WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW POSTED FOR SVT AND SW.NH… WATCHES CONTINUE IN WMASS/CMASS, BUT I THINK THAT ASIDE FROM THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND MAYBE WESTERN FRANKLIN / WESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES, THEY GET CONVERTED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES… SECONDARY DELAYED DEVELOPMENT AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COULD REALLY CUT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF RT. 9… (7:50pm Monday)

Good evening everybody, how the hell are ya? I’m doing fine, just getting adjusted to my reading glasses. I have resisted for so long, and ultimately began using a selfie stick to hold restaurant menus 20 feet away from so I could read them. When the entire length of Center Street in Hamp no longer worked, I knew I had to give in. You will some day, too, if you haven’t already. It’s slightly depressing, and a reminder that everything that grows breaks down eventually. Ok, before I get too morbid, let’s talk about how little snow some of us will get from this potentially flubby little wave of a storm that may just earn a Stinkpot McGee rating of MEH.

SUMMARY
–For tonight, lows will drop with a fairly decent thud, bottoming out in the high singles over the Berkshires and SVT, and low to mid teens elsewhere
–Tuesday will generally be cloudy, and some snow showers are possible during the daylight hours. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s with lows teens to 20s after a possible hold in the mid 30s near Springfield and points south and east
–One of the problems with this storm for snow lovers, is that the high pressure supplying cold air initially is more to our northeast then north
–This will allow the parent low that passes well to our northwest to have a period of time to develop southeast winds at the surface, while the high to the northeast tries to drain cold from the northeast
–The second issue is that our secondary storm development looks like it is going to take a bit longer to ramp up, and probably not do so until it’s passing through New England Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning
–The third issue is track, which while still uncertain, does appear it will be just south of WMass, or possibly right over us
–This could allow snow to change to rain for a time in northern CT and up to the level of the MassPike in WMass and CMass with mixing happening into southern portions of Hampshire County before changing back to all snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
–Areas north of the Pike in WMass and CMass should remain all snow, but that Pike to Rt. 9 corridor stripe from Haydenville down to Westfield and points east into Worcester County will be the Trickster Zone

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REVISED DOWNWARD
–I think for northern CT up to Westfield, MA and points east through Hampden and the southern half of Worcester County, a coating to 2″ should do it
–The exception to the above is Litchfield County could see more like 2-4″ in the northern half of NW.CT
–I think for southern Berkshire County, western Hampden County (hills), central and eastern Hampshire County, central and eastern Franklin County south of the Rt. 2 corridor, and the northern half of Worcester County south of the Rt. 2 corridor, 2-4″ should do it, maybe a touch more in a few spots
–I think for the Taconics, northern Berkshires, western Hampshire/Franklin hilltowns, SVT, Franklin County north of Rt. 2, SWNH, and Worcester County north of Rt. 2, 4-8″ should accumulate
–There is the potential for the southern Greens or normal SVT snow dump spots to pick up 10″
–Most of the snow will fall Tuesday evening into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning, and quitting by about sunrise on Wednesday

INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS WEDNESDAY PM…
After our storm departs to the east, our 1-2 Arctic blast will be incoming.

The air aloft will be cooling rapidly and deeply Wednesday afternoon, and with highs that day in the upper teens to mid 20s, lapse rates (i.e. the temperature difference from ground to sky) will be steepening fast.

This will cause intense lift ahead of the incoming Arctic cold front, and should spark off some heavy snow squalls that will be capable of a quick coating to an inch as well as white out conditions, and strong gusty winds.

WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LIKELY…
Wednesday night will see air temps drop into the single digits below zero with wind gusts up to 30mph out of the west, which will drop wind chills well into the double digits below zero, so Wednesday night and Thursday morning will be brutally cold.

Highs on Thursday will only be in the single digits in the high terrain to maybe low teens in the valley, with lows near zero Thursday night.

We moderate Friday through Sunday under partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the 20s to 30s by Sunday.

A rainy system looks likely by early next week, and we can expect a milder start to the first week or so of February before another potential cool down by mid-month.

Have a great night!
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WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY, THE TACONICS OF E.NY, ALL OF S.VT, SW.NH, FRANKLIN COUNTY, THE WESTERN HILLTOWNS, AND NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY FOR PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING… POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USHER IN COLD ARCTIC AIR FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE MODERATING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK… (8:20am Monday)

Good morning everybody, we’ve got accumulating snowfall on the way, especially north of the MassPike, so let’s jump into the details!

SUMMARY
–High pressure dominates the day creating mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 20s over the high terrain and mid/upper 20s in the valley in down in CT
–Clouds build tonight as moisture starts to pool in the region ahead of our incoming Tuesday night storm
–Expect lows in the low teens this evening, as winds become lighter, and we get some clear skies for a time before clouds increase
–For Tuesday, we will see mostly cloudy skies, and a few snow showers are possible up until sunset. Highs will be in the low 30s
–Thereafter, parent low pressure tracks northeast through the eastern Great Lakes and pushes a warm advection shield of light snow into the region by 6pm or so
–Secondary low pressure will form along the parent low’s frontal boundary draped to its south, and this low is going to track somewhere over CT most likely
–That the precip is moving in at night is helpful to keeping more of us all snow. If it were during the day, there would be a greater chance for mix/change to rain, and I do think that still happens for a time Tuesday night along and south of the Pike in the low terrain
–With the secondary storm’s precip enhancement, and assuming we do stay all snow north of the Pike, which I think we will, this system will bring the plows out for some
–Snow becomes moderate to heavy at times Tuesday night, and quits after midnight on Wednesday, and before the Wednesday morning commute
–After any brief mild nose up into Springfield-to-Worcester earlier Tuesday night, lows will crater into the teens to low 20s with cold air right on our heels
–Any rain that does form in the lower Pioneer Valley and northern CT should change back to snow before ending before sunrise on Wednesday morning

SNOW AMOUNTS
–I think 1-3″ should do it for northern CT up to and along the Masspike in central/eastern Hampden County, and southern Worcester County. Maybe a touch more if we get a faster flip to snow
–I think 3-6″ in the southern Berkshires, and north of the Pike in central/eastern Hampshire and Franklin Counties, as well as northern Worcester Counties
–I think more like 5-8″ with a few 10″ amounts possible will fall in the Taconics, northern Berkshires, western hilltowns of Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin counties, SVT and SW.NH

I will refine these if necessary, but that’s how it looks now. A light snowfall for some with mixed rain, and a moderate snowstorm for a bunch of us.

BUST POTENTIAL
I don’t like that this secondary low will be forming pretty close to WMass, and so the bust would be to the warm side with lesser amounts if more rain mixes in. It will be a fast moving system.

SNOW SQUALLS AND DEEP FREEZE WED/WED NIGHT
–Highs Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s under partly to mostly sunny skies
–A line of snow squalls and showers is possible as much colder air presses into the region, and creates robust lift ahead of the cold front
–This would move through in the afternoon, and some fresh coatings to an inch will be possible
–Wednesday night then plummets to below zero temps by dawn on Thursday morning with west winds gusting to 30mph
–Wind chill readings will be in the double digits below zero Thursday morning, so bundle up! Advisories and Warnings will likely be needed
–Thursday is the coldest day, with highs in the single digits and lows either side of zero
–Friday and Saturday are cold, but with highs in the 20s. Fair weather dominates through Saturday night
–Some snow showers are possible by Sunday as we continue to moderate our tmperatures

Have a great day and stay tuned for upcoming snowstorm updates!