EAST OF THE I-91 AND SOUTH OF THE RT. 9 CORRIDOR WILL BE THE JACKPOT ZONE FOR OUR REGION… CONCERN FOR HEAVY BANDING IN THAT AREA MAY CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SINKING AIR TO THE NORTHWEST LEADING TO SOME SNOW TOTALS IN THE 2-5″ RANGE… PLEASE POST YOUR CURRENT CONDITION REPORTS BELOW…. (10:30PM Sunday)

Good evening everybody, our late-season snowstorm is setting in tonight with light accumulations noted across the region. The snow is generally wet with temperatures still in the upper 20s to low 30s.

INTENSE LIFT = HEAVY SNOW FOR SOME TONIGHT
Currently, two areas where temperatures are clashing and producing frontal boundaries (one near Delaware, and the other across PA and NY) will combine with moisture and convection from earlier today, along with very strong lift produced by an upper level jet that will pass overhead.

As jet streams pass overhead, they evacuate air away from an area. As this air is vacuumed away, air at the lower levels rushes in and rises up to replace it. This creates lift, or rising air. Also, frontogenesis, which refers to the creation of fronts, is an area of convergence, and when air converges it rises, creating even more lift. As this all combines with moisture tonight, it will produce moderate to heavy precipitation in the form of snow.

Heavy snow will fall over eastern CT, eastern Hampden County, easternmost Hampshire County and CMass (and of course, EMass). After midnight, we’ll see a few hours when 1-2″ per hour snowfall rates will be realized. Note the depiction at 3am in the attached map, and you can see heavy banding over eastern Hampden County into southern Worcester County.

HAVES AND HAVE NOTS
Now, when such a heavy band of snow sets up, it’s not uncommon for subsidence to occur on the northwest side. Subsidence is sinking air, which dries out the precipitation shield, causing lighter precip. This may cause a sharper drop off in snow totals from Northampton, MA, north and west.

We will just have to watch these observations play out in real time now. I am not changing snow total ranges, but I would not be surprised to see lower ends of the ranges more north and west, and higher ends of the ranges more south and east.

Snow should quit by about 7am tomorrow with a lighter band of snow east of I-91 that may last until 9am, then it’s done.

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SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE IN THE HIGHER ENDS OF THE RANGES PROVIDED… SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES NOW HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NOW POSTED FOR SVT AND SWNH… VERY STRONG CONVECTION IN RESPONSE TO OUR DEVELOPING STORM HAS PRODUCED A TORNADO OUTBREAK TODAY ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA… THIS HAS IN TURN HAS CAUSED MOISTURE TO SURGE A BIT MORE NORTHERLY… MY RANGES FROM EARLIER STAND, BUT AM ADDING A HIGHER SNOW TOTAL RANGE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 5-10″ REGION-WIDE SNOWFALL FROM SVT DOWN TO NORTHEAST CT AND S. WORCESTER COUNTY… PLEASE POST REPORTS LATER TONIGHT IN THE COMMENTS BELOW… (3/3/19, 5:25pm, Sunday)

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Good afternoon everybody, I’ve been monitoring observations this afternoon as well as new short-term guidance.

There is a nasty outbreak of tornadoes that has entered central Georgia late this afternoon, which is a very very bad situation indeed for that region.

How that relates to us is that because our storm tapped that Gulf of Mexico moisture, the clash of air masses combined with said moisture to produce a lot of rising air, a/k/a convection.

Sometimes, large areas of convection can cause slight alterations in the stream flow out ahead of them. This looks like the case today.

In fact, our low pressure system in AL/GA and its associated convection appears to have helped to cause a lowering of pressures way north-northeast, almost reaching southwestern Pennsylvania.

This northward surge should allow low pressure to track off the east coast tonight, bring it a little closer to Nantucket Island, and passing about 75 miles south of there, or right over The Benchmark.

This along with a somewhat juicier precipitation shield way to its north should allow a bit more of heavier precipitation into the region overnight.

In fact, some areas may see 1-2″ per snow rates around or after midnight, when the heaviest and steadiest snow will fall.

The steadiest snow should fall between 11pm and 7am, with the heaviest after midnight and before sunrise.

SNOW AMOUNTS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
I think SVT, southwest NH, the northern Taconics, the northern Berkshires, and western Franklin County will see 3-6″ of snow.

I think the central and southern Taconics, southern Berkshires, Litchfield County CT, central and eastern Franklin County, western and central Hampshire County, western Hampden County, and northern Worcester County will see 4-8″ of snow.

I now believe that central and eastern Hampden County, eastern Hampshire County, Hartford, Tolland and Windham counties in CT, and southern Worcester County will see 6-10″ of snow.

And not only that, but given this observed northward nudge, it is quite possible that the higher ends of those ranges may be realized everywhere, but especially if you live east of I-91 and south of the Pike.

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A sharper northwestern cutoff is expected in the northern Berkshires, SVT, and westernmost Franklin County at this time where some subsidence may occur in response to heavier bands of snow (i.e. rising air) to the south and east.

SNOW ONSET AND DEPARTURE
Snow should move into the region from southwest to northeast between 6:30-8:30pm. It may start as some rain or mixed rain and snow before flipping to snow.

Snow should quit between 7am-9am tomorrow as some lighter to moderate snow bands may still be passing through the region during the height of the morning commute as the storm begins to wind down.

HEAVY WET SNOW SOUTH AND EAST
The further south and east you go, the wetter and heavier the snow will be, and this is where the heaviest accumulations are expected.

Some isolated power outages are expected in the region that is both south of the Pike and east of I-91.

BUST POTENTIAL
This is a juicy system, and it’s not possible to know ahead of time exactly what the ratio of inches of snow to liquid water that falls from the sky will be.

If we get 12:1 ratios in the northwest zones, and 10:1 in the southeast zones, we should be in good shape. If we end up getting 8″ to 1″ of water then totals may achieve in the lower or central ends of the ranges. I don’t see how we go below the ranges, but it’s weather and we’ll see how it plays out!

In addition, the exact track of the storm is going to be key, but as of now, it looks like it will track a bit closer to Nantucket Island, spreading heavier snow a bit more north.

Having said all that, I really do believe there is a better than 50% chance for a 5-10″ snowfall across the region I cover (SVT, the Taconics of E.NY, WMass, N.CT, CMass, and Southwest NH).

Ok everybody, I just wanted to get that adjustment and update out to you before the snow begins to fly.

As mentioned before, as the storm gets going tonight, please post your condition reports below.

I hope you have a great night! Safe travels to all, and I will try to answer as many questions as I can. And if you feel my work is worth supporting and keeping alive and thriving, I would be grateful for your support tonight during my 2019 Annual Support Drive, just click/read below, thank you very much…
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WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR CENTRAL & EASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY (NORTHAMPTON/AMHERST), HAMPDEN COUNTY, ALL OF CT, AND ALL OF CMASS… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY, WESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY, FRANKLIN COUNTY, CHESHIRE COUNTY NH AND THE TACONICS… ACCUMULATING, PLOWABLE, WET SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT AND LEAVES IN THE MORNING.. A FEW OUTAGES CAN’T BE RULED OUT… (8:15am Sunday)

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TODAY’S DATE: Sunday, March 3, 2019

TERRESTRIAL:
HIGH AIR TEMPS: Highs should rise into the low to mid 30s in the Berkshires/Taconics/Litchfields, western hilltowns, SVT/SWNH, and N. Worcester County, while we reach the upper 30s for the Pioneer Valley floor down into northern CT and in S. Worcester County.

LOW AIR TEMPS: Lows should drop into the mid to upper 20s region-wide

SKIES: Mostly sunny this morning with clouds building this afternoon with rain and snow showers beginning between 6-8pm from southwest to northeast across the region

WINDS: Light southwest wind developing today, turning light north overnight

NWS ALERTS: WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED, EXCEPT FOR SVT….

CELESTIAL:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:22am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 5:42pm this evening
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 2:54pm this afternoon
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 5:37am tomorrow morning
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent

Good morning everybody, I apologize for the later morning report today. Yours truly had a gig last night, and afterwards I’m tired but wired, and I’m no spring chicken.

Speaking of spring, it will have not have sprung tonight and tomorrow morning. Nopers.

Given that more snow is on the way, let’s together nerd out in wordy on-screen tappity-taps replete with meteorological musings and pontifications aplenty, shall we?

I’m glad we’re all in agreement.

DISCUSSION:
As of this morning, low pressure is sweeping east-northeast across the Deep South, entering central Alabama as of this writing. Radars are indicating is it siphoning Gulf moisture from south to north, as expected.

This system will continue to track east-northeast to the Carolina/VA coast, and then out into the ocean, hooking more northeasterly and passing about 100 miles or so south of Nantucket.

Typically we like to see storms pass over what is called “The Benchmark”, which is a GPS point of 40N/70W, or 75 miles south of Nantucket Island, which is close enough to produce classic, big snowfalls in southern New England.

This storm should track a bit south of there, and be positioned at Nantucket’s longitude at about 7am tomorrow morning.

SNOW ONSET/DEPARTURE
Precipitation should arrive between 6-8pm tonight. Do not be surprised if we start off with scattered rain showers or rain and snow mixed. However, as heavier precip quickly moves in, any mixed rain will flip to all snow after sunset.

Snow departs between 6-8am tomorrow morning, so there could be some delays. Very little of the daylight hours will contain flying dendritic ice crystals.

SNOW AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY
Snow will fall moderately to heavily at times tonight, and driving conditions will go downhill the later we go into the night.

It’s possible that some areas see snowfall rates of 1″ per hour, with the best chance of that happening across north-central and northeast CT, and south and east of the Rt. 9 corridor that is EAST of the Connecticut River. This is where the heaviest snow will fall, upwards of 8″.

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I believe that in the Taconics, Berkshires, southern VT, southwest NH, and Franklin County we should see 3-6″ of snow, with more like 2-4″ in the northern halves of Windham and Bennington Counties in SVT, as they will be too far away from the storm.

I believe that in Hampshire, Hampden and Worcester Counties of MA and all of northern CT we should see 4-8″.

Some of the lower ends of that range will be due to subsidence (i.e. sinking/downsloping air) in the Connecticut River Valley itself, whereas the higher ends of that range will be in easternmost Hampshire and Hampden Counties into southern Worcester County, and south into northeast CT.

ISOLATED OUTAGES POSSIBLE
While there won’t be much wind with this system, this will be a heavier and wetter snow the farther south and east you go, and more powdery (but not like last Wednesday) the further north and west you go.

So the areas where we should exceed 5″ or 6″ will be a heavier snow with a bit more water in it, so the weight of this accumulation could cause some tree limbs to fall on power lines, especially as some trees were weakened by our recent severe wind event.

WHY A FOOT OF SNOW IS NOT POSSIBLE
Just to recap why we’re not getting the 8-12″ amounts that were mentioned several days ago, I won’t belabor it, but here is a quick list:

–This storm is tracking flatter than originally thought. But why, Dave?
–Because the trough in southern Canada has more of a southward push and the storm could not get out ahead of it, meaning on its southeast flank
–So, the trough remain oriented SW to NE, and forces the storm to track more west/east, then southwest/northeast
–This will be a wetter system, so with milder air and wetter snow, the snow ratios go down. In other words, if this passed through our super cold and dry Wednesday air mass, we’d be seeing up to a foot in spots

COLD ALL WEEK COMING UP
After a milder Monday with highs above freezing, a cold front moves through and unseasonably cold air invades all this coming week.

Expect highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits to low teens. However, it will be partly to mostly sunny much of the week before another storm system may bring wintry weather next weekend.

Ok folks, that about does it for now, I hope you have a great day, and if you haven’t yet had a chance to contribute to my DHTWN Annual Support Drive for 2019, you can do so securely by clicking the link below (Check, PayPal and Card options). Thank you.
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