Good evening everybody, Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories continue across the region, and Dense Fog Advisories are up for CMass and southwest NH and may be extended, as there other parts of the WMass region and northern CT with fog producing visibilities of 1/4 mile or less.
The reason for the fog development is that dew point temps have come up with the advection of more moisture into the region, which is also producing more rainfall, while temps are holding in the upper 30s to mid 40s in much of the region, with low to mid 30s relegated to northwest MA and southern VT at the 6pm hour. Fog should abate after midnight.
This is a very moisture-laden frontal boundary between an Arctic high to the northwest and a milder oceanic high to the southeast, which has created a zone of convergence along where those air masses meet, and that zone of convergence causes air to meet together, be forced skyward, and to precipitate out into rainfall at first.
However, by dawn tomorrow morning (about 7am) for most of us north of the Pike, a change to freezing rain is expected, with sleet north of the Rt. 2 corridor at that time, and possibly snow mixing into northern Bennington County and northern Windham County.
NORTHERN ZONE TOTALS ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT
I still think we will end up with a coating to 2″ or 3″ from northern CT up to MA/VT-NH line or as far north as the Rt. 9 corridor in VT/NH, but it will be mostly in the form of sleet, not snow (though a little snow may accumulate by mid to late afternoon on Friday, or early evening).
This is due to the likelihood now that a weak, rather loosely circulated low pressure system will be rippling a little more north than I thought earlier, which pushes the mid-level warm air a bit further north, and holds it there for a bit longer.
TIMING
As I mentioned, parts of SVT are already starting to turn to freezing rain well north of Bennington.
By midnight, much of SVT and northern parts of SWNH, and possibly the northernmost Berkshires will be flipping or changed over to freezing rain.
Between midnight to 7am, this changeover is going to occur further south and east as sub-freezing air bleeds south behind the surface cold front and make it as far south as MA Pike, give or take.
This means that south of the Pike, especially in central/eastern Hampden County and southern CMass southward into northern CT it could still be plain rain with temps cooling through the 30s, but between 7am-11am freezing rain should develop in Hampden County, southern CMass and northern CT as well.
Icing will be marching south slowly but surely Friday morning.
Meanwhile by 7am, sleet is going to be falling in southern VT and southwest NH and pressing south into the Rt. 2 corridor, and that should spread south to the MA/CT line through the morning.
I won’t be able to tell you what it’s doing in your neighborhood at a certain time tomorrow, unfortunately, but it will be either freezing or sleet N of the Pike by 7am, the way it looks now (sleet the further north you go).
You should also know that travel is going to go downhill as the morning wears on, and especially afternoon when we all fall into he 20s and freezing rain overspreads northern CT and sleet overspreads SVT, SWNH, WMass and CMass, with snow in distant/northern parts of southern VT and southwest NH heading toward Rutland and over to Springfield, VT.
Folks north of the Pike may end as some snow by late afternoon into early evening, with additional light snow accumulations possible in SVT and SWNH, but most of the accumulation will be in the form of sleet, and we’ll also have ice accretion as well.
Then at night, temps continue to fall through the teens and land in the single numbers to low teens with little wind and about zero chance to dry any of the ground surfaces up, so everything will freeze solid and black ice will become an issue.
AMOUNTS
A general coating to 3″ of sleet and snow from northern CT up to the Rt. 9 corridor in SVT and SWNH (Bennington to Brattleboro to Keene).
I think most of that amount is in the form of sleet.
North of the Rt. 9 corridor in SVT and SWNH we should see 2-5″ of snow and sleet, and it’s possible some spots reach a half foot or more in northern Bennington, Windham and Cheshire Counties, and on north of there it’s white gold for ski country.
BUST POTENTIAL
This isn’t really a bust potential, per se, but all I am saying is that cold air is powerful, and its track southeast into the region tomorrow morning may overwhelm that surface low and produce a thicker near-surface sub-freezing layer, which could flip many of us to sleet faster than I am currently expecting.
This would bring the ribbon of heaviest sleet accumulations further south into WMass and CMass, whereas right now the heaviest sleet accumulations (1 to 2″) looks to fall Rt. 2 on north.
That does it for tonight folks, the bottom line is a big ol’ icy mess is coming tomorrow and travel will be substantially negatively impacted, and is discouraged as the day wears on and icing develops.
I will be up very early in the morning to begin observations and will post here sometime around 6:30am to 6:45am.
Have a great night!
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6:50AM-THURS: YOUR MORNING MESS-CAST INCLUDES RAIN TODAY WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS NOW HOISTED FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW INCLUDING SVT, SWNH, NORTHERN BERKSHIRES, FRANKLIN COUNTY, WESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY, AND NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION SOUTH OF THERE… THIS LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE AN ICE STORM WITH MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN, AND SOME SNOW AT THE END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON… SVT AND SWNH GET THE MOST SNOW… FLASH FREEZE BY SATURDAY MORNING… NICE WEEKEND AHEAD…
Good morning folks, the main story is that after our rainy Thursday we have a real mess on the way with a lousy Friday morning commute expected tomorrow with freezing rain and sleet (and some snow at the end) for most of us, with snow/sleet in the far northern Berkshires, westernmost Franklin County up into SVT and southwest NH where the most snow falls. It all flash freezes Friday night, but before we dive into the sloppy details below, let’s check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with a new location in West Springfield, MA.
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DISCUSSION:
Good morning everybody, we’ve already got rain moving into the WMass region as I type. The only exception to that is that some snow may be mixing in or falling in the southern Greens of VT. In addition, the Colrain and Cummington areas had some temps at freezing, so freezing rain may briefly cause some slick spots in the western hilltowns, with a few flakes mixed in possible.
The trend is all rain today as we have very mild temps already, and we’ll get substantial snow melt today with highs cresting into the low to mid 40s.
Meanwhile, we have an extensive cold front draped from Lake Ontario southwestward all the way to eastern TX with no less than 5 weak low centers noted along it, set within a large, positively-tilted trough (i.e. oriented in a forward leaning, northeast to southwest orientation) with giant high pressure to the northwest, and a bit weaker high pressure to our south.
This giant frontal boundary packed to the gills with Gulf of Mexico moisture will continue to track towards our region.
In addition, much colder air is poised to our north, which will start to bleed into southern VT, the northern Berkshires/Taconics and northern Cheshire County NH between 7-10pm tonight, when rain should start mixing with freezing rain and sleet up that way.
From that point forward, it will be a battle of the low pressure centers rippling up the front trying to maintain the mid-level warm air as this surface cold bleeds southeast at the surface and underneath that warm air aloft, tracking through the WMass region from midnight through late morning. This cold sub-freezing surface layer will be shallow at first, and then thicken higher up into the sky from the surface about a mile up.
This is what will transition us from rain to freezing rain and sleet during the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning and into the daylight hours of Friday morning which will make Friday morning an icy mess, especially in WMass and CMass.
In southern VT and southwest NH and possibly the northern Berkshires and northwestern Franklin County towns bordering with VT we should be mixing with snow, or fully changed to snow between 6-10am from north to south in that sub-region (best chance for all snow at this time would likely be the northern halves of Bennington, Windham and Cheshire Counties in VT and NH).
Folks, I’m not going to be able to time out exactly when you will see freezing rain, and when you will see sleet, and for that I apologize.
It’s too complicated, and the best I can tell you is that I believe everywhere north of the Pike will be seeing a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and possibly south of there, though except for Litchfield County, plain rain may hold on in northern CT until 6-9am, before flipping to some form of ice.
Some areas could see up to three-tenths of an inch of ice accretion, and I think that much of WMass should see a period of moderate to even heavy sleet with sleet accumulations of up to an inch or so.
By late morning into early afternoon, we should see ice changing over to snow further south into WMass, but still north of the Pike. I don’t think areas along and south of the Pike will see any real snow accumulation, and should see mostly sleet before this whole mess quits by late Friday.
The only caveat to this is if the final surface low that passes south of Long Island Friday afternoon produces a small-scale snow band to its north as it ripples by, which could produce a just-in-time light snow accumulation into areas south of the Pike, but it’s such an outlier chance I’m not including it for now.
As for totals I am leaving them as a coating to 2″ of mostly sleet with some snow from northern CT to the Rt. 2 corridor.
I think 2-5″ of snow and sleet will accumulate in the northern Berkshires, Franklin and Worcester Counties along and north of the Rt. 2 corridor, and up into the southern halves of southern VT and southwest NH.
There will likely be sections of 5-10″ in the southern Green Mountains of VT east of Bennington and well west of Brattleboro in the southern half of SVT, and then I think 5-10″ should be more widespread in the northern halves of Bennington, Windham and Cheshire Counties in SVT and SWNH.
Again, all accumulations include snow AND sleet.
After the snow and ice quits Friday afternoon or early evening, Friday morning temps in the mid to upper 20s will crash into the single digits later at night, freezing everything solid, so again, make sure your paths and driveways are in good shape, as the weekend will be sunny, fair, but cold and below-freezing the whole time.
Milder and fair weather with highs in the 30s is expected for the first half of next week.
I will provide a comprehensive report this evening and try to dissect things as best I can, but the bottom line is this:
–Rain today, highs 40s
–Ice tonight in SVT/SWNH/northern Berkshires
–Ice spreads southeast overnight into most of WMass and CMass into the early morning while parts of SVT/SWNH turn to snow
–Friday AM commute is lousy and icy, plenty of sleet Friday morning in WMass with some freezing rain/ice glaze
–By late morning into afternoon we transition into snow before it quits by evening
–Mostly light accumulations of ice and snow, with a moderate snowfall further north into northern parts of SVT and SWNH
–Flash freeze late Friday night, clean up the areas where your feet and wheels touch the Earth
Have a great day, and I will update you with a more detailed report tonight!