THE WINTER OF 2018-2019 IS GAME ON… COLD AND STORMY LOOK FOR END OF JANUARY IN THE ATTACHED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAP…
(6:00pm Monday)
Good evening everybody, if you just want the forecast, scroll to the last section which comprises the last half of this post. I also wanted to slow down and look at why I posted about the ice storm potential earlier today, as well to discuss the overall hemispheric pattern that we can expect.

POTENTIALS AND PROBABILITIES
The purpose of my early afternoon post was to demonstrate ice storm POTENTIAL only. There has been so much chatter about a huge snowstorm with the main channel apparently creating hype around a big dump of snow.

Many potentials exist, including the potential for an inland snow to rain result, a snow to crippling ice storm result, a major snowstorm result, and a light/moderate snowstorm result. I would be hard-pressed to believe it would be a miss to the south.

THE FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN
The storm in question is way out over the Pacific Ocean. Our Troposphere (the part of our atmosphere where our weather occurs) is a gigantic and massive variously-heated-and-cooled fluid that is 6-8 miles high and thousands of miles in every direction. Lots of little upstream changes (generally to our west from where our weather originates) can create big downstream changes and impacts (or lack thereof) where we live.

All this to say, patience middle-aged grasshoppers. Each day brings new data, new refinements, new subtle changes, or confirmations of strengthening trends.

We’ll take it one day at a time, and put one foot in front of the other like everybody else in this crazy world, and step into the future together to see what it brings for us meteorologically.

STRONG WINTER PATTERN SETTING UP
I will go into the forecast in the next section below, but wanted to share this upper level map with you. It shows departures from average for air pressure about 3-4 miles above our heads. Looking at this level helps us to broadbrush/paint a picture of the types of surface weather we can expect.

And the attached map paints a picture of cold and snow/ice.

The blues and greens represent the pouring of colder temperatures and lower pressures into the eastern U.S. and New England from the Arctic and Canada.

The redder colors up by Greenland show ridging (or high pressure) that can act as a “block” for storms trying to exit our region, which can slow them down and also help keep cold air in place.

Finally, the redder colors over the western U.S., Canada, and Alaska also indicate ridging that tends to direct cold Arctic air from northern Canada southeast and right into New England.

This is a VERY wintry look for New England, my friends, so keep the winter boots, snow shovels, and sand/salt at the ready through the end of this month with a few wintry events possible. This pattern looks to last into February as well and into part of March.

In other words, Winter is arriving with gusto.

SNOW SHOWERS IN SVT WEDNESDAY, LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY, MAJOR WINTER STORM SUNDAY…
I’m going to bullet things out for you below. As always, I appreciate when you share these updates so other people can be alerted to incoming impactful weather conditions for our region.

–Cold tonight, clear, lows in the single digits
–Mostly sunny tomorrow with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s, light wind
–Lows in the upper teens to low 20s tomorrow night under mostly clear skies
–Low pressure races east, and passes to our north Wednesday
–Snow showers are possible in southern VT, and possibly northern Cheshire County in SW.NH
–Expect highs on Wednesday to get above freezing in many spots as we get into a mild sector briefly
–Lows drop into the teens Wednesday night
–Thursday starts off sunny and ends with clouds building into the region, highs in the 20s
–Snow moves in Thursday night, and will generally fall light to moderate in intensity
–Snow lasts into Friday morning, and may change to rain in northern CT and on north to the level of the MassPike or so before quitting by Friday afternoon
–Like Wednesday highs rise above freezing and cool to the teens at night
–Saturday, like Thursday, starts partly sunny, then clouds up, and we could see snow by dinner time
–At the moment, it looks like low pressure tracks from the northwest U.S., east-southeast into the southern Plains, picks up plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture, then tracks east-northeast into the New England region
–This is going to be a moist storm with 1-2″ of water/liquid equivalent (If all snow, that translates to over a foot of snow for some), IF we get the right storm track
–For now, the expected storm track equates to snow Saturday night and into very early Sunday morning before changing to a period of moderate to heavy sleet and/or freezing rain
–As of now, we would end with light snow, with the potential for several inches of snow and a highly impactful amount of sleet and ice glaze
–This is, of course, subject and likely to change, so stay tuned as we get closer!
–This storm is certainly worth paying attention to

Just know that a major winter storm appears to be more likely than not to impact us here in southern New England.

As for the subtle details, they will emerge over time, as we move through each day, and I will keep you updated on all of it, and through the weekend into next week and beyond.

Have a great evening!

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TWO SNOW CHANCES ON THE TABLE THIS WEEK, ONE LIGHT EVENT FOR FRIDAY, AND A POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO MAJOR WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY… CALM AND A BIT MILDER UNTIL THEN… COLD START TODAY (7am Mon)

Good morning everybody, it is very cold out this morning as our pattern continues to change. We will get a brief mild-up by mid week thanks to a Clipper low racing east through southeast Canada and the crown of Maine. This will bring in more cold air late week to set the table for a couple of wintry storm systems that bear watching, so let’s jump into the daily details below:

SUMMARY
–After some overnight clouds dissipate, we’ll have mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid/upper 20s generally. Some folks may reach 30 degrees
–As high pressure builds into the region tonight and tomorrow, we will drop to either side of 10 degrees tonight for lows
–For Tuesday, we will see highs in the upper 20s to low 30s under partly to mostly sunny skies (more cloudy over the high terrain).
–Lows Tues. night will be in the upper teens to low 20s
–On Wednesday, a Clipper low tracks east well to our north. This will put us into a mild sector for a day
–It will also make it possible for SVT to see a few snow showers as this system passes through
–Temps will “spike” into the low to upper 30s from the high terrain to the low under partly sunny skies
–A cold front quickly moves through in the afternoon, and drops our lows back into the teens as fresh cold air advection gets underway from Canada
–Highs on Thursday will be colder, generally in the low to mid 20s under mostly sunny skies
–Low pressure will be tracking west-southwest to east-northeast from the southern Plains toward New England
–Where exactly this low tracks is critical in terms of a possible snow/ice or snow/rain line
–Right now, it looks to track along the southern New England coast, which would bring light accumulations of 1-3″ into our region late Thursday night into Friday during the day
–This disturbance would whip through and clear us out by Friday night into Saturday
–However, a much more potent and larger storm system in the southern stream will be tracking toward our region, and may phase with a northern stream trough that has ample cold air connected to it
–This could produce a major snow/ice storm in our region late Saturday night into much of Sunday, so stay tuned for future updates on this potential system

Have a great day!