TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT… WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT AND CONTINUE FOR SVT… WINTER STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF WMASS, CMASS, AND SW.NH, THOUGH I EXPECT SOME OF THESE AREAS TO CONVERT TO WARNINGS ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HILLTOWNS AND FRANKLIN COUNTY… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF N.CT…. WIND ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE BERKSHIRES, TACONICS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS… PLOWABLE SNOW ON THE WAY FOLLOWED BY HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN… EARLY SCHOOL DISMISSALS ARE PROBABLE… TUESDAY EVENING IS NOT A TIME TO BE ON THE ROADS… (7:55pm Monday)
Good evening everybody, we’ve got our calm before the storm this evening and overnight, as cold and dry air drains into the region thanks to high pressure to our north which will drift east and position itself to our northeast.
While this is not an ideal high pressure position for all snow, it will keep enough cold air into the region to produce a 4-6 hour thump of moderate to heavy snow tomorrow afternoon.
For the TL/dr crowd, the summary is below. If you read it and then have questions, please read the discussion below that. For those that enjoy the details, the discussion follows the summary immediately below.
Let the games begin!
SUMMARY
–Cold and calm tonight, lows in the low teens
–Cloudy and cold tomorrow, highs in the mid 20s
–Snow starts between 10am-noon, first in northwest CT then spreading northeast through the region
–Snow will accumulate quickly given cold ground preceding this storm
–Snow will pick up in intensity by early/mid afternoon, and could fall 1″ per hour at times, maybe more to the north and weste
–Plowable snowfall expected
–Snow changes to heavy sleet between 5-8pm, and that time span may shift forward a bit
–Sleet and freezing rain overnight creates horrible driving conditions
–We taper to light mixed precipitation showers Wednesday morning, with some snow showers expected along and north of Rt. 2 as colder works back in
–3-6″ in northern CT, 4-8″ in the heart of WMass and CMass, and 6-10″ along and north of Rt. 2 corridor is expected
–Please read below for more specifics in terms of locations, discussion, impacts, etc.
DISCUSSION
For tonight, high pressure drifts west to east, positioned north of New England. This will drain colder air southward into the region, and drop lows into the low teens by morning.
For tomorrow, our upper level low will be well to our west. An impressively large stripe of snowfall will be generated as warmer air runs into, up and over our cold air at the surface, thanks to high pressure to north and northeast.
Light snow could start as early as the late morning, but likely not before that, as dry air in place has to be saturated from the top of the atmosphere down before snow will be allowed to reach the ground.
#SnowHasBeenVeryBadAndMustBeTaughtALesson
So generally speaking, snow begins in Litchfield County, the southern Taconics, and the southern Berkshires between 10am and noon, and then it will progress quickly northeast through the rest of our region from that point forward.
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE QUICKLY
High temps tomorrow are expected to reach the mid 20s, so after a very cold night, the ground will become slick quickly as snow picks up in intensity after noon.
As previously mentioned, our opening snow band (called #ThumpasaurusRex… I’ll be here all week!) will be oriented from west-northwest to east-southeast, and that whole feature will be lifting northeast through the region. As this warmer, very moist air slams into the cold air to its northeast, moderate to heavy snow will develop over our region.
In fact, it appears that somewhere over the northern Berkshires, the northern half of Franklin County, or in southern VT and southwest NH, a band of 2″+ per hour snowfall could fall for a 1-2 hour period as this intense convergence materializes.
In addition, southeast winds gusting 25-45mph up against the Berkshires, western hilltowns and southern Greens will aid in enhancing snowfall rates as well.
Otherwise, 1″ per hour snowfall rates will be likely for several hours before we change to sleet sometime between 5-8pm or so from northern CT up into SVT/SWNH.
HEAVY SLEET TOMORROW EVENING
A mid-level surge of milder air is inevitable with our parent low and upper low well west of our region, tracking to our north. We will turn to ice.
Given this unique setup, our change line from snow to sleet will be tracking from southwest to northeast through the region, insread of north to south.
I believe some of us in northern CT and along and south of the Pike will be changing over to sleet roughly between 4-6pm, maybe a little later if the cold holds on a little longer.
Unfortunately, this will be happening right around the drive home from work. It will be sleeting moderate to heavy, and could POUR ice pellets at times, so travel is strongly discouraged tomorrow evening, if at all possible.
Even southern VT and southwest NH will change to sleet, along with the rest of WMass, CMass and NCT, but snow will hold on a bit longer north of the MA border.
FREEZING RAIN = ISOLATED OUTAGES POSSIBLE
Milder air continues to advect into the region during the pre-dawn hours and lower toward the surface, turning us over to freezing rain, and up to two-tenths of ice accretion is possible.
If the timing of strong southeast winds mixes with ice accretion, some isolated power outages will be possible, and it is northwest CT, the southern Berkshires and western Hampden County highlands where the best chance of an outage or three exists. Plain rain is even possible in northeast CT, the low elevations of Hampden County into southern Worcester County.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
I am holding firm more or less and believe that 3-6″ of snow will fall in northern CT, central/eastern Hampden County and east into the southern half of Worcester County.
I believe that 4-8″ will fall in northwest CT, the southern Berkshires, southern Taconics, western Hampden County, all of Hampshire County, central/eastern Franklin County and the northern half of Worcester County.
I believe that 6-10″ is likely in the northern Berkshires, northern Taconics, western Franklin County, SVT and SWNH where it stays for snow longer and where someone in these areas will get under that heavy snow band during the afternoon.
All of this will be followed by an inch or sleet, give or take, and up to two-tenths of ice accretion, the way it looks now.
A DELAY IN CHANGE TO SLEET = MORE SNOW
It should be noted here that a 1-3 hour delay in changing from snow to sleet can impact accumulations substantially. This delay could be, in part, triggered by a slightly faster secondary low development, or slightly southward track. These little nudges and changes can make the difference between 4″ of snow and 6″ or 7″ of snow in a case like this storm.
In other words, the amounts are what I think they will be. However we could be adding 1-4″ to those amounts if the cold holds a touch longer before we change to sleet before midnight (and likely well before).
However, as of now, my thinking is all laid out above, but that potential for more snow exists, even if it is a lower chance of being realized.
WEDNESDAY MORNING
The storm’s dry slot punches into the region by sunrise on Wednesday morning, and some light mixed preciptiation showers are possible during that time. As the secondary low (that will have crossed over Providence and Boston) blows up out over the Gulf of Maine, it will drag colder air southeast through the region.
Additional light snow is possible in SVT, SWNH, and the northern Berkshires into western Franklin County Wednesday afternoon. Highs will reach the mid to upper 30s from north to south.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND
It will be nice and mild Thursday with partly sunny skies, then Friday brings a weaker system with some rain and snow showers lasting into Saturday before we cool down next week.
Ok folks, that does it, I am running around like a nutcake tonight, but I will do my best to answer whatever questions you might have that I can.
Have a great night, and if at all possible, plan to not be on the roads after 2pm tomorrow, and especially not at night. Slippery, treacherous road ways will become manifest 24 hours from this post.
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WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW UP FOR SVT… LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES/TACONICS THIS AM… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOW UP FOR NORTHERN CT… WINTER STORM WATCHES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE…. WIND ADVISORIES ARE NOW UP FOR THE TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND SVT… WINTER STORM ON THE WAY… (7:55am Mon)
Good morning everybody, more and more reporting on incoming winter storms feels like riding in a boat, things give a little here, they take a little there, and you try to find the through line within what is usually variable and often times conflicting data up to the storm’s arrival, and during at times. For this morning, I am going to leave my thinking alone, which is 3-6″ south of the Pike 4-8″ north. However, I think there could be wider differences between the lowest amounts down in northeast CT vs. the highest amounts up in northern Windham and Bennington Counties in SVT and northern Cheshire County in southwest NH, which I will hint at in the summary below:
SUIMMARY:
–A few flurries this morning will dissipate under cloudy skies, although a thin finger of accumulating snow has formed in the northern Taconics into the northern Berkshires and southwestern Franklin County and northwestern Hampshire County in the hills this morning
–A dusting to as much as inch of snow is possible
–Otherwise, even though we may see some sunny breaks, it looks like today ends up mostly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 30s
–As high pressure moves to our north tonight, a cold air drain sets up dropping us into the upper single digits for lows, dry conditions
–We wake up cloudy tomorrow as our storm system’s leading edge approaches
–Highs are tomorrow are only expected to be in the mid to upper 20s
–Snow now looks to start around noon, give or take
–Snow will become heavy at times during the afternoon with 1″ per hour rates possible
–Snow will first change to sleet from south to north, likely in northern CT by sunset, and a touch later in WMass/CMass and points north
–Snow should go to sleet in even SVT, and freezing rain could move in up to the Rt. 2 corridor
–Snow/ice changeover lines and times to be better refined this evening, this is a just a guide for now
–Showery mixed precip in the morning should quit by noon on Wednesday, but persist a bit in the Berkshires and western hilltowns during the day
The thing I am concerned about at the moment is that the southeast winds are going to gust 35-50mph tomorrow night, pushing moisture and lift into the western hilltowns, the Berkshires, Taconics and southern Greens.
This could produce enhanced snowfall amounts in these areas above 4-8″.
I will post a full report this evening with a complete update, so while I will try to answer questions this morning, please look for that update which will have the most updated information.
Have a great day!