DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL
–A fast-moving, compact, minor to (for some) moderate impact winter system moves through w/ rain and accumulating snow today
–The lower valley south sees less than the northern valley and highlands that flank either side of the valley, with jackpot snows likely high terrain eastern Franklin Cty to northern CMass
–A coating to 2″ lower valley, with 1-4″ everywhere else also comes with a low chance of a few 4″+ amounts in northern CMass and northwest Middlesex County up into southern NH
–Snow and rain move in this morning, then exit by mid to late afternoon
–A few snow showers possible over the weekend, otherwise fair and mostly seasonable weather is expected through much of next week with a much-wanted return of sunshine
–Possible storm late week, though nothing strongly signaled at the moment, but before we jump into the weather discussion/details below, let’s check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with their newest location in West Springfield, MA.
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
DHTWN Is Sponsored by Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company: No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.
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***DHTWN DAILY WEATHER REPORT***
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALERTS
–Winter Weather Advisories are up for southern VT, as well as Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Middlesex Counties in MA
DHTWN REMINDER
–The odds of being a human is 1 in 400,000 billion… make it count, even in a small way (see Kurt Vonnegut quote at end of post)
DAILY CELESTIAL (STAR):
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 7:18am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 4:33pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 9 hours and 15 minutes
NIGHTLY CELESTIAL (MOON):
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 4:05pm this afternoon
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 8:12am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: Northeast
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Full Wolf Moon
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DAILY TERRESTRIAL (ZoneCast)
ZONE 1 (Northern Region)
Southern VT, Southwest NH, N. Taconics NY
–High Temps: Low to Mid 30s Greens & SWNH, mid/upper 30s either side of the Greens in SVT (Bratt/Bennington)
–Low Temps: Mid 20s to Low 30s
–Wind: Light easterly
–Skies: Overcast
–Precipitation: Rain changing to snow, though may stay as rain or rain/snow mix in Bennington / lower elevation of southwest VT, precip ends by sunset
ZONE 2 (Central Region)
WMass, N. CMass, N. Litchfield County, C./S. Taconics NY
–High Temps: Mid to Upper 30s
–Low Temps: Upper 20s to Low 30s
–Wind: Light easterly
–Skies: Overcast
–Precipitation: Rain changing to snow, though may convert to rain/snow mix in Great Barrington / southern Housatonic Valley as well as from Northampton-Holyoke south through Springfield. More snow in the hills, less in the valley, precip ends by sunset
ZONE 3 (Southern Region)
S. CMass, S. Litchfield County, NC.CT, & NE.CT
–High Temps: Low to Mid 30s Greens & SWNH, mid/upper 30s either side of the Greens in SVT (Bratt/Bennington)
–Low Temps: Mid 20s to Low 30s
–Wind: Light easterly
–Skies: Overcast
–Precipitation: Rain changing to snow, though may stay as rain or rain/snow mix in CT River Valley of northern CT, more snow in the hills, less in the valley near Hartford, precip ends by sunsetprecip ends by sunset
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MORNING DISCUSSION
Good morning everybody, our system is moving into the region with rain and snow this morning.
I have heard a report of snow from Fitchburg, MA already, and rain elsewhere, and am sure it has been snowing in the northwest hilltowns of WMass into parts of the eastern Berkshires.
What are you seeing this morning so far?
We’ll be seeing rain and rain/snow mix this morning, changing to snow through the afternoon and a snow/rain mix in lower valley areas down into Hartford, CT, most likely.
However, it should be noted that the entire hinge upon what our wintry impacts will be from this system are centered on a process called “dynamic cooling”.
The reality is, the temps are “marginal” today, meaning they sit near the margins temperature-wise between producing liquid or frozen precipitation.
There is no Arctic air in place, or that is being tapped at the surface.
What we have is a dynamic little wave advecting (or transporting) colder air aloft into our region from the west.
The spin of the system (called vorticity) helps to lift the air to condense it and causes precipitation, but the strength of that lift skyward will be aided by this colder air moving aloft, which steepens the lapse rate (gradient of milder temp at surface to colder temp up in the sky), making air rise more rapidly.
This is the whole crux of how this system will play out today.
As the storm moves into the region and the precipitation shield develops, the belief is that we’ll get air to rise strongly into an area aloft to not only cause heavier/steadier precipitation to develop, but to also where the big pretty snowflakes called dendrites are produced.
Should this all take place, the process of dynamic cooling will be maximized and pull that colder air DOWN to the surface, taking a surface environment that’s only really capable of producing rain or a rain/snow mix with only slushy coatings in the valley to an inch the high terrain, and transforming our regional surface into a much snowier scene.
I believe that much snowier scene setup is going to transpire.
However, you can see the bust potential to the downside if the dynamic cooling doesn’t set up, or if the precip shield doesn’t become heavy/steady enough.
In addition, assuming my belief is correct, it is already colder in the southern Greens, and is cooling more in eastern Franklin County, southern NH, and northern central MA (Worcester County).
These areas are mostly further east which allows the storm the ability to tap a bit of Atlantic moisture as it tracks east.
Therefore, I believe there is a 50/50 chance that northeast parts of WMass (central/eastern Franklin County, eastern Hampshire County (Amherst, Pelham, Ware, northern Belchertown) on up into southwest NH, and northern half of Worcester County into northwest Middlesex County could see 2-5″ of snow by this evening.
Elsewhere, I think we see 1-3″ (except 2-4″ in the southern Greens down into western Franklin County), and a coating to 2″ in the CT River Valley and northern CT.
Again, if this dynamic cooling process (which needs a number of parameters to align in real time) doesn’t come to pass, these numbers will come down, but that’s how I see it this morning.
Everything quits by this evening, and we end up with a mostly cloudy and dry Saturday with seasonably cold temps in the mid 30s to low 40s with lows in the 20s and a sunnier Sunday with cold temps in the low to mid 30s, followed by more fair and seasonable conditions next week, with a storm possible by Friday/Saturday.
That’s how it looks now, but these marginal events always make me nervous as everything has to line up perfectly to produce a potentially impactful result, otherwise it can turn into a bunch of bupkis, but I will update you by mid-day as I monitor conditions and get new information in.
Have a great day and safe travels to all who get in the snow! Keep me updated today on what you’re seeing, thank you!
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AND REMEMBER…
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut