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TABLE OF CONTENTS
* Daily Celestials (Sun/Moon Data)
* Sponsor Section
* Morning Discussion
* TIP: Scroll to your section, or read all
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YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
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STAR:
–OUR STAR RISES AT: 7:14am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 4:47pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 9 hours and 33 minutes
MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 9:44am this morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 9:54pm tonight
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East
–MOON PHASE: Waning Gibbous (79.6%)
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YOUR MORNING DISCUSSION
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Good morning folks, while some uncertainties continue with storm track (both further and closer to the coast which has snow total implications), I am going to raise my snow totals into a widespread 5-10” range with potential for some one-foot amounts in the northwest hilltowns and eastern Berkshires and northern Worcester County into eastern Franklin County, and a potential for more like 3-6” in northeast CT (eastern and southern Tolland into Windham Counties CT and southern Worcester County) *IF* the storm tracks close enough to push an icy/rainy mix into those specific areas for a time tomorrow evening.
BUST POTENTIAL
The storm track is not set in stone, as the atmosphere is a gigantic and amorphous 8-mile thick fluid layer, so as they say, BLANK happens, and at this point my concern is that this storm tracks a bit more southeast than currently expected, pulling heavier snow bands more southeast and away from WMass and points north and west.
If that were to happen, we’d probably end up with a 2-5” type snow (my most recent widespread snow-total thinking until late last night), with 5-10” in southern CMass and northeast CT, but we’ll see how it plays out and my current call is in the first paragraph above.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
Before we get to our Sunday snowstorm, and then our subsequent Arctic outbreak during the first half of next week, we have to get through Sunday noon.
For today, Saturday, we’ve got high pressure to our south which will help produce southerly, milder flow into our region, which is already noticeable this morning with temps in the 20s to low 30s.
Highs will rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s as early sunshine fades into overcast skies as a cold front approaches western MA for tonight with southerly gusts this afternoon up to 20-30mph at times as mild air makes a feeble attempt to set up shop, only to be bulldozed seaward by incoming Arctic cold that finally arrives on Monday behind Sunday night’s snowstorm.
Rain showers should hold off today until about mid to late afternoon, but will then push in with a cold valley rain and some mix or snow in the far northern Berkshires, western Franklin County and southern Green Mountains in VT before ending by midnight.
Some new coatings in those aeras are possible, but this isn’t a prodigious precipitation producer, even though rain may fall heavily at times.
Lows are going to drop into the mid to upper 20s behind our front initially, and with the southerly gusts swept out to sea, the lack of wind with falling temp and wet surfaces could produce some black ice on untreated surfaces by very early Sunday morning, so be alert when walking the dog or heading out early on side roads.
For Sunday, we may see some early partial sunshine, but clouds will build during the day as a storm sweeps northeast out of eastern Virginia and tracks toward an area south of Nantucket Island into Sunday night.
Snow will overspread the region by 2-4pm, but with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s before Arctic cold gets pulled southeast through the region at night, we could see some rain mix in at first in southern valley areas down into north-central and northeast CT over towards Worcester before we flip to all snow by early evening.
By dinnertime, we should all be snowing moderately to heavily at times with snowfall rates of up to an inch per hour possible, and maybe a bit more in the heavier snow bands that will form as the mid-level temperature gradient tightens up (meaning lower temps to the northwest and milder temps to the southeast will get closer to each other… for example -14º 3 miles above North Adams and -6º 3 miles above Worcester transitions several hours later to -14º above Deerfield with -6º above Sturbridge… that temperature spread aloft gets more and more narrow, creating “frontogenesis”, which creates those heavy snow bands).
The snow will last until the early pre-dawn hours and be gone by the Monday morning commute, which will be good to allow crews to clear road ways before too many cars hit the roads. It will also be a mostly fluffy type of snow, which is easier to handle and move.
A FLUFFY FOOT? IT’S POSSIBLE
Also, temps are going to CRASH Sunday night, diving into the single digits to low teens, which will make the snow much fluffier and easier to stack up which is why a few folks could see a foot of fluff.
BUST POTENTIAL REVISITED
Now, with those heavier snow bands, you get rising air, but in adjacent areas to the snow bands, you get sinking air – what goes up, most come down, so there more likely than not will be areas of “winners” and “losers” with snow totals, and some sinking-air areas could fall below 5” of accumulation.
THE ARCTIC HAMMER COMETH
Folks, I’m getting old, I need to make some bank to fund my nursing home stay, so believe me when I tell you, I will become The Arctic Hammer and rule professional wrestling for years to come so I can get some old-man care! I’m working on my flying elbows as I type!
I’m kidding (mostly), but man, is it going to get cold Monday through Wednesday night, as the Arctic empties the contents of its icy belly through New England with highs Monday only reaching the teens to low 20s, with highs in the teens Tuesday and Wednesday, and lows below zero with wind chills as much as -15º below zero.
At least we’ll see fair weather the first half of the week, although I am still watching for low potential of light snow into northeast CT and southern CMass Wednesday with a storm that likely tracks out to sea.
By late week, temps moderate and come back up into the 20s, which is still significantly below average for later January.
In addition, we have another snowstorm signal to watch for late week, so please know that I will update again this early afternoon before I head into the hills to help celebrate the birthday of my friend, and will be updating more frequently tomorrow morning, noon and night as we get ready for the first widespread plowable snowfall of this Winter.
Have a great day!
“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell