Good afternoon/evening everybody, in looking at latest observations, data and developments, our warm frontal snowy spell tonight is rapidly dwindling down to very little (not that it was a big deal before).
We’ve got a few flurries or snow showers in the Berkshires, but based on the attached graphics, we can see that the best atmospheric lift (which generates precipitation) is really to the southwest of us (see the reddish colors in the FGEN map).
In addition, the air is very dry over the WMass region, which will tend to evaporate snow as it tries to push east.
Some coatings are possible in the Berkshires (especially southern Berkshires), central and southern Taconics and Litchfield County, CT.
Otherwise, a few snow showers or flurries are possible tonight with lows in the upper 20s with mostly cloudy skies.
If you want more detail for the week ahead, please scroll below (or click the name of my page, and THEN scroll down) to find my morning post.
Otherwise, the roughed-in weekly out look is milder Monday with more sunshine, cloudier Tuesday and mild with a few showers, snow to ice Wednesday night into Thursday, rain Thursday night into Friday, fair on Saturday, with more snow/rain possible a week from today.
Phew! Hello, run-on sentence!!
Ok folks, if you’re reading this, you lived another day. Even if it wasn’t that great a day for you, I hope that at least one good thing happened to you, whether it was a thought, a chuckle, an epiphany, a nice meal, a snuggle, a breakthrough for your kid, a nice walk with your dog, a purr session with your kitty.
Have a great night!
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[LIGHT SNOW THIS AM & TONIGHT] FOR SOME OF US… COATING TO 2″ IN THE BERKSHIRES, SVT AND WESTERN HILLS BY MONDAY MORNING… ISOLATED ICING THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG… MILDER EARLY THIS WEEK, MORE SUN MONDAY, MORE CLOUDS TUESDAY… A FEW MIXED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING… COLDER AIR WORKS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN… THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY LOOKS STORMY BUT PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAIN, MORE LIKELY RAIN AT THE MOMENT… DRIER FOR SATURDAY (7:15AM SUN)
Good morning everybody, rise and cloud! Or is it, rise and snow shower (if you’re in the Taconics and Berkshires this morning.
A weak trough will continue to swing through this morning, sparking off a few snow showers and flurries in the Taconics, Berkshires, and SVT. This activity may drift into the western hilltowns as well. Little to no accumulation expected this morning.
Temps are starting off in the upper 20s to low 30s, and some patchy fog still around, freezing fog is still possible so mind the road ways if you’ve got fog around, which Springfield was reporting earlier.
For the rest of today, after snow showers work through western parts of our region this morning and dissipate, we could see a few breaks of sunshine especially along/east of the I-91 corridor.
Otherwise, most of us see a mostly cloudy day with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Any sunny breaks that do develop will fill in with clouds this evening, as a warm front lifts into the area, draped off of a low center well northwest of us.
As temps cool back into the low 30s, overrunning precipitation will cause snow to form after sunset and during the evening, especially south of the VT/MA border in the WMass region and down into northern CT, sliding east with time into CMass.
A coating to 2″ is possible with this little feature, with most of us seeing coatings, if anything.
The 1-2″ amounts will likely be relegated to the eastern Berkshires, western hilltowns, and SVT (southeastern Bennington County into southwesternmost Windham has the best chance to see a couple of inches or so – think Rt. 9 corridor south to the MA border).
Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to 30 degrees.
For Monday (our pick of the week), a westerly and milder flow develops, with high pressure moving in and producing partly to mostly sunny skies (more sun in the valley, more clouds in the high terrain west of the CT River).
Highs will reach the low to mid 40s and west winds will gust to 30mph or so at times.
Clouds will increase Monday night as a front and weak shortwave approaches the region.
Tuesday looks mostly cloudy, with periods of light precipitation, with a mix of scattered snow and rain showers – low impact I would say.
Any snow mixing in would be Tuesday morning in the high terrain, as highs should reach the low to mid 40s again for Tuesday.
Some more mixed showers are possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as the shortwave moves through and exits the region. Lows will be in the low 30s.
Wednesday through Friday looks to feature the inclement weather of the upcoming stretch.
After some early morning mixed showers, we should enter a lull, as a front over the region will sag south of us, while high pressure moves east into northern New England or southeast Canada.
This will allow colder air to drain southward into the region as we dry out briefly into Wednesday afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 30s, and while mostly cloudy a few sunny breaks aren’t out of the question.
However, by Wednesday night, low pressure will be swinging east out of the southern Plains. Exact track will be key, but right now it appears that it could track over Long Island, which would hold the cold in and allow accumulating snowfall to develop late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, which could impact the Thursday morning commute.
A transition to ice and rain is then more likely Thursday afternoon into Friday, with highs only in the low to mid 30s on Thursday, and milder on Friday, with drier conditions expected by Saturday.
The two green/yellow graphics attached show a mix possible low center locations later this week. The first one shows lows tracking south of us on Thursday, which would lead to a more wintry solution, with Friday’s second system tracking northwest of us, bringing ice to rain.
As we’ve seen this Winter, lots of early indications show wintry precip, only to have the storm track trends push more northwest with time, producing a rainy result here in the WMass region.
Given all of the above, keep it tuned here, and I will keep you updated on what looks like an active period of weather this week, and I will update again late this afternoon or early evening regarding tonight’s period of light snow, which could cause some slick roads to develop in parts of the high terrain tonight.
Have a great day!