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TABLE OF CONTENTS
* Daily Celestials (Sun/Moon Data)
* Sponsor Section
* Morning Discussion
* TIP: Scroll to your section, or read all
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YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
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STAR:
–OUR STAR RISES AT: 7:13am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 4:48pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 9 hours and 35 minutes
MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 10:02am this morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 10:55pm tonight
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East
–MOON PHASE: Waning Gibbous (71.5%)
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YOUR MORNING DISCUSSION
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Good morning folks, and welcome to the new 200 or so followers!
I’ve been running this page for over 13 years now, and doing it on a 99.9% daily basis since the Winter of 2013 back when the Blizzard of 2013 blew through February 8th and 9th when I saw it snow 9” in two hours.
For tonight, you’ll most likely be up near the storm’s jackpot for tonight if you see 9” in 12 hours, much less two, but it sure is going to be looking wintry by tomorrow morning and feel like it by tomorrow night!
As for this morning, temps didn’t lower as much as I thought they would, but they still managed to bottom out in the mid 20s to low 30s, so with leftover moisture from last night’s rainfall, black ice has formed so be careful heading out and about early this morning.
Highs will reach the 30s today, and many of us will go above freezing, so why all lthe talk of snow?
Well, even though the cold air has lagged the cold frontal passage last night, it is most assuredly coming, because as our coastal low now over X takes shape today and tracks off of the NC/VA coastline headed for or just north of “The Benchmark” (i.e. a point at 40ºN / 70ºW, about 75 miles south of Nantucket island), it will be pulling much colder air in from northwest to southeast at all levels of the atmosphere.
Clouds will increase today after some morning sunny periods, and precipitation will arrive between 2-5pm from southwest to northeast.
With highs for some above freezing today, we may see a rain/snow mix at first or even plain rain, but it will turn over to snow pretty quickly as the sun sets and colder air advects into the region.
As of this morning, it looks like we won’t get a full-on coastal-hugging storm track and instead will get a flatter track about 50-75 miles south of Nantucket best I can tell as of this writing, and that more likely than not pulls the heaviest snow banding southeast of my thinking yesterday, meaning areas of eastern Tolland and Windham County CT up into eastern Hampden County into southern Worcester County could see the highest snow totals.
Snow will fall moderately to heavily at times overnight and taper off to snow showers in the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning, and be totally gone by 7am.
At this point I believe the greater WMass region (WMass, CMass, N.CT, S.VT, and SW.NH) will see 4-8” of snow (I had raised to 5-10” yesterday morning).
I also think there is a decent (but not great) chance of a 6-10” zone in the eastern Tolland and Windham County CT, eastern Hampden County, and southern Worcester County regions where I think heaviest snow banding is more likely to set up.
The fact that much colder air will be slamming into the precip shield and making the snow much fluffier over southern VT and northwest MA and increasing the SLR ratios (an increasing snow to liquid ratio means you need less water content to produce an inch of snow than normal) makes me think that even in those northwest parts of my coverage region we’ll still see 4-8” on average, but it wouldn’t surprise me if some areas northwest of the heaviest snow bands fall more into a 2-5” range.
I will be updating around early afternoon and again throughout the storm into late tonight, and will communicate any adjustments or changes, if need be.
Lows tonight will crash into the mid-single digits to low teens as north to northwest winds gust up to 25mph driving wind chills down to either side of 0º by early Monday morning with a fresh snowpack on the ground.
Monday through Thursday morning is going to be, look and feel like full-on, old-school mid-winter with a fresh snowpack and lowering temperatures and wind chills, though at least we’ll have fair weather and partly to mostly sunny skies.
There is a good chance for scattered lake effect snow showers to develop later in the afternoon with highs reaching the upper teens to mid 20s, while lows plummet into the single digits below and above zero degrees with wind chills down to -10º or even more by Wednesday morning, which means Cold Weather Advisories will likely be hoisted at some point by the NWS.
Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will end up becoming the heart of the upcoming cold blast with highs in the low to mid teens and lows in the single digits below zero with a few areas just above zero. In addition, we’ll see a continuation of below zero wind chills during this period.
We’ll start to moderate our temps on Thursday and Friday with continued fair weather and highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits above zero with less wind.
A low chance at another winter storm arrives later Friday into Saturday, but for now, I remain focused on tonight’s storm, so check back with me if you would, and I will keep you updated throughout tonight’s snowfall.
P.S. Every year I run an annual support drive to help raise support for my daily and diligent weather reporting for our region (which launches next month) but folks have already been asking how they can contribute to my work, so if you’re interested you can support my work on my secure website, here: https://westernmassweather.com/support-network/
Have a great day!
“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell