Good evening folks, please share this with your friends or family in eastern NY, northwest CT, the Berkshires, western hilltowns and southern/central VT especially as those should be the hardest hit areas. 

TODAY’S FLASH FLOODING
We have already seen destructive flash flooding wipe our and destroy road ways in northwest CT at Norfolk, and in southwest NH at Winchester. 

This is a very serious situation developing, and some folks in the Berkshires, western hilltowns and southern VT into southwest NH could see Flash Flood Emergencies issued overnight and especially on Monday as more copious amounts of torrential rain from downpours and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, will dump 1-4″ of rain across the region, with a maximum of 4-8″ in parts of the western MA high terrain west of I-91, in northwest CT and southern and central VT into western NH. 

PREPARATION
If you live in a flood prone area, or live in any of the aforementioned areas, the time to prepare for road closures, road washouts, and other negative impacts from flash flooding should be undertaken TONIGHT. 

METEOROLOGICAL SETUP
We have an upper low to our west over the eastern Great Lakes that will sweep eastward into northern New England tomorrow. 

For tonight, a mid-level shortwave runs northeast into New England and will mix with a saturated air mass at all levels and help produce periods of showers, some torrential, through the night. 

As our upper low approaches from the west, it will induce a surface low to deepen off of the New Jersey coastline which will combine with an ocean low to help direct east-southeasterly mid level flow into the high terrain of northwest CT, western MA, the Taconics of eastern NY and southern/central VT and southwest NH, and some of the central MA highlands as well. 

This along with the fact that we’ll see upper level venting from faster winds aloft which will help vacuum air skyward, means that massive, broad rising air, otherwise known as “lift”, will ensure that we see heavy rainfall at times along with thunderstorms. 

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS / EMERGENCIES EXPECTED
We’ve already had 4-10″ of rainfall over the past two weeks, and part of determining Flash Flooding events is how saturated the ground already is. I was just in Worthington last night and could see some dirt roads that were partially/minimally washed out along their edges, and the graphic below indicates that the soils and streams don’t have a lot of receptive capacity to absorbe another 2-8″ of rainfall. 

Does this sound like hype? Well, northwest CT received 4″ in 2 hours today, and West Point, NY got 10″ just east of the Hudson River, with major flooding in both areas, so this a real call to be prepared for what could be an historic flash flooding event with major infrastructural, property and road damage possible. 

If you live in Vermont and northwest MA, I am especially concerned as it is rare for the WPC to issue a Moderate to High Risk of Excessive Rainfall in the Vermont and northwest MA regions.

Look, this is how things look now, my friends, and my job is to make sure you understand what I think is going to transpire and outline the potential. If you are inconvenienced by doing some extra prep tonight only for things to not be problematic tomorrow, then you are ready for when they ARE problematic.

I will update early tomorrow morning.

I hope you have a good evening, and I hope I am wrong about all of this…

>>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<< --Clouds gather today and fog lifts --Strong moisture surge will overtake all of southwestern New England later today, tonight and tomorrow --A shortwave east of a Midwestern upper low tracks into eastern NY this afternoon and tonight --This will help spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in the WMass region, especially west of I-91 in CT, MA and SVT --Heaviest rain today is mainly over NY, but starts to push into western parts of Litchfield(CT), Berkshire(MA), and Bennington(VT) Counties by tonight --Periods of heavy rain will push deeper into the greater WMass region by Monday morning --Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with localized damaging wind gusts Monday --Periods of showers, downpours and thunderstorms last Monday into Monday night before weakening into Tuesday morning --An overall 1-3" of rainfall is expected, and areas of the Berkshires, far northwest hilltowns up into SVT well west of the I-91 corridor could see 3-6" of rain --This will lead to flash flooding of streets and some streams, as Flood Watches continue --Tuesday begins to dry out, and Wednesday and Thursday heats up to either side of 90º and becomes more humid --After that, another unsettled period of more numerous showers and thunderstorms arrives later Thursday into the weekend, but before we talk details let's check a note from our local weekend sponsor, #GerardGhazeyBatesPC, an estate planning law firm in Northampton, MA. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<< Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Gerard, Ghazey & Bates, P.C. GGBPC is a Northampton-based law firm regarded as the voice of pragmatic and well-reasoned estate planning, elder law and tax guidance in Western Massachusetts. The firm specializes in estate planning law, and expertly handles other matters such as Elder Law, Tax Law, as well as Real Estate purchase, sales, and refinance transactions. Contact GGBPC today to see how they can help!

>>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<< Good morning everybody, for some of us who live in parts of the Berkshires, far western hilltowns that border or are near Berkshire County, up into western Windham County VT into Bennington County, and along the Taconic Mountains of eastern NY, a pretty serious flash flooding threat is developing for tonight, Monday and Monday evening. Generally speaking, western hilltowns that border the CT River Valley and points east in CT, MA and VT/NH (while setting up to see some soaking rains and isolated areas of flash flooding and/or strong to severe thunderstorms by Monday) should see less rainfall than our aforementioned westernmost regional areas. For this morning, fog lifts, and we continue to thicken the cloud deck into a mostly cloudy day with some scattered showers or a few thunderstorms by afternoon into early evening. Highs will only reach the mid 70s to low 80s. A mid-level shortwave will eject northeast into eastern NY and begin to develop areas of heavy rainfall later this afternoon into tonight, and that will push slowly east across the NY border into southwest VT, Berkshire County and Litchfield County. Our upper level trough that will dive into the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes will take on a neutral (axis being North to South) to eventually negative tilt (axis being more Northwest to Southeast), similar to a winter pattern. This will induce cyclogenesis off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline, and a surface low with a boundary to help focus torrential rain ove the greater WMass region will lift northeast into our region Monday morning into the afternoon. This will produce areas of very heavy rain at times, exceeding rainfall rates of 1" per hour, and strong to even severe thunderstorms are possible given an incoming combination of stronger wind shear, instability and moisture. While we can't rule out a few areas of damaging wind gusts due to strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday, it is mainly a flash flooding threat of street or stream flooding that is the primary concern and threat, as some areas by Monday night well west of the I-91 corridor, and at elevation, could see 3-6" of rainfall. This may result in partial destruction of a few mountain roads with excessive rainfall runoff as well. As the National Weather Service says, turn around and don't drown when confronted with flooded road ways, as you have no idea if the road underneath has been compromised and is ready to fail due to water action or weight, and you don't know what the current or its strength is in some cases. All of this activity winds down Monday night as the surface low and its boundary lifts through the region and departs, leaving us with some drying on Tuesday after a few early morning showers that will be exiting northeast. Highs will only be in the 70s on Monday, and then the 80s on Tuesday, and then either side of 90º by Wednesday, which is the pick of the week with mostly sunny skies, but also increasing humidity late. By Thursday into Saturday, we have another period of unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms at times, but for now, I am going to stay focused on the upcoming flash flood potential, as this could be a problematic situation for some folks in our region. I hope you have a great day, and I will update no later than this evening. Take care, Dave. >>> BE KIND <<< “Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you've got to be kind.” --Kurt Vonnegut