>>> YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS <<<
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:23am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 7:10pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 12 hours and 47 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 4:55pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Northwest
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 1:38am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: Northeast
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (26.1%)
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>>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<<
–On average, a partly sunny day today after patchy fog burns off
–Can’t rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm later this afternoon or evening, but MUCH lower threat than yesterday
–We should mostly see isolated showers this afternoon and evening, with many staying rain-free, though some hilltown areas may see some heavier showers pulse up
–It will remain quite humid today, tomorrow and through much of next week, except for perhaps Tuesday
–Sunday into Monday favors more in the way of scattered showers, downpours and a few thunderstorms, possible at any point in the morning, noon or night
–Highs in the low 80s today, and upper 70s tomorrow
–Monday will feature more scattered showers than we lull on Tuesday with a briefly drier bit of air moving through, but isolated shower possible
–Then Wednesday into Thursday could feature a more robust low pressure system with more widespread rainfall
–By late week we should be cooling down into the 60s and 70s for highs, watching to see where Lee will track, but before we get into this afternoon’s severe weather details let’s check a note from our local weekend sponsor, #GerardGhazeyBatesPC, an estate planning law firm in Northampton, MA.
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>>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<<
Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Gerard, Ghazey & Bates, P.C. GGBPC is a Northampton-based law firm regarded as the voice of pragmatic and well-reasoned estate planning, elder law and tax guidance in Western Massachusetts. The firm specializes in estate planning law, and expertly handles other matters such as Elder Law, Tax Law, as well as Real Estate purchase, sales, and refinance transactions. Contact GGBPC today to see how they can help! 

>>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<<
Good morning everybody, we had quite the complex of strong to severe thunderstorms yesterday with TONS of lightning, and the resultant cascading of booms both near and far.

While we have about 1000 folks still without power in WMass/CMass combined, we have over 37000 out in northeast MA where at least one if not two microbursts slammed through the region causing havoc back that way.

Best I can tell, our wind damage here was due to straight line severe thunderstorm winds, which are smaller more localized powerful bursts of wind that cause similar damage to a microburst, but are smaller in size and less uniform and organized in their proliferation across areas of land.

Today, tomorrow and Monday shouldn’t produce anything to Friday’s damage scale, but after patchy fog burns off, very humid conditions will persist as temps slowly tamp down, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s today, and some isolated showers or a few thunderstorms in parts of our region this afternoon and evening.

After lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s with more patchy fog late, we will be watching a shortwave work into the region Sunday which will combine with copious moisture and remnant heat to produce periods of showers, downpours and thunderstorms. It won’t be raining all day long, but we should see a few main clusters of activity, with highs in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s.

Rain could fall hard at times, and we can’t rule out areas of street flooding like we saw yesterday.

This activity should persist into Monday as a final wave moves through the region with more scattered showers and highs in the 70s, but that should conclude the impacts of this first upper trough, as Tuesday looks drier, sunnier, and with highs in the 70s and only an isolated shower expected.

However, another trough drops into the Great Lakes and deepens, and this one should be stronger.

Should its timing be such that it moves into our region by Thursday, this could help steer Hurricane Lee out to sea, or at least away from New England and into Atlantic Canada.

It’s when these Great Lakes troughs slow down and deepen down the Appalachian Mountains when they can guide hurricanes up and right into New England which is what happened in the Hurricane of 1938.

Folks, that IS going to happen again some day, and likely before 2038, and it will be catastrophic, there’s no buttering up that eventuality, and preparedness plans will need to be in place, but for now, I don’t believe Lee will be that storm.

Could it become that storm?

YES IT COULD, so please stay tuned for updates in the days leading up to the end of next week.

Before any potential Lee impacts, however, we have to get through the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, and it’s looking quite wet at the moment, with potential for low pressure to push a rainstorm into the region, with highs in the 70s.

By late week we watch Lee, and as we progress through the weekend, Lee’s wake as it pulls powerfully to the east of our region, should be to pull drier, more autumnal air into the region and flush this muggy soup out to sea.

Here’s hoping! Have a great day!

>>> BE KIND <<<
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut