WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR TOMORROW NOW POSTED FOR THE BERKSHIRES, TACONICS, LITCHFIELD, FRANKLIN COUNTY, WESTERN HAMPSHIRE HILLS, SVT, AND SW.NH… SNOW TOMORROW MORNING CHANGES TO ICE/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS PLOWABLE SNOWFALL FOR SOME FOLKS IN SVT, THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES, TACONICS, AND WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT…
(7:20pm Mon)

Good evening everybody, thanks for all the sweet love on my #MapCandy post earlier. I mean, I’m the first to love up some map candy, but I’m also the first to suppress the #Wishcaster inside, as well. It ain’t easy being nutty!

Having displayed epic amounts of bad humor, let’s consume some #DashesData together:

–We should be dry tonight as clouds continue to build into the region
–Dewpoints are super low right now, which means it’s really dry outside
–Having said that, there is a protruding finger of snow and sleet gliding east through east-central NY towards the NY/MA border
–It looks formidable on radar, but it’s only producing very light snow and sleet on the ground, because it is so dry out there
–All this to say that even though the main band of snow first moves in tomorrow morning between 4-7am, we could get a few light flurries or sleet pings near midnight tonight
–Lows tonight drop into the low 20s, which will provide for an excellent overrunning surface as milder/moister air rides up and over the cold dome to bring a period of light/moderate snow during the morning commute tomorrow
–For Tuesday, snow arrives and continues until about 9-10am roughly, and then should transition to sleet or rain showers, changing to all rain by noon
–If the precip shield gets more showery during the snowfall and lightens up, we can’t rule out some freezing drizzle producing light glazes across parts of the region
–I think we generally see a coating to inch from northern CT up to Rt. 2 corridor and east of the western hilltowns
–The western hilltowns, Berkshires, Litchfields, Taconics, SVT, SWNH and Franklin and Worcester County along/north of Rt. 2 should see 1-3″
–We rise into the upper 30s tomorrow as milder Pacific air once again moves in behind the snow burst
–Rain showers will be scattered into Tuesday evening
–Then we watch a storm form in the Gulf of Maine and strengthen rapidly
–As this happens, an upper low will strengthen and move toward our region into Wednesday morning
–This combination will cool the atmosphere aloft rapidly, and produce steep lapse rates (i.e. the gradient in temperature from surface to sky)
–This will promote rising air, and with available moisture will develop a another burst of rain changing to snow overnight late Tuesday into especially Wednesday morning
–Another coating to 1″ or 2″ is possible by Wednesday afternoon in WMass and CMass, except for the Taconics, northern Berkshires, western Hampshire/western Franklin counties and SVT
–In those areas, I’m thinking we are going to see plowable snowfall for some that may last intermittently Wednesday, Wednesday night and into Thursday morning
–From Tuesday around midnight through Thursday morning, these areas could see an additional 2″ to as much as 8″ of snow (that high amount would likely be relegated to the peaks of the southern Greens, like Snow, Stratton, Bromley, etc.)
–This will be due to a combination of 3 factors: 1. Snow generated from the connection of the incoming upper low and departing Gulf of Maine bombing low, 2. Upslope snow effect from westerly component winds blowing up the west slopes of mountains and combining with remnant moisture, and 3. some lake effect enhancement by late Wednesday into Thursday
–In short, Wednesday looks wintry across SVT and the high terrain of WMass and adjacent eastern NY
–After some morning mountainous snow showers Thursday, we are looking fair and dry and COLD Thursday through Saturday
–Highs Thursday are upper 20s to low 30s, with lows in the teens
–Highs Friday are in the teens with lows in the single digits!!
–Wind could be an issue too, especially Thursday
–Saturday splits the difference between Thursday and Friday for temps (colder than Thursday but milder than Friday)
–Then we watch for a potential coastal snowstorm on Sunday
–As I said earlier, a LOT has to happen to bring this storm to fruition over the region, so just know it’s possible, and I will update as we get closer and know more

Have a great night!
—–
TWO ROUNDS OF SNOWFALL TO IMPACT TUESDAY AND (ESPECIALLY) WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTES… OTHERWISE FAIR AND COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCE FOR A SNOWSTORM SUNDAY, BUT LIKELY PASSES SOUTH AND OUT TO SEA… (7:10am Mon)

TODAY’S DATE: Monday, January 7, 2019

TERRESTRIAL:
HIGH AIR TEMPS: Highs should rise into the mid to upper 20s in the Berkshires/Taconics/Litchfields, western hilltowns, SVT/SWNH, and N. Worcester County, while we reach the low 30s for the Pioneer Valley floor down into northern CT and in S. Worcester County.

LOW AIR TEMPS: Lows should drop into the low to mid 20s region-wide

DEWPOINT TEMPS: Below zero tonight rising into the teens and 20s by tomorrow morning, which means evaporating snowfall overnight until about 5-7am when it starts to reach the ground

SKIES: Mostly sunny early, with high clouds by afternoon, then thickening/lowering tonight

WINDS: Northwest winds gust to 20mph early this morning, then slacken and become light/variable later today

NWS ALERTS: None

CELESTIAL:
–OUR STAR WILL RISE AT: 7:18am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 4:34pm this evening
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 8:23am this morning
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 6:10pm this evening
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent

SUMMARY:
–Good morning everybody, we’ve got some wintry weather on the way so let’s jump in, so hold your nose #Cannonball!
–High pressure builds southeast through the region today, given us a mostly sunny start with a high-cloud finish
–At least winds will be dying down, so wind chill concerns evaporate with the super dry air moving into place
–As clouds thicken tonight, this dry air will play a role in producing a lot of virga during the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday morning
–Virga simply refers to snow that evaporates aloft before ever reaching the ground. This evaporative cooling process cools the surface air
–This should prohibit snow from reaching the ground until between 4am-7am tomorrow morning, west to east (though a few snow showers possible late tonight)
–Light to moderate accumulating snow arrives in time for our commute tomorrow, and should generally drop a coating to 2″ of snow before it changes to rain in the valley near noon, and then tapers off
–Best chance for 1-2″ is along/north of Rt. 2, as well as the Berkshires and western hilltowns. Otherwise, a coating to an inch will do it for most of us south of Rt. 2 down to parts of northern CT
–For tomorrow, mixed snow/rain quits by early afternoon, leaving us with a mostly cloudy day and highs in the upper 30s to low 40s as mild Pacific air moves in behind the warm frontal passage responsible for our light snow event
–Lows Tuesday night will drop into the low 30s with some rain showers moving through as a storm bombs out over the Gulf of Maine, likely causing a change to snow over our region, with a burst of moderate to heavy snow possible for WMass and surrounding areas
–This looks to impact the Wednesday morning commute with another coating to as much as 3″ along/north of Rt. 2
–Additional upslope AND additional lake-enhanced light accumulations continue in the Berkshires, Taconics, SVT and Litchfields Wednesday night
–An Arctic cold snap drops through the predominant zonal Pacific flow Thursday through Sunday with highs in the 20s Thursday and Saturday (lows in the teens) and highs only in the teens to low 20s Friday with lows in the single digits!
–By Sunday, this cold starts to lift back north, and if it does so enough, it could allow a coastal snowstorm to develop over the region, although best chance for any impacts would be southeast MA, but I will continue to monitor and update you

Have a great day!