>>> YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS <<<
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:24am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 7:08pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 12 hours and 44 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 5:32pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Northwest
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 2:41am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: Northeast
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (17.7%)
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>>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<<
–Fog and low clouds slower to burn off today
–Mostly cloudy day, stagnant air, very humid, highs mid to upper 70s today through Tuesday, lows low-mid 60s
–Stalled frontal boundary focuses more showers and thunderstorms, scattered across the region, this afternoon
–Some lighter showers tracking northeast through the region this morning
–Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening
–More isolated to scattered showers/storms tomorrow morning, dissipating later in the afternoon and evening
–A brief area of higher pressure moves in for Tuesday with a few showers possible
–Then a more potent cyclone tracks east through the Great Lakes and puts MOTION into our region, sending a cold front our way Wednesday
–Potential for a more widespread rainfall with heavy rain possible and flooding concerns, departing Wednesday night into early Thursday
–Drier and cooler behind the front Thursday and Friday, highs 70s, lows 50s, lower humidity, yay!
–Then we watch Hurricane Lee, with best bet at this range that it will be a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane and track into Nova Scotia, near Cape Breton
–HOWEVER, we still cannot rule out a New England impact, but threat is lower, so stay tuned for updates, and before we get into this afternoon’s severe weather details let’s check a note from our local weekend sponsor, #GerardGhazeyBatesPC, an estate planning law firm in Northampton, MA.
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>>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<<
Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Gerard, Ghazey & Bates, P.C. GGBPC is a Northampton-based law firm regarded as the voice of pragmatic and well-reasoned estate planning, elder law and tax guidance in Western Massachusetts. The firm specializes in estate planning law, and expertly handles other matters such as Elder Law, Tax Law, as well as Real Estate purchase, sales, and refinance transactions. Contact GGBPC today to see how they can help! 

>>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<<
Good morning everybody, we remain stuck in this very humid, soupy air mass with atmospheric features lollygagging around aimlessly, drunk on their own moisture, boundaries stumbling into each other and producing showers and storms, falling down, getting up, bumping into each other again… a Profile in Stagnancy, which won’t be my new book title, in case you were wondering.

I definitely did not anticipate the CT cluster of showers and thunderstorms that bobbed north into the WMass region to bloom as it did, which caused quite a bit of rain to fall in some areas, mostly south of the Rt. 2 corridor, with less north.

For today, patchy fog continues in spots, and while it will become less dense and eventually evaporate, it will take longer this morning to do so. Remnant low clouds will linger, and a mostly cloudy day is expected.

As temps warm into the mid 70s to near 80º, we will see instability increase and scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by this afternoon into the evening.

Severe weather is not expected.

Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s.

Dave will cry around his dehumidifier and rehumidify the air.

This will make Dave cry even more.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday as the trough exits eastward, with higher pressure advecting into the region Monday night through Tuesday.

This will bring a break in the action on Tuesday, with only a few isolated showers. Highs will be in the 70s, as mentioned.

By late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a more powerful storm tracking well north of us into the eastern Great Lakes region and southern Quebec will spread a cold front towards our region for later Wednesday into early Thursday.

This has the potential to produce heavier rains in our region for mid-week, and some flash flooding can’t be ruled out, so I will keep you updated on that potential.

By Thursday into Friday, truly drier and cooler air moves in behind the cold front with highs in the low/mid 70s and lows in the 50s with lower humidity and sunnier skies.

Then we turn to Hurrricane Lee.

I purposefully have not been updating you on every little change in guidance, and over-analyzing charts and model runs, because I think it’s confusing to the general public.

Not that there’s not some utility in it, but hurricanes and tropical systems, especially up at this latitude, are so fickle and dependent on upper air features to steer them, while at the same time if they are powerful enough they can steer themselves.

Suffice it to say, we all have to continue to keep tabs on Lee all the way through its departure from our region, but for now, it seems more likely that the ridge of higher pressure that arrives here late week SHOULD help to bump it east enough and keep a second trough more northeast of us, to combine to pull/push Lee into Atlantic Canada, near Cape Breton, Nova Scotia or even southern Newfoundland.

That does NOT mean Lee is 100% not going to landfall in New England.

It just means for now, it’s unlikely, but for any ocean beach-goers we definitely see increased wave heights, some erosion, and rip tide issues starting by mid to late week, so stay tuned to your local statements on those issues.

Behind Lee I expect drier and cooler air to get pulled into the region late next weekend into early next week, but I will update on that as we get closer to those days.

For now, stay tuned to updates on Lee and I will definitely keep you updated here.

Have a great day!

>>> BE KIND <<<
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut