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TABLE OF CONTENTS
* Daily Celestials (Sun/Moon Data)
* Weekly Weather Nutshell
* Morning Discussion
* TIP: Scroll below for sections, or read all
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YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
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STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:27am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 5:38pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 11 hours and 11 minutes
(Spinal Tap Approved!!!!)
MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 9:53pm this evening
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Southeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 8:28am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Southwest
–MOON PHASE: Waning Gibbous (86.6%)
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR
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Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons, and Tandem Bagel Company… No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With *New Pizza Bagels(!)*, along with bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.
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YOUR WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL
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–Periods of showers today, some heavy at times, some thunder possible, and some lulls in the action, too
–Highs in the 50s under mostly cloudy skies, southerly wind increases by afternoon with gusts of 25-40mph possible
–A potent storm is tracking well north of us, and will sweep its strong cold front through our region before midnight tonight
–This frontal boundary is likely to produce a fine line of convection, meaning an area of brief but heavy rainfall that could mix down strong southerly gusts over 40mph
–A one-two punch of strong gusty winds capable of producing power outages comes with the frontal passage as west winds gust 40-55mph
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–A quick temperature drop should change us from rain to snow, especially the along and north of the Pike (little if any snow south of the Pike), and at high elevation where a coating to 2″ may fall
–Frontal passage is 8-10pm, change to snow is 9pm to Midnight, starting first in SVT
–Lows crash into the teens and 20s, and some slick spots are possible
–Wind chills may crash near zero with continued windy conditions toward dawn
–A blustery, sunny, cold Thursday is on the way with highs in the 20s to low 30s and west winds continuing to gust 30-45mph at times, with cold wind chills
–Wind should slacken at night with lows in the upper teens to low 20s, followed by a sunny, nicer, milder Friday with highs in the 40s
–The weekend looks uncertain still, though it’s likely milder with highs in the low to mid 50s, and there will be periods of showers at some point, but more clarity should develop by tomorrow morning
–Until then, I am solely focused on today’s/tonight’s changeable weather as we close out the month, so stay tuned for updates!
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YOUR MORNING DISCUSSION
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Good morning everybody, we’ve got 24-36 hours of changeable and dynamic weather sweeping through our hills and dales, and once again I find myself peckity-peck pecking away on my laptop this morning, hoping that you find my version of coming attractions to be helpful and useful in some way!
For now during this early morning period we have an areas of showers that are tracking east-northeast through our region, though they are mostly along and east of the I-91 corridor.
A lull will move in behind this morning cluster I alluded to yesterday, but another batch of heavier showers with thunderstorms(!) is already pushing out of central PA/NY and towards the Catskills of NY and eventually the Hudson River Valley of eastern NY.
This activity will keep heading ENE and bring more showers and a few thunderstorms potentially to our necka-the-woods later this morning, with more showers expected through the afternoon as our cold front continues to track through the Midwest and into New England tonight.
With strong southerly, moist flow, temps are very mild this morning, and already up into the 40s and low 50s, and will climb into the mid to upper 50s under mostly cloudy skies today.
By afternoon, southerly gusts will continue to develop ahead of the front, and while the heaviest wind from this “warm portion” of the storm will rip through southeast MA and RI earlier today, we’ll see gusts coming up to the 25-40mph range before and around sunset today, again out of the south.
This will be in response to our incoming cold front as wind rides north along it, as the front tracks west to east towards us.
As this happens, what is called a “fine line of convection” is more likely than not to form just east of the front, and produce heavy rainfall, possibly with thunder, as it moves through tonight between 7-10pm from the Berkshires to eastern Worcester County.
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In fact, the Berkshires and southern VT have been placed into a marginal risk (very low) of a strong to severe thunderstorm with strong wind potential, which is rare for late February.
So we have strong southerlies developing with heavy rain, but then the front will swing through and with much colder temps aloft and a strong pressure gradient at the surface moving into our region, westerly wind gusts of 40-60mph are expected, and this could produce a wave of scattered power outages in parts of our region.
In addition, temps are going to drop quickly tonight, some 15-30 degrees through the night, and we should see rain change to snow with wet snow accumulations of a coating to 2″ possible between 9pm-1am, north of the Pike and especially in the high terrain of northern MA, SVT and SWNH.
Wind chills will also crash down to near 0º as winds will continue through Thursday, gusting 30-45mph at times.
After lows tonight in the teens to low 20s, highs will only climb to the 20s to lows 30s for most of us, but at least it will be sunny tomorrow.
Bundle up, peeps!
It’ll be cold with wind slackening Thursday night, with lows in the upper teens to low 20s, and Friday looks lovely with highs in the 40s under sunny skies.
The weekend is looking uncertain still in terms of impacts, timing, and how much rain we can expect.
The potential exists for a coastal storm to slowly track northeast toward our region and bring a period of showers Sunday into early next week with highs in the 50s, but we can’t rule out a few showers on Saturday, either.
I expect to become more clear after we get through this dynamic day of weather, and will update you tomorrow morning, but for now, get ready for showers, heavy rain, thunder, wind, snow, outages, and isolated slick surfaces overnight due to any accumulations of snow, which shouldn’t exceed a coating to 2″.
Have a great day, and if you depend on this community weather resource, please contribute to my 10th Annual Support Drive at the secure link below as I’m still well short of my 4% readershiip contribution goal.
It’s you that keeps these reports churning! (options include Cards, PayPal, Venmo, or Check, thank you!)
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>>> BE KIND <<<
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut