over 30mph at times under mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds back in.
Lows will crash into the upper teens to low 20s, so what little snow melt happens will likely refreeze to produce more black ice tomorrow night.
We have a fair weather week ahead with plenty of high pressure, but it will be cold through Wednesday with highs in the 30s, and then a little milder Thursday and Friday with highs in the 40s.
The next chance of rain or snow is next weekend, as a developing storm will likely pass out to sea Tuesday to our south.
I’d love to see your snow total reports below by town, and if you just got rain, post the goose eggs, if you would to help paint a clear regional picture of what fell or didn’t fall today. I’d also love to know if you are still seeing any light/moderate precip and what type it is, and your elevation if you know it.
Thanks again, everybody, and if my work IS helpful to you and you want to support it, even though my 2021 weather calendar is sold out, you can donate any amount at the link below via PayPal, Credit/Debit, Venmo, or via Check, or you can get some warm winter long sleeves from my Bonfire store (that sale closes tomorrow night)…. secure links are below, and I thank you, Dave
SUPPORT DHTWN’S WORK
https://westernmassweather.com/support-network/
GET DHTWN SWAG/APPAREL
https://www.bonfire.com/dhtwn-2020-holidays/