WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF WMASS, CMASS, SVT, SWNH, AND THE TACONICS IN ENY… MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET TO SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT TRAVEL ANY TIME FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE AND BEYOND…. PLOWABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE A CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT… SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS QUIT BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LEFTOVER WINTRY PRECIP PACKETS IN THE BERKSHIRES… (7:20pm Sunday)
Good evening everybody, we have an impactful winter storm on the way that is still carrying considerable uncertainty with its ultimate outcome.
One of these days I’d love to just report that we’re getting a fat snowstorm, and that’s that, but that’s not how this winter is unfolding so far and we’re more than halfway through.
Anyway, I could expound endlessly on my puerile complaints, but where will it get me? Nowhere. It is what is, and report on what comes our way I shall.
Let us now enter the Acceptance stage of grief over this Stinkpot-McGee of a Winter, and delve into the details, shall we?
No, we shan’t?
Yes, we shall. #ENGAGE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
Clouds wil continue to build into the region overnight as a frontal boundary and weak disturbance slides to our south. It will pass moisture overhead, but we are so dry at the surface, that most of it should evaporate before reaching the ground.
This will serve to cool the lower atmosphere even more, so expect lows in the teens tonight. A few flurries or light snow showers are possible.
For tomorrow, the weak disturbance to our south slides away like an annoying thought, and we will enter a partly to mostly sunny day with highs in the mid 20s or so in the high terrain, and low 30s in the valley.
QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE SETS THE ICY TABLE
As Monday wears on, high pressure is going to be sliding eastward into place in southern Quebec (see attached graphic). As it does so, it will drain very cold air south and south-southwest into WMass and surrounding counties tomorrow night, with lows dropping into the mid to upper single digits!
This will create an excellent overrunning surface as we cloud up on Tuesday and get ready for our initial front-end snow thump.
MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW INTO TUES AFTERNOON CHANGES TO SLEET BY EVENING
It will be in the teens to low 20s by late morning when snow is expected to track southwest to northeast through our region, starting first in Litchfield County, CT and the southern Berkshires/Taconics. For now, assume a 10am to noon start time, SW to NE.
Just how long we will remain as all snow on Tuesday is going to come down to how dominant the parent low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes into NY state will become, as well as how quickly our secondary low develops, and exactly where it tracks. The difference of 50 miles is huge in changes to the precipitation types we will see across the region.
The faster the secondary system can develop and the more southerly it tracks, the more it will help to hold colder air in for longer at all levels, which would produce more substantial snowfall before a change to sleet and freezing rain. This change to ice will happen – it’s just a matter of when, and then how far the sleet/freezing rain line advances north.
As of now, I think the parent low is going to be pretty powerful and think the secondary low will develop later Tuesday night, which would have us rely more on the high pressure cold air damming setup from the Canadian Maritimes high pressure system to produce cold across the region. However, that would only hold in surface cold – the low/mid levels would lose out to a milder air surge northward.
Give all this, I think the parent low will wrap up nicely and hurl a substantial amount of air water at us, and correspondingly, milder low-mid level temperatures.
Still, even with this milder expectation, we could see 1-2″ per hour snowfall rates well into Tuesday afternoon, so I still expect a plowable snowfall before we change to sleet.
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN FROM PM COMMUTE TO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
The next challenge will be to see determine where the sleet and freezing rain line and/or pockets set up. I think along and north of the Pike up to the MA/VT border will see more sleet than freezing rain.
I am not buying some model guidance that has us flipping to all rain. Cold air is very stubborn to move in this valley, and there will be PLENTY of it at the outset of this storm.
South of the Pike we could see a good amount of freezing rain, and accretions could reach two-tenths of an inch, maybe a touch more, with some isolated outages possible if winds can gust to 30mph or so, which is possible.
This storm will wind down Wednesday morning, but we could still have periods of mixed precipitation Wednesday morning that should quit by noon, possibly as some rain as temps warm up briefly behind this storm, before dropping into the low to mid 20s Wednesday night.
Some hilltown or Berkshire snow showers will be possible into Wednesday night.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
For now, I am going with 4-8″ along and north of the MassPike in WMass, CMass, SVT and SWNH. This would extend down into and include the southern Berkshires, western Hampden County hilltowns, and northern half of Litchfield County in NW.CT.
Otherwise, south and east of those areas, I think 3-6″ will about do it, and more like 3″ or 4″ if sleet moves in quick enough.
BUST POTENTIAL
I think if anything, the way it looks now, this storm could bust a little colder, meaning these snow total ranges would have to be raised a couple of inches. This would presume a bit stronger of a secondary low, tracking a bit further south, with a general 5-10″ snowfall for all of us before mostly sleet on top, with some freezing rain over northern CT.
We shall see how it plays out, and I will keep you updated as the future begins to merge with our soon-to-be present stormy moments.
Either way, municipalities and plow operators need to pay attention to this developing storm situation, as the plows will need to hit the roads for at least some parts of our region, if not all of it.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND
Thursday is seasonable and Friday into Saturday looks like a full-on rain storm, with brief wintry mix in the high terrain at the onset, but for now, I am focused on this storm system.
I will update you in the morning with more of a summary report, and then provide another full update tomorrow evening before our storm gets going the following day.
I will do my best to answer any questions this evening, have a great night, and get ready for another snow and icy mix mess of a storm!
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FLURRIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH… COLDER AIR DRAINS SOUTH OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANDA MONDAY NIGHT… SNOW BREAKS OUT TUESDAY MORNING AND TURNS TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT… UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP TYPES AND MIX LINE… EVEN SVT COULD MIX… MILDER LATE WEEK WITH WINTRY MIX TO RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… (7:05am Sunday)
Good morning everybody, #PoopyPattern2019 for snow lovers lives to see another day. *Insert Debbie Downer sound here*
I will post a full report tonight by 7 or 8pm with updated information, so for now, I’ll just bullet out the salient points:
–After lows mainly in the single digits this morning, we will rebound into the upper 20s to low 30s under mostly sunny skies early
–Clouds build later in the day, as a weak system approaches from the west
–It will be moisture-starved, and will serve to just generate some increased cloudiness, and possibly a few flurries or snow showers
–Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper teens
–For Monday, expect a mostly sunny day as high pressure builds in to our north. Highs will be in the upper 20s to low 30s
–Temps will plummet into the single digits for lows thanks to a cold air drain produced by high pressure to our north
–Meanwhile low pressure moves in from the west southwest, and light snow will be possible by earl/mid morning, with highs Tuesday either side of 30 degrees
–Steadier heavier snow builds in by late morning to early afternoon and we should get several inches of accumulation before we see mixed precip muck up the works by sunset
–Mixed precip in the evening will cause commute hassles, and last into the overnight as the mid level low tracks well west of us, allowing above-freezing air to move in aloft while it’s below freezing at the ground
–Mixed precip may change back to snow for some on Wednesday before quitting
–Thursday looks sunny and seasonable, and Friday looks milder and rainy, with possible wintry mix over the high terrain. #BrokenRecord
Ok folks, have a great day, and I will update you tonight with some more details and graphics to paint the picture of our upcoming weather conditions.
Live long and prosper! Engage! Make it so, #1!