SECURELY BECOME A 2025 SUPPORTER TODAY
–> When 4% of readers support at any level,
this community weather resource can continue
(Secure options include Cards, PayPal, Venmo, Check)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TABLE OF CONTENTS
* Daily Celestials (Sun/Moon Data)
* Sponsor Note
* Morning Discussion
* TIP: Scroll below for sections, or read all
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:58am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 5:10pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 10 hours and 12 minutes
MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 10:31am this morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 2:08am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Gibbous (52.0%)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons, and Tandem Bagel Company… No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With *New Pizza Bagels(!)*, along with bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go.
You can either 1) visit them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and/or West Springfield, 2) hire them to cater your next event, or 3) use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website and clicking the “Catering” or “Order Online” links.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
YOUR MORNING DISCUSSION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Good morning folks, well well well, I must say, I haven’t seen a pattern loaded with winter storm potential like this in probably 10 years since the Winter of 2014-2015.
Now, make no mistake, the winters of 2013-2015 were the last great southern New England winters that we’ve experienced, which harkened back to the 20th century winters of the 50s, 60s and 70s, and even the first half of the 90s (‘92-‘93, ‘93-‘94, and the top of the tops, ‘95-’96).
I do not necessarily see THAT level of wintry impact, as the pattern favors zonal (i.e. more west-southwest to east-northeast) sliders that are missing the upper trough near the Great Lakes needed to amplify and slow down surface-based coastal storms to really dump the snow an pump the wind.
However, compared to the recent run of “winters’ over the past several years, the potential is there for a snowy and/or icy February (Snowy YAAAAAAAYYYY….. Icy BOOOOOOOOOOOO), with more seasonable temps and temperature swings with no huge warm-ups in sight.
In fact, I am seeing signals for up to 5 moderate-level snowfalls over the next 2 weeks. Some may bring ice or rain with them, some may not materialize, but as Bernie Rayno said earlier this morning, the pattern is LOADED.
Backing up to the day to day, we are starting off in the single digits to teens, and even low 20s this morning, a bit milder than expected due to extra cloudiness overnight, which keeps temps a bit milder and prevents “warmth” from escaping into Sssspppppaaaaaaaaacccccceeeee.
It’ll be breezy today with northwest gusts up to 20mph or so, but not like yesterday afternoon and evening when the cold air was first arriving into the greater WMass region.
Highs will reach the upper teens to upper 20s today, and tonight clouds will build ahead of our incoming winter storm system with lows dropping into the upper single digits to mid teens.
For Thursday morning, snow arrives like a wall with deep cold in place. Snow should start between 7am-9am or so from west to east (8am for the Pioneer Valley, is my best estimate) and it will stick QUICKLY due to remnant cold road surfaces.
This is a fast-moving, fairly weak system, but will peak with steadier/heavier snow between 10am-Noon, maybe into the early afternoon. After that, milder air is expected to work in aloft while it remains cold at the surface.
This will flip snow to sleet into the early to mid-afternoon, possibly ending by late afternoon toward dinner time as a brief period of freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle, so travel will definitely be impacted tomorrow. Highs will reach the low 30s, with lows in the 20s.
——————-
SECURELY BECOME A 2025 SUPPORTER TODAY
–> When 4% of readers support at any level,
this community weather resource can continue
(Secure options include Cards, PayPal, Venmo, Check)
——————-
Personally, I think there is a decent chance for areas north of the Pike stay snow and sleet, and we may see areas north of the Rt. 2 corridor stay all snow, especially in SVT and SWNH, but for now, it looks like snow to ice, with 1-4” of snow/sleet accumulation, maybe a few 5” amounts north of Route 2 by late Thursday night.
By Friday, northwest winds develop once again with gusts up to 30mph under partly sunny skies with some lake effect or upslope snow showers possible in SVT and the Berkshires. Highs will reach the upper 20s to mid 30s with lows in the teens.
On Saturday, we’re looking dry, so no problems with plans during the day into the early evening. Highs will climb into the mid 20s to low 30s with partly sunny skies, giving way to overcast skies by evening.
Our next storm is set to then approach New England with another bout of accumulating snowfall. Snow likely arrives between 9pm and Midnight from west to east, and it will accumulate overnight with lows in the low to mid 20s.
The trends on this storm are for a more southerly track, so this one could be all snow, and if so, we could see a 3-6” or 4-8” type snowfall, but I will keep you updated as I can’t rule out a changeover to sleet or freezing rain for some of us.
That storm will move out by afternoon after an impactful Sunday morning. Highs will reach the 30s with lows in the teens.
Early next week looks fair and seasonable with highs either side of 30º and lows in the teens, before yet another winter storm is possible by Wednesday (with more storm signals after that) so please know I will stay on top of it for you and update whenever warranted.
Have a great day and if you’d like to support my work so that I can remain in your service, please click the secure link below for available options and thank you.
SECURELY BECOME A 2025 SUPPORTER TODAY
–> When 4% of readers support at any level,
this community weather resource can continue
(Secure options include Cards, PayPal, Venmo, Check)
“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell