7:05PM ALERT: ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY IS NOW UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING… WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SVT WEST OF BRATTLEBORO… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE NOW BEEN EXPANDED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF WMASS, CMASS, SOUTHWEST NH INTO EASTERN WINDHAM VT, AND NORTHERN CT EXCEPT FOR WINDHAM COUNTY CT… WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE WESTERN HILLTOWNS AND NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY… A BIT OF A COLDER SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY NOW, BUT IT’S STILL A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM… TOTALS ARE GOING UP A LITTLE BIT, NOTHING DRASTIC… RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW WITH WIND IN THE EVENING, BLUSTERY AND BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN CLOCKS ARE TURNED FORWARD AN HOUR… STORMY SATURDAY, BLUSTERY ON SUN(NY)DAY, SPRING CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, MY 2022 MEMBER/SUPPORTER DRIVE ENDS IN 2 WEEKS… SUPPORTED RESOURCE REMAIN SUSTAINED…
Good evening everybody, I’ve been looking at data and new information over the past several hours and wanted to provide an update to you about tomorrow’s storm.
The main story lines up with what I was thinking would happen is that it appears that the surface low is going to exit northern Delaware or southern New Jersey and track a bit more southeast than originally was being depicted.
If you want mostly just the impacts, scroll below for that, otherwise a Discussion of factors follows:
DISCUSSION:
Our surface low should deepen rapidly down to 980mb of pressure, which is a very strong storm, but while this will produce a stormy southern New England day, this isn’t going to be a nor’easter or a blizzard.
However, for the Berkshires, the northwest hilltowns and southern VT west of Brattleboro some moderate to major impacts will be felt where both heavier snow accumulations of 5-10″ should fall and possibly 10+” in the southern Greens, as well as wind gusts of 30-50mph which may provide outages tomorrow night in some snow-caked areas.
As far as the Pioneer Valley is concerned, below are a number of issues going against this storm being a major snow maker (most areas over 6″) in the Pioneer Valley and points south and east – this should not happen:
–Previously milder air in place
–The surface low is phasing with its upper low way northeast of here
–The upper trough is positively tilted, which makes this storm progressive, and so it will be a quick hitter, nothing to slow it down
Still, as long as we get the expected more-southeast track over Buzzard’s Bay or the Vineyard, I believe that the totals offered below will manifest after a rainy Saturday morning in the Pioneer Valley and points south and east (remember that it should be snowing in the Berkshires, western hills and much of SVT by mid morning heading toward late morning).
IT ALL HAS TO COME TOGETHER ON TIME
What I’m expecting is for both the transport of cold air horizontally into the valley floor (from Brattleboro to Hartford) by late morning to early afternoon (the more southeast the track, the more this occurs), as well as right on the heels of that transition to have the heaviest precipitation of the day fall as snow and produce dynamic cooling (i.e. vertical transport of air aloft to the surface) which would cool all of WMass down into north-central CT into southwest NH and northern CMass to produce a snowy afternoon, with less snow in northeast CT and southern CMass due to rain lasting longer there.
BUST POTENTIAL
In other words, if my thinking that the colder air will be drawn right in and through the region at all levels by very early afternoon doesn’t come to pass, this forecast will bust to the low side. I don’t think it would bust high with much colder must faster and much earlier, as it’s still a fast-moving system.
IF I’M RIGHT, TRAVEL ISSUES EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
However, if it does come to pass like I think it’s more likely to do, and we get a flip from rain to brief sleet to heavy snow for a time by around noon or so in the valley points east, travel could become problematic QUICKLY with wet roads underneath due to rain possibly mixed with ice pellets and fast-accumulating snow on top for an hour or two cooling the road from above, which could cause slippery road ways.
WIND AND OUTAGES
Westerly winds will pick up by later afternoon as the storm winds down between 4-7pm or so, and will continue overnight, gusting 30-50mph, which may combine with snow-laden lines and limbs in western hilltowns, southern Greens west into the Berkshires and Taconics to produce some isolated outages.
Winds continue past midnight and with lows crashing into the teens by morning, wind chills will be below zero in some areas, so bundle up and be ready for a wintry Sunday!
Below is a summary of impacts in list form:
TIMING/IMPACTS
–Clouds will increase tonight with time as one consolidated area of low pressure tracks from Alabama to Buzzard’s Bay by early afternoon tomorrow, deepening the whole way
–Lows will drop into the low to mid 30s, hold steady, then rise in the Pioneer Valley points east and south into the morning between roughly 3-9am, then begin cooling again by mid morning to early afternoon from west to east
–First showers may arrive pre-dawn, but as of now looks to be in the form of plain rain, with a very, very low chance a couple areas may get some brief icing very early
–By 6-9am the leading edge of the main precip shield should be pushing southwest to northeast through the greater WMass region
–It may mix with rain early in the Berkshires and SVT, but it should go to snow there pretty quickly, I’d say by mid-morning
–Rain will fall heavily in the Pioneer Valley into late morning, but then should mix with and change to sleet briefly and then snow by late morning into early afternoon, and progress east and south from there into northeast CT and CMass by 2pm or 3pm
–The heaviest precip will fall between 9am-4pm, and then taper off between 4-7pm from west to east
–West and northwest winds will pick up in the later afternoon and evening and gust 30-50mph, some isolated outages possible
–Lows will drop into the teens, and wind chills below zero after midnight, followed by a blustery but sunny day on Sunday with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
C to 2″ (change to snow early to mid afternoon)
–Northeast CT
–Southern CMass
2″ to 5″ (change to snow late morning to early afternoon)
–North central CT (Hartford and Tolland) and southern Litchfield
–CT River Valley (eastern Windham VT, central/eastern Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties)
–Northern Worcester County
–Southwest NH
–Please Note: if this colder solution verifies fast enough, we could see some 5″+ amounts in eastern Franklin County up into northwest Worcester and eastern Cheshire NH
5″ to 10″ (change to snow by mid morning, or all snow)
–Berkshire County
–Northern Litchfield County
–Western Hilltowns
–Southern VT west of Brattleboro
–Taconics of eastern NY
–Please Note: some areas in the southern Greens may exceed 10″
Remember the ranges offered. Just because you see 5-10″ doesn’t mean most should get in the middle, it means those areas may see as little as 5″ or as much as 10″.
Total liquid equivalent water from precipitation should be between .75-1.25″.
Ok that does it for tonight folks, I will do my best to answer questions later this evening, and will be up very early to get a jump on things, and will let you know how everything is looking then, and I’ll be with you all day long, as per usual!
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Nuts need to eat, too, so if you feel my work is worth keeping active and alive, and you want to keep this weather nut scattering seeds of weather impact news region-wide, I’m asking for your support at any level:
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Have a great night, and if you haven’t yet had a chance, you can securely contribute to my 2022 Member Drive at the link above (my drive ends in 2 weeks from Sunday, and I’m almost 40% to my goal of 5% of my readers contributing any amount).
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[FRI-7:00AM] WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO WARNINGS OVER THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SVT WEST OF BRATTLEBORO… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE WESTERN HILLTOWNS, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES, AND EASTERN WINDHAM VT (BRATTLEBORO), ALL FOR TOMORROW… FREEZING FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING, BUT WATCH FOR BLACK ICE PATCHES… GORGEOUS DAY TODAY, MORE SNOW MELT… STORMY, RAINY, SNOWY AND WINDY SATURDAY WITH HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS WEST, LIGHTER EAST… BLUSTERY AND COLD SUNDAY WITH SPRING WEATHER ARRIVING NEXT WEEK…TURN YOUR CLOCKS FORWARD AN HOUR TOMORROW NIGHT… SUPPORTED SERVICES ARE SUSTAINED, OTHERWISE THEY WITHER… YOUR ANNUAL OR MONTHLY CROWDFUNDED SUPPORT SUSTAINS THIS LOCAL COMMUNITY WEATHER RESOURCE…
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—> Reality: Currently we’re at 35% of that goal
—> Action: Join DHTWN’s Support Network today as a full 2022 Member with gifts, or as a Supporter (no gifts)
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TODAY’S DATE: Friday, March 11, 2022
Good morning everyone, we’ve got a mostly sunny start and some freezing fog in patches. However, temps will be coming up, fog will be dissipating, snow will be melting, clouds will be increasing, and a stormy Saturday and blustery Sunday are on the way to be followed by next week’s spring-like conditions, but before we dive into all of those weather details below, let’s check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with a new location in West Springfield, MA.
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
DHTWN Is Sponsored by Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company: No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily, house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence (and now West Springfield!), or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website: https://www.tandembagelco.com
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***DHTWN WEATHER REPORT***
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DAILY CELESTIAL
NOTE: Turn Clocks Forward 1 Hour Before Bed Saturday Night!
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:08am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 5:52pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 11 hours and 44 minutes
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–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 11:05am this morning
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 3:12am tomorrow morning
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Gibbous 59.7%
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DAILY TERRESTRIAL (ZoneCast)
ZONE 1 (Northern Region)
Southern VT, Southwest NH, N. Taconics NY
–High Temps: Mid to Upper 40s
–Low Temps: Low to Mid 30s
–Wind: Light southerly
–Skies: Partly to mostly sunny trending to increasing clouds
–Precipitation: None
ZONE 2 (Central Region)
WMass, N. CMass, N. Litchfield County, C./S. Taconics NY
–High Temps: Mid 40s to Low 50s
–Low Temps: Low to Mid 30s
–Wind: Light southerly
–Skies: Partly to Mostly Sunny trending to increasing clouds
–Precipitation: None
ZONE 3 (Southern Region)
S. CMass, S. Litchfield County, NC.CT, & NE.CT
–High Temps: Upper 40s to Low 50s
–Low Temps: Mid 30s
–Wind: Light southerly
–Skies: Partly to Mostly Sunny trending to increasing clouds
–Precipitation: None
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Good morning everybody, The Bulletization Mobile(TM), which is basically a hot-rodded 1950s vehicle of flamboyance that also happens to be its own sentient entity, is back at it this morning, beeping like crazy, and waking up on the neighbors…. hold on a sec…. “DUDE! Keep it down, I got it, I’ll use double-dashes and make a bulleted list!” Like a bear waking up from Winter, TBM is a bit excite, as Borat would say.
To the forecast below!
SUMMARY
–We’ve got some freezing fog patches around, and had refreezing of snow melt in many areas overnight with temps in the 20s to low 30s this morning, so keep an eye out for slick spots
–We’ve got one more sweet day ahead with highs generally in the mid 40s to low 50s from north to south, with partly to mostly sunny skies that will trend toward increasing clouds by afternoon and evening
–A light south and southwest wind won’t be too tough to take, and lows will drop into the low to mid 30s
–Our Saturday storm will be dipping down into the deep South today, picking up some Gulf of Mexico moisture tonight, and then thanks to the guidance of a potent upper level trough swinging east near Lake Ontario, will be directed northeast off of the Mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow, tracking somewhere between Montauk on the tip of Long Island or Martha’s Vineyard by afternoon
–We’ll become overcast overnight tonight, and first rain showers should arrive between 5am-8am from southwest to northeast, again, with potential for some brief freezing rain where areas are at the freezing mark, but icing should be short-lived
–By mid to late morning, we should be turning to snow in the northern Berkshires up into southern VT and west into the Taconics
–How fast that snow/rain line collapses southeast into the Pioneer Valley will be determined by exact track of the surface and mid-level lows, but for now, I think we should start to see snow by mid-day in the CT River Valley, and then CMass and northeast CT by mid afternoon
–The storm will wind down between 7-9pm and end as light snow showers for everybody
–Northwest winds will gust 25-40mph by afternoon and evening, so it will be a wintry second half to the day
–There’s a chance for sleet to develop before we fully change to snow in the valley
–I’m thinking east of the western hilltowns in WMass and all of CMass and down into northern CT we should see a coating to 3″ of snowfall, with 2-5″ over the western hilltowns, southwest NH, southeast VT, and northwest CT up into the southern Berkshires, then 5-10″ in the northern Berkshires, westernmost Franklin County, and the rest of SVT (5″ in Bennington vs. 10″ in Woodford, type of idea)
–Northern Worcester County may end up in that 2-5″ range as well, but for now, leaving it as 1-3″ there
–The bust potential with this storm is high, given we need colder air to be pulled southeast through the region – cold air that didn’t exist prior to that anticipated atmospheric mechanical action
–The areas of bust potential are around the sharpness of the accumulation lines with a more northwest low track which could be tighter than depicted above (like west side of town got 5″, and east got 2″)
–On the flip side we may end up with a bit more snow than depicted above if trends continue toward a further southeast low track, so I will update you again this late afternoon
After the storm passes and ends late Saturday night, northwest winds will continue to gust 25-40mph and temps will crash into the low to mid teens and combine to produce wind chills below zero for early Sunday morning.
Remember to turn your clocks forward one hour before bed, too!
Sunday is blustery, sunny, cold, highs either side of freezing and with lows in the 20s.
Next week is full on early Spring as we careen toward the Vernal Equinox! Hooray!
PLEASE KEEP ME AS YOUR STORM SHERPA…
I hope I’ve proven myself worthy of your support over the past 9 years, even if it’s around $15+/year or $3+/month, it all helps.
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(Cards, PayPal, Venmo and Check options)
Have a great day, and if you haven’t, you can securely contribute to my 2022 Member Drive at the link above… drive ends 3/27.